Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[not-alone]

I'm praying it doesn't slow down. Andrew moved fast and that saved a lot of people. Hugo sat over St Thomas for hours and hours with 140 mph winds.

[newzjunkey]

Andrew was Cat 4 but was re-categorized 10 yrs later based on new information. It's now officially a Cat 5.

[cyborg]

Fox News has weather coverage now. I guess it's too early in the morning as yet.

[RepublicanArmy]

I f I heard the woman on wdsu right a few minutes ago she was saying that one strengthed to sustained winds of over 200 mph when it made landfall so I'm guessing it's possible.... Specially given the fact that the path it will take brings it over water that just keeps getting hotter...

[tiredoflaundry]

NO will look like a scene out of Day After Tomorrow.

That's what I'm afraid of.

[mewzilla]

Well, here's hoping. Entropy is increasing and all that, right? :)

[cincinnati65]

Not a bad idea. I remember one time in the early 90's, there was a mandatory evacuation for New Orleans with another hurricane (that eventually missed the city). All hotels and shelters were filled from Birmingham to Dallas and as far north as St. Louis.

Displacing roughly 1 million people by car in this short a time is logistically impossible. I'm very concerned for people being stuck out on the road when this thing hits.

[cincinnati65]

Camille....

[cyborg]

Well they're going to have to DRAG people out of there. I know there are so people who refuse to leave. I just had a thought. All those cemetaries getting flooded with water will create a contaminated situation.

[RepublicanArmy]

Thank you haven't gotten much sleep yet so I can nap today cause tonight & tomorrow will be a long haul...

[LikeLight]

It's not as if it starts with a fixed amount of energy and gradually loses it - - - the hot water in the ocean combined with the favorable atmospheric conditions allows it to keep growing and building - - - if the conditions change (cooler water, shearing winds, etc.) it will weaken, but if they don't then it can sustain itself . . .

[LA Woman3]

Local radio is talking about backup in traffic. Everyone is wanting to go West to Texas.

[cincinnati65]

Camille did, in the 60's

[OwenKellogg]

Regarding the airlift...keep in mind that it took six months to move 500,000 troops to the Middle East for Gulf War 1. There are not enough military airplanes to even make a dent in the NO evacuation.

Assuming you could scramble 100 C-130s and 50 C-5, C-141, C17 types (a doubtful probability), you could only board about 15,000 people. The airport would be utter chaos, the roads leading to the airport would be too congested, it just couldn't work.

I hope for the best in NO, but an airlift attempt will create more problems than it would solve.

[cyborg]

Why only a few lanes open on this highway they keep showing?

[mewzilla]

All those cemetaries getting flooded with water will create a contaminated situation.

Not just the cemetaries. Sewage, chemicals, gas...It'll me a poisonous mixture. Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

[LA Woman3]

Well they're going to have to DRAG people out of there. I know there are so people who refuse to leave.


You are right! They all say the same thing, "It will turn"....

[Right_in_Virginia]

Regarding the airlift...keep in mind that it took six months to move 500,000 troops to the Middle East for Gulf War 1. There are not enough military airplanes to even make a dent in the NO evacuation.

Damn. Just damn.

[tiredoflaundry]

You make a great point, the danger doesn't lie strictly with the wind & the rain...The flooding is the biggest danger! Contaminates in the water, bugs, snakes,etc....... I say the biggest because as the storm passes the rain & wind goes away. The flooding stays for days !

[cincinnati65]

I'm not sure why EVERYONE seems to be taking that one way out. Everytime I've seen the Causeway Bridge, it's wide open with traffic flying across it.