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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: mhking

Great info--thanks.


701 posted on 08/26/2005 8:10:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Ellesu
I just heard on WAFB that most hotels/motels were booked in Baton Rouge....mainly from New Orleans evacuees. Guess some people are taking it seriously.

I don't think a western hit (Lafayette) would be a good scenario for us either....
702 posted on 08/26/2005 8:11:51 PM PDT by LA Woman3
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To: nwctwx
If it still looks the same in 6-10 hours track wise, I hope they start evacuating the city

It'll never happen. Just look at the comments on this thread.

If Katrina hits NO as a Cat 3 or bigger, it will do so with all evacuation routes completely gridlocked.

The only thing New Orleans has going for it is the fact that long range forecasts are awful.

Sometimes.

703 posted on 08/26/2005 8:12:49 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: alancarp

Good to see you...the last canes you were no where to be found...I looked for you... ;o)


704 posted on 08/26/2005 8:14:38 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Dog Gone

Wondering when NO will start the contraflow.....


705 posted on 08/26/2005 8:15:40 PM PDT by LA Woman3
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To: jeeperz

Tallahassee is probably not in any danger this time. As a matter off fact, it's location is well insulated from a severe direct hurricane hit. It doesn't mean it might not someday encounter squalls, a tornado, etc. but they are too far from the coast and too protected by its surroundings to take the sort of brunt that the Florida or Gulf coasts sometimes face.


706 posted on 08/26/2005 8:16:17 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Visit Club Gitmo - The World's Only Air-Conditioned Gulag.)
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To: LA Woman3

If anybody fron New Orleans is evacuating, please try LA 30 when you hit Gonzales. It will save you a good 6 hours if Ivan last year was any indication. I commute to BR for work from there. I gave 30 a shot and nobody was using it. It took me 40 minutes to do what it was taking people on I-10 or airline highway 6 hours.


707 posted on 08/26/2005 8:17:18 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: All

This could not be any worse for oil prices.


708 posted on 08/26/2005 8:17:50 PM PDT by Owen
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To: NautiNurse

Nauti, do you know who has the Louisiana ping list? This might not be a bad time to send an APB. Katrina could change, of course, but since the delta area needs more evac time, this could be the right time to alert them.


709 posted on 08/26/2005 8:18:52 PM PDT by Tall_Texan (Visit Club Gitmo - The World's Only Air-Conditioned Gulag.)
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To: Dog Gone
Even the outliers are converging on a SE LA hit. The NAM has been everwhere, and now it's looking like it's converging on that region (though, it might show a Cuba strike next run).

84hrs

710 posted on 08/26/2005 8:19:01 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: alancarp

Who knows? There are a LOT of variables still left to play out. What's to say that the westward model shift doesn't continue, that certainly has happened previously with other storms. Could go in around east of Lake Charles, missing most of the population. Could take a sharper turn and come in east of Pensacola.

Heck, any more of a westward model shift and SE Texas enters the cone of possibility. Check out this wording from the advisory:

"Katrina continues to move stubbornly toward the west-southwest or 250 degrees at 7 knots along the eastern side of a very strong deep-layer mean high centered over Texas. In fact...data from the NOAA jet just relayed by the meteorologist onboard indicate that the high continues to be very strong. However...this feature is expected to move westward and leave a weakness over the central Gulf of Mexico. Katrina will likely take that opportunity and begin to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and then northward."

So if that high is delayed in moving west and the storm keeps travelling WSW for awhile, could it end up far enough west that when it does turn it heads into Beaumont, or even Houston? Not likely, but who knows at this point?


711 posted on 08/26/2005 8:19:02 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Diddle E. Squat

I'm going to Wal-Mart in a few minutes. It's 6 miles a way on a major N.O. Baton Rouge thoroughfare. It will be messy tomorrow.


712 posted on 08/26/2005 8:21:38 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: alancarp

Forgot to answer your actual question. Don't know about offshore, but there are petrochem complexes all up and down the Mississippi River in LA between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. More in Lake Charles and Beaumont.


713 posted on 08/26/2005 8:22:01 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Dog Gone
Every hurricane is dangerous as the people in South Florida have learned. This one certainly has a personality of her own. I hope I am wrong ,but after over 40 years of studying hurricanes,I have always believed that the last of Aug - first of Sept produces the worst storms Katrina is very dangerous.
714 posted on 08/26/2005 8:22:26 PM PDT by not-alone
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To: Tall_Texan

Honestly--I don't. The next thread will be in breaking news, LA will be in the topics too. You know, I haven't seen cajungirl around here the past couple of days. She may have the list.


715 posted on 08/26/2005 8:23:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dogbyte12

Great idea--see you in a while.


716 posted on 08/26/2005 8:24:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Diddle E. Squat
and begin to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and then northward."

They said that last night at this time.

717 posted on 08/26/2005 8:24:02 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

Please add me to your hurricane ping list!


718 posted on 08/26/2005 8:26:57 PM PDT by Prolifeconservative (If there is another terrorist attack, the womb is a very unsafe place to hide.)
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To: NautiNurse

Here's what Bob Breck, the New Orleans Fox Affiliate's weatherman, has to say as of 10:15 CST:

As Hurricane Katrina continues to grow stronger, I am becoming more concerned with landfall occurring much farther to the west of the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. That would place all of Southeast Louisiana under a threat for a major hurricane hit for early on Monday.

The key will be…" how soon will Katrina make the turn back to the north?" If the turn happens by midday on Saturday, then the NHC track looks good and we would see very little impact as the storm hits east of Biloxi. However, if the turn doesn't happen until Sunday, then landfall will be across Southeast Louisiana. Since this could be a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, damage would be catastrophic and much worst than the damage from Hurricane Betsy in 1965. FOX 8 will begin live hourly cut-ins on Saturday at 6 AM.

Bob Breck, Chief MeteorologistHurricane Supply List
B.S. Meteorology & Oceanography
University of Michigan


719 posted on 08/26/2005 8:27:32 PM PDT by alnick
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To: alnick

ominous


720 posted on 08/26/2005 8:30:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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