Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Torie]

Would refugees be stranded in the nosebleed sections?

Yup, but being trapped is better than being drowned. An alternative is to break into an office building on Canal Street, and climb up a few flights.

[rdl6989]

It looks like a couple models, not counting xtrp, are showing a bit further west.

[Sprite518]

LOL! Yes on the surface that does not sound like a bright plan. However, they may know something we do not. I am not sure, but I am sure they have some type of sense down there.

[blam]

" Thus that dam is under tremendous pressure, which if it fails will cause the Mississippi to flow down the Atchafalaya River whipping out everything in its path, including I think Morgan City."

You are correct. I would wipe-out Morgan City.

[AntiGuv]

Nice graphic. Thanks for posting!

[rwfromkansas]

Gas will shoot up extremely high on Monday possibly even start tomorrow....at least that is what I think.

[CajunConservative]

I agree, I was talking about Hitlery ;) Can you imagine the peril on a national scale?

[Tarheel]

And you know what? We're gonna re-elect her, too. KKKathleen is one of the more popular governors in the country and will not have a serious challenge in '07. Makes me sick.

After what I heard today anyone who voted for her would have to be brain dead. Her comments about 'this being a positive experience for everyone as long as we cooperate' were more than I could stand. Ah, forget about it!

[NautiNurse]

lol--I've never been told officially that was the cause...I thought it was my singing.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Is that 20' at the coast, or at NO? Apparently the complex of levees protecting the south bank communities would blunt some of this from the south (or at least the wave action), but would the winds along the storm's topside from the east produce the max surge heights that the overall movement from the south produces? Also, I have yet to recall a hurricane where the storm surge (AFAWK) actually was as high as predicted. But then again, there is a big difference between 10' and 20'.

Decades of knowing the catastrophic risk, yet they never could convince themselves to fund more than a Maginot Levee.

[Crazieman]

Third is 1935, Florida Keys. Unnamed, obviously.

[ImphClinton]

Sobering read.

[nwctwx]

Here's the last two, including the one I just put up. Some are further west initially, but most are a tad east at landfall.

http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/27_18z_modeltracks.jpg
http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/28_0z_modeltracks.jpg

[Strategerist]

There were 3 main events for the 1811-1812 sequence, all now regarded as Moment magnitude 7 to 8....and of course many 5-6 range aftershocks interspersed within them.

The North American continent wasn't and isn't ripping apart. The earthquakes occured on a a very old "failed" rift wher the continent began to split and stopped. The general stress of the movement of North America westwards does build up in the rift and cause the quakes, but the continent is not separating in the NMSZ and isn't going to.

[Flux Capacitor]

----After what I heard today anyone who voted for her would have to be brain dead.----

*ding ding ding ding ding*

[M. Espinola]

Miss Nash has evidently never heard of Camille.

MAJOR HURRICANES TO ENTER THE GULF COAST (1900 - 2004).

[fatima]

You are a 1.

[simon says what]

Katrina will be worse. Camille was a very small, storm, more like a large tornado. Katrina is big, affecting a much wider area for a longer duration with more rain.

Camille was a large storm.

Satellite picture

[Bogey78O]

On a clear night you can pick up WWL all the way to Tennessee

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Dang, I said this storm reminded me of Betsy...looking at the chart you linked to, and the strike probability charts I've been seeing, they look mighty close to each other...