Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[LA Woman3]

She mentioned the nursing home was behind the Jefferson Hospital. I'm assuming, Jefferson Parish, which would be New Orleans.
Did anyone else hear the call?

[southernnorthcarolina]

As if the problems New Orleans faces weren't enough -- lying as it does between the Mississippi River and Lake Ponchartrain, much of it near or a few feet below sea level and protected by levees which may be overtopped by the storm surge -- there are wind problems peculiar to urban areas which should be considered.

I'm sure everyone here has experienced a breezy day in the burbs, and then gone downtown, and noted that the wind speed was considerably higher. In any city big enough to have 20 or 40 story buildings, the narrow streets between such buildings become wind tunnels. A 15 mph breeze in the burbs can easily become 25 or 30 downtown. Certainly the "canyon effect" applies to downtown New Orleans, as well as to the high-rise condo/hotel areas of the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast.

We don't have much experience with even Cat 3 winds hitting a high-rise cluster. Andrew, though extremely powerful, was quite small in area, and though it devastated south Miami suburbs, did not hit the high-rises of Miami Beach or downtown Miami with anything like its maximum punch. When Camille hit the Mississippi coast in 1969, there were no tall buildings to speak of -- certainly not a group of them sufficient to make a wind tunnel. And Hugo? Charleston, its landfall, is mostly a low-rise and mid-rise city, with steeples being the most prominent skyline features. Hugo did do some significant damage to downtown Charlotte buildings, about 200 miles inland. There was evidence of wind speeds in the downtown Charlotte "canyons" considerably higher than the winds recorded at the airport (80-90 if I recall correctly).

So what will happen in downtown New Orleans if Katrina hits the area as a Cat 3, Cat 4, or, God forbid, a Cat 5 storm? In addition to wind speeds being accelerated through the narrow gaps between buildings, you have the problem of flying debris. You say you're confident the heavy-framed commercial fixed glass windows in your office building can withstand a 120 mph wind? Fine, maybe they can. But can they withstand a piece of plywood from the construction site next door moving at 120 mph? Or a chunk of roofing material from the next block?

Once the debris, accelerated by the wind tunnel effect, starts flying downtown, more and more debris will become airborne, as more windows get broken. The longer the wind blows, the more airborne debris there will be. And if New Orleans gets hit with Cat 4+ winds, structural failure of some high-rises becomes a real possibility.

[LadyPilgrim]

I didn't mean to not answer you...I'm trying to cook up all my meat, because we will be without power for a while, if this all plays out like they say!

I'm in and out of the kitchen right now.;-)

God bless us all!

[kenth]

"Mayor and City Council are to blame IMHO."

I agree and add the governor as well. They, excuse my language, pissed away crucial hours that were needed to get people out.

But mandatory would have meant that they actually execute plans to get people to relative safety. It was so much easier to wait and just throw open the doors of some supposed shelter. Being a leader is supposed to be a status symbol, not actual work.

[null and void]

Meanwhile, CA sits blissfully hurricane and oil platform free, the selfish slackers.

It's part of our secret plan to have the world's only oil supply when everything else runs dry...

[LibFreeOrDie]

An official from Jefferson Parish just on WWL-TV said that there are no safe shelters in NO. The Red Cross left NO years ago, because it determined that there is no place in NO to set up shelters where people would be safe.

He said he can't call for a mandatory evac because he doesn't have the personnel to go door-to-door.

Another official just said that everyone should have left the city yesterday!

[Founding Father]

Jefferson Parish EOC expecting 10-12 ft surge over the levee; ability to pump out may be limited. Pumps electrical and diseal (diseal and water don't mix); pumps located on/near levees and may be damaged;expect a disaster.

[IndyTiger]

I wouldn't want to be in the Superdome either...once power goes out and plumbing stops working, it will be a nightmare scenario.

[Michael Goldsberry]

Fox is reporting sustained winds of 175 MPH!

Holy Crap!

I'm back down at the Galveston house now just in case this monster swings West.

Prayers for my neighbors in Louisiana. Y'all come on over here to Texas quick! We'll cook you up some BBQ.

[El Gran Salseron]

One of the smart ones got out as recently as 1971. :-)

[spectre]

Strange you should mention 9/11.

We are going to be sitting at home, again...witnessing another unthinkable disaster.

Thank God for Free Republic.

sw

[spycatcher]

The sound engineer should be fired ASAP. This is 2005 and it's the President of the U.S.

[NautiNurse]

New thread Hurricane Katrina, Part V

[pax_et_bonum]

That Mayor is an idiot to be kind! Cannot believe they waited this long either which should be criminal.

Agreed.

They've made very poor decisions and have shown themselves to be unworthy of their leadership positions.

[bannie]

Thanks, Jim.

In my opinion, the Salvation Army is the most honest, most honorable group of this type in the USA. I have no affiliation with them other than my deepest admiration!

When I offer my charitable support, it always goes to The Salvation Army and the Shriners.

BOTH are honorable and legitimate.

[TomGuy]

Current satellite view:



Edge winds just hitting southermost shore.

[Revel]

"Something happened how many years ago...and it still causes you to hate the Red Cross?"

There is plenty happening today that gives me reason to despise the red cross. Including there firing employees who don't want to participate in there gay pride events. And I know from experience that they like to hype up what they are doing to the media when in fact they are doing almost nothing in some cases.

[Laurita]

They'll go back. It will be rebuilt. That's the amazing thing, whoever is left STILL won't want to live anywhere else and they'll go back. Just like Bangledesh. People always go back.

[PhiKapMom]

I forgot the idiot Governor. All a bunch of morons that never believed something like this would happen. They are now talking about total devastation and loss of life. This is unbelieveable that they had no plan earlier.

[mware]

I told them Jefferson Hospital.