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Posted on 08/27/2005 8:05:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
On the 27th at 8:45 a.m.
They're waiting for the President to order them to use the southbound lanes for northbound traffic. < /sarcasm>
Urgent prayers for these poor people. Hopefully somebody with some sense will get in there and open up the bottleneck and get those people fleeing much more quickly.
;-)
The contraflow is in place--just beyond the web cam views. All lanes are outbound from NO to BR.
and what do you know, it is tracking per the NHC schedule. This is NOT going to Mobile. DT is so stubborn.
I repeat.......this is NOT going to Mobile.
GET OUT OF NO NOW!!!!!! It will likely go to your east a bit, but as strong as this is, that will not matter.
As per this site http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=47645
it may be making a north turn. A glimmer of hope for NO but still no way to avoid unbelievable damage. It's so big that there doesn't have to be a direct hit for catastrophe. I don't know about the rest of you, but I have been tearing up all morning. I just can't grasp the scope of this. And the weather experts on this site can't stop saying Holy S***. If they are speechless, it's going to be worse then we can imagine.
Yep, I think that's why they are called public servants, right?
I think the last observation pointed out "perfect stadium effect". I lost track of what post I saw that on though.
Katrina/Camille comparison:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=47646
Storm aims for heart of U.S. oil industry
Gas prices may jump sharply
Sunday, August 28, 2005
By BEN RAINES
Staff Reporter
Oil traders closed business on Friday confident that Hurricane Katrina would hit too far to the east to affect the price of oil and natural gas.
That was before the National Hurricane Center shifted the storm's possible path to a more westerly track that slices through the nation's main oil artery and could result in record prices for a barrel of crude within a matter of days.
If Hurricane Katrina holds true to predictions and tracks north through the toe of Louisiana's boot, much of the nation's oil and natural gas infrastructure will be exposed to 140 mile per hour winds, 30- to 50-foot waves, and water current speeds of around 20 knots all the way from the surface to the sea floor.
"This storm is going to pass through the meat of the oil and gas fields. The whole country will feel it, because it's going to cripple us and the country's whole economy," said Capt. Buddy Cantrelle with Kevin Gros Offshore, which supplies rigs via a fleet of large crew vessels.
Nation's oil center
The equipment located in the storm's likely path includes the bulk of the nation's oil and gas production platforms, thousands of miles of pipelines and -- perhaps most importantly for national gasoline prices -- much of the country's refinery capacity. In addition, the south Louisiana coastline serves as the entry point for around a third of the nation's imported oil.
Last year's Hurricane Ivan, which came ashore along the Alabama-Florida line moving through an area mostly devoid of rigs, caused widespread destruction both above and below water in the fields off Alabama and eastern Louisiana. Floating rigs were found drifting hundreds of miles from the wells they had been plumbing, while some rigs with legs fixed to the bottom toppled into the sea. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pipelines were tangled and torn to pieces by sea currents and massive underwater mudslides.
The full extent of the damage wasn't known for days and the Gulf lost nearly 30 percent of production capacity for well over a month, which drove prices for oil up $12 a barrel within a few weeks. Prices for both oil and natural gas surged upward and stayed high for months.
Major threat
But that storm was just a baby tap on the Gulf's infrastructure compared with the blow some in the oil industry are predicting from Katrina.
"No matter where it hits at this point, it's going to hit a lot of rigs, and the whole country is going to notice," Cantrelle said. "And if this thing comes up through Port Fourchon like they're calling for right now, well, that's where 30 percent of the country's oil comes ashore. They are forecasting 40-foot seas for Fourchon."
Port Fourchon, located at the tail end of a barely there two-lane highway just a foot or two above sea level, sits exposed to the sea almost like an island lighthouse thanks to the loss of thousands of acres of marsh that once surrounded it. The port complex -- like that skinny strip of a highway now so low and close to the water that fishermen use parts of the shoulder as a miles-long boat ramp -- has been rendered ever more vulnerable by the massive erosion of Louisiana's coastal marshes.
"A storm of this magnitude, we're expecting some serious damage here," C.J. Cheramie with the Fourchon Port Police said Saturday afternoon. "They started evacuating the rigs once the storm got into the Gulf. We haven't seen any helicopter traffic in awhile, suggesting that everyone has made it in. We are evacuating inland. We'll try to reopen the port as quickly as we can. ... there's just no way to predict what will happen with a storm this size."
Cheramie said he hadn't heard about a helicopter crash reported earlier in the day. Cantrelle, with the crew boat company, told the Register that one of his boats picked up all three passangers unharmed after their copter was forced to ditch into the ocean on its way back to shore.
Thousands of the 5,000 rig platforms in the Gulf are located in the predicted path of the storm, and many of them are aging. In previous storms, it has been the older rigs that most often end up wrecked.
"Lot of these jack-up rigs, we've been towing them around for 25 or 30 years. These things are getting to be pretty old," said Bobby Autin, with Louisiana International Marine, a rig towing company. "The storm shifted so fast nobody really had a chance to do much but get the people off the rigs. We didn't move any. I sent all of my boats to Texas."
Lots of work ahead
Autin said that as soon as Katrina makes landfall he will scramble his boats back toward Fourchon because he expects there will be a lot of work.
"There are always going to be rigs in trouble after a storm like this. We may have to tow some, or some we will even hold in place if they've tipped over until they can get to them to work on," Autin said. "We were all stunned earlier this year by Cindy when it came through. It was just a tropical storm and it did a lot of damage offshore. They're saying this storm is on the same track. Imagine what it's going to be like if a category 5 comes rolling through these rigs."
thanks
Also, is this "heghtened" intensity of the R/F storm quadrant quantifiable? Is it, for example 10%, or 20% stronger in winds, rain?
Also, is this "heghtened" intensity of the R/F storm quadrant quantifiable? Is it, for example 10%, or 20% stronger in winds, rain?
The abbreviation "NO" mayor seems apt in this case.
The city will flood. The degree to which it floods is the question. That will be determines by a matter of miles and hours. Where and when it makes landfall seem to be the only mitigating factors. It doesn't appear to be showing signs of weakening, yet. Considering nearly everything built in the last century in Louisiana was "built by Bubba" and the levees and flood gates have never been tested to this magnitude . . . regardless, it won't be pretty.
Apparently his Katrina statement is at noon.
Probably tested for wind gusts, not sustained winds 150-200 mph for HOURS. WWL-TV weatherman was saying that along the center of the path, there'd be a strip about 30 miles wide that would have sustained 150-200mph winds for at least 3 hours...
I'm almost speechless.
Even if she weakens a bit, it's going to be unthinkable. I just pray it manages to miss the most heavily populated areas.
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