Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Gabz]

You're right. Up the Chesapeake or Delaware is not quite as plausible as the gulf coast - HOWEVER.....you think about how narrow NJ is between the Atlantic and the Bay at the Salem location......

But storms up either bay are both feasible.

[Torie]

There is this critical breakwater dam on the Mississippi (maybe 150 miles up or so, I am not sure), thwarting nature because the natural slow of the Mississippi due to silting is now due south from that dam. Thus that dam is under tremendous pressure, which if it fails will cause the Mississippi to flow down the Atchafalaya River whipping out everything in its path, including I think Morgan City. Louisiana is a state insurance companies should avoid.

[spycatcher]

Nice multi-model map

[Strategerist]

XTRP is simply a straight line extrapolation of the storm's motion for the last (either 6 or 12) hours. It's not a model.

[staytrue]

stats on Camille and I'm thinking that Katrina won't be anywhere that bad

Katrina will be worse. Camille was a very small, storm, more like a large tornado. Katrina is big, affecting a much wider area for a longer duration with more rain.

[AntiGuv]

Hugo was most definitely a 4 at landfall (135mph), and I was outside like an idiot not too far inland (about 60 miles). It's hard to imagine anything much worse than that. I shudder to think what a 5 is like on the coast..

[kinghorse]

It's not like the city and fed have been sitting around in a state of helplessness for the last 30 years. And it's going between Houston and Lake Charles.

/ducks

[alancarp]

The "XTRP model" is merely an "extrapolation" of the current direction, if it were to never change. Provided as a point of reference.

[nwctwx]

XTRP is just an extrapolation of the current track. It is not a model.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the model--can you tell us what subtle differences are in this run from the last one?

[MplsSteve]

Speaking of the 1935 Keys Hurricane, here's a link you might like:

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialreports/sotc/storm1/page1.html

There's a book you might like about this hurricane:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0792280105/ref=sib_dp_pt/102-9525205-0256946#reader-link

[metmom]

I remember that Andrew was a five also. I don't think it was as big because while it leveled Homestead, I don't remember that caused that much destuction elsewhere. I think it was small and tight and powerful. I believe I heard the same about Camille. They thought in those days that small was safer but found out differently. I have some good hurricane videos I need to watch again to brush up on this stuff.

[Jedidah]

Pardon my ignorance. I'm here on the (hot) rolling plains of North Texas, and I don't know that much about New Orleans. I keep hearing about plans to use the Dome as an emergency shelter. If the city is below sea level, how much of the Dome would be above water if it flooded? Would refugees be stranded in the nosebleed sections?

Sorry, but this doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

[sonsofliberty2000]

Thanks. In other words NO may have dodged many bullets in the past, but this time they are going to have to bite the bullet.

[JUMPIN JEHOSPOHAT]

This map shows two Cat 5 hurricanes

LANDFALLING HURRICANES 1950-2004

[tortoise]

I have read about animals acting crazy before disastrous events, like the big New Madrid earthquake in 1805 (I should check the date).

1811-1812 (*cough*).

The interesting thing about the New Madrid quake is that is often given as a period of time rather than as a specific point in time. There were many violent earthquakes during this period, not just one. When you consider that the geological explanation for that event was the North American continent ripping itself into two pieces, it seems more reasonable.

[Crazieman]

Parts of the city are below sea level. The dome is in one of those spots that aren't.

[nwctwx]

Looks like a slight shift to the east from earlier runs. I haven't looked at each individually though, was out all evening.

[CajunConservative]

I know. Sometimes we deserve what we get. I do my best to change things. I want people out there to know that we aren't all stupid and incompetent. However, there's just enough corruption to keep things from changing. We just have to keep hammering the truth until things change.

[shield]

Tell him the last crash of FR was due to the hurricane threads...maybe that'll help him to understand.