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Posted on 08/28/2005 2:38:16 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.
Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
"They aren't, but they're also not hosted on each FReeper's computer. That's the bandwidth that's being saved each time we refresh the thread."
You do know that there is an option in your browswer to tell it not to automatically load images ?
"Agreed. It'll be bad, but I highly doubt as bad as folks here are making it out to be. I'll wager that the casualty count may be in the hundreds, but not the 40-100K that we've seen predicted by some'
Don't forget there are alot of people in remote bayous - but in looking at the latest radar, it seems likes its going to hit well west of NO
Jim, have you heard from ABG? Did he move to a higher location?
That is a possibility, but this storm could also affect the SPR -- for instance, it is possible that the Iberville facility could be affected directly by this storm.
Also, I believe that the headquarters for the SPR is in New Orleans, isn't it?
That still leaves the other three storage sites as unlikely to be directly affected (certainly the two in Texas), but I also wonder how big of a hit we could take in our refining capacity in the wake of Katrina...
Good PR for them and might impress the naysayers here.
Don't you know He now does online polls? Right now we're at 1248 for, 196 against intervention.
Material possessions and buildings mean nothing, but the people.........
Not quite.
An eye that grows larger is an indication of weakening. An eye that is stably large is a different creature altogether.
2. WIND IS WIND
Aerodynamic forces are induced as air flows over and around buildings. As a result, the greatest outward (or uplift) wind pressures occur around windward walls, roof corners, eaves, and ridges. The damage due to wind typically involves the removal of wall cladding and roof coverings at these locations. Damage surveys by McDonald and Marshall [1983] after tornadoes and Savage [1984] after hurricanes have revealed the same types of building response regardless of the phenomenon creating the wind.
Mehta et al. [1975] and Abernathy [1976] determined that large-span structures, such as auditoriums and gymnasiums, are quite vulnerable in high winds owing to their large surface areas which induce large loads. Such buildings have been just as susceptible to wind damage in hurricanes as in tornadoes. The general consensus now is that people should avoid shelter in auditoriums and gymnasiums during any type of windstorm.
3. BUILDINGS DO NOT EXPLODE
It was once thought that the low pressure within tornadoes caused buildings to explode. This theory was based on the erroneous assumption that a building somehow remains structurally intact after passing the radius of maximum winds on the periphery of the tornado. Furthermore, the theory assumes that the building remained sealed such that the barometric pressure inside the building can become significantly greater than outside.
Studies of tornado damage presented by Mehta [1976] and Minor [1976] indicated that building damage initiates from wind pressure breaching the building, not from low barometric pressure. The wind typically enters the building through broken windows or doors. Evidence of mud, insulation, glass shards, and wood missiles inside buildings that remain partially intact indicate wind had entered the buildings. Openings on the windward side of a building actually increase the internal wind pressures, resulting in additional uplift on the roof (Figure 1). Thus persons are no longer advised to open their windows in advance of a tornado. Another reason is that flying debris will likely break the windows anyway; thus people should use any advance warning time to seek appropriate shelter rather than opening windows.
With huge hurricanes like this, ones that appear they may be annular in nature...huge eyes do NOT denote weakening at all.
I would totally love to flame you but damn, you are just right!!! Prayers going up from Wisconsin!!!
That's not entirely true: hurricanes can have a wide range of eye diameters for the same intensity. What is indicative of weakening is either a widening of an existing eye, or the replacement of the existing eye with a larger one (Eyewall replacement cycle). Conversely, a contracting eye usually means intensification. It's not the eye's diameter necessarily, but how the eye is evolving that really matters.
I have never had a chance to see the French Quarter. I hope I do some day. :O(
...you may have to go somewhere in Alabama to see the french quarter after this...
Doogle
What's worse is that in addition to the increased gas prices, say hello to gas lines.
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/NWSTornado/
MYTH:Windows should be opened before a tornado approaches to equalize pressure and minimize damage.
FACT: Opening windows allows damaging winds to enter the structure. Leave the windows alone; instead, immediately go to a safe place.
That's very right........ if true.
Yes, but can we get room service?
I stayed in the highrise NOLA Westin right on Canal Street overlooking the French Quarter. Don't think I'd want to be there today, but it would be a fascinating place from which to watch the storm. And people and stuff flying past the windows.
I'm not taking this lightly. I went to church this morning here on the left coast to pray for NOLA.
True, but I don't have to worry much about that (the source's bandwidth is more of a limiting factor than mine). It also leaves an ugly red X.
Cracking windows is a bad mistake. Even the worst hurricane/tornado will only change air pressure by 10% - not enough to collapse or explode a house. But wind blowing into a house can lift the roof right off.
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