Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[jeffers]

"As far as the aftermath goes, a big-city hotel is actually a pretty good survival shelter: solid concrete and steel construction, wide stairways, and plenty of sleeping space. Water is readily available in a hotel:
every toilet in the building will have 1-3 gallons of clean, drinkable water in its tank, and then there are the big hot water heater tanks and indoor swimming pools that can be drained. The toilets won't flush
anymore of course, but human waste can be disposed of by simply throwing it off a balcony."

The toilets will flush just fine if you pour some water in the tank. Flood or salt water preferably, but it'll get rid of the waste.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

Anyone want to say when the ACLU put in its first lawsuit for checking people's belongings while waiting online? or is it something else? They will figure their way into this, I am sure.

You would lose a bet on this one. The ACLU is not going to sue a black, Dim, mayor, or a female, Dim, governor.

[the Deejay]

I'm praying Shep knows how to take care of himself.

Me, too! Shep's not a fool.

Did ya hear what he said about what may happen to the above ground graves in New Orleans? "It could be quite a mess." (no kiddin'.) I had thought about this & Shep said it.......

[Peach]

Did I read correctly on here that no food is being provided in that shelter?

Just what was this Plan we keep hearing the City officials talk about? Let everyone fend for themselves? This is what we pay taxes for? I am LIVID!!!!

[bert]

There has been mention of potential wind damage to the Dome. The question is what was the engineering design criteria?

For reference I looked at the Southern Satandard Building code used by New Orleans. This code is (was) widely used all across the southern United states. The only one I have at home is the 1979 edition. It should be close.

Section 1205.1 says that design pressures in pounds per square foot shall be based on tabulated values for the area in question based on Figure 1205.1 giving basic wind speed in miles per hour for the 100 year mean recurrance level.

New Orleans lies between the 100 mph and 110 mph gradient lines. That is to say, the highest 100 year occurance wind speed is between 100 and 110 mph at 30 feet above ground level. For reference, these lines follow the coastal aresacross the gulf, around Florida and north to Maine. The 120 MPH and 130 mph lines begin in south florida and around florida north to the Virginia capes. A link for a current similar chart is here. Note the value shown now is 150 mph and in 1979 was 110 mph. This does not necessarily mean the structures are under designed. It will be complex to sort out the relations between wind load pressures in psf and wind speeds in mph in the different editions. I can't do it for this post.

The tabulated values for the 110 mph zone vary from 24 psf at ground level to 57 psf for structures between 201 and 300 feet high. These values can be adjusted up or down to allow for the shape of the building. That is, the spherical dome has complex wind action where pressures are not uniform over the building surface.

As much as I would like to report that the Dome is designed to withstand a specific wind speed I can't because the Southern Building code is based on wind pressure at specific levels given in pounds per square feet. It should also be noted that the code requirements are minimums and for monumental structures the design criteria are increased. Also, a structure like the dome was likely modeled and the model tested or wind reaction.

[bored at work]

keepin a visual on it . . .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[NautiNurse]

See the link at top of the thread for Katrina Track Archives. It will tell you exactly what they predicted for each advisory update.

[Age of Reason]

Same thing applies in any building--even a private home: one can picture people inside their houses retreating to the upper floors as the water rises, until they are in their attics under their roofs.

Should the water continue to rise, they will need to break through their roofs to climb outside.

I have heard the authorities have been cautioning peoople to have a hammer or axe on hand for this reason.

[mhking]

What do you mean by "criminal class?"

[hole_n_one]

FNC doom and gloom forecast continues to get worse.

[stlnative]

Are you going to be staying up all night?

[B-Chan]

It's nice to hear a calm, steady voice on this thread...

I appreciate the compliment, but to tell you the truth I'm just as scared shitless about this as are the rest of you! My post was nothing more than my weak attempt to keep up hope while trying not to lose my own fudge. A man can live a couple of months without food, a week without water, and five minutes without air, but without hope none of us can survive from one moment to the next.

We can't hold back the storm. Whatever God allows to happen in New Orleans, our job is to keep our morale and spirits up so that we can effectively help them -- the victims of this storm -- recover.

[pollyannaish]

It's also common sense. A can is a lot harder to crush when it is intact.

[YaYa123]

MSNBC is showing the mayor of New Orleans is in the studio of a New Orleans NBC affiliate. HE"S AN IDIOT!!!!!

he just said when he got the call last night from Jim, "what's his name", Maxwell, and he scared the "you know what out of me. He's asking the meteologist stupid questions!!! He's sitting at a desk with the anchor and weather guy, leaning back in his chair, like he's in his den. Blank look on his face. No authority in his voice.

I CAN"T BELIEVE WHAT I"VE JUST SEEN.

the MSNBC anchorette quoted the mayor as saying 75 to 80 percent of the city has been evacuated. It's WDSU-TV

[beyond the sea]

If the field inside the stadium is below sea level, the crowd in the stands might panic when they see the water rising inside the building.

That's possible I guess........ if they can see it.

[cll]

Chubbs are better. For the entire body. (this should be a commercial).

[WestCoastGal]

"WHAT?? This is the designated emergency shelter...how can they NOT provide food and water? This is nuts. "

They said earlier today this is not a Red Cross emergency center. BUT, I also heard them say the National Guard would bring food & water? Did they change that?

[11th_VA]

N.O. Mayor Ray Nagin due on their set in a few moments. I'm not overly impressed with him

Where do you rank him on the Chief Moose scale ???

[Tall_Texan]

NO mayor on MSNBC right now. Local affiliate feed.

[mtbopfuyn]

People just love a good scary story, and there's a lot of that going on, here, and particularly with the news media, who stand to gain ratings by exaggerating the threat, IMHO.

Totally agree.