MD Senate 2006: Cardin 45% Steele 40% (Steele 47% Mfume 40%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 19, 2005

[RWR8189]

July 19, 2005--Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele by five percentage points in the race to become Maryland's next United States Senator.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Cardin attracts 45% of the vote to 40% for Steele. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for someone else and 11% are undecided.

Steele, however, leads former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume by seven points, 47% to 40%. The survey margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

It is unusual for a Republican to be so competitive in such a solidly "Blue" state such as Maryland. Election 2004 confirmed that geography rules in contests for the U.S. Senate.

Eight Senate seats changed from one party to the other. Six of the eight were Republican victories in Red States. One was a Democratic victory in the very Blue State of Illinois. The exception that proves the rule was Colorado where Attorney General Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Republican businessman Pete Coors. A Republican victory in Maryland would be even more of a surprise.

Racial divides are front and center in this match-up. With Mfume as the nominee, 66% of Maryland's African-American vote will go for the Democrat. However, Republians lead among whie voters 54% to 31%.

With Cardin atop the Democratic ticket, the white vote is evenly divided but Democrats attract just 51% of the African-American vote. In that mach-up, Steele attracts 30% of the African-American vote.

Steele is viewed favorably by 49% of Maryland voters and unfavorably by 27%. Cardin attracts favorable reviews from 35% while 21% take the opposite view. Significantly, a plurality (44%) have no opinion of Cardin at this time.

For Mfume, the numbers are 38% favorable and 35% unfavorable.

The election of 46 year old Steele could have lasting impact on the Senate. Only 9 of the 55 Republican Senators today represent Blue States. However, one-third (16 of 44) of all Democratic Senators are from Red States carried by George W. Bush.

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[cogitator]

Pretty good news for Steele at this point in the non-race (meaning Steele hasn't declared yet). Debates, especially if televised, will go strongly Steele's way. Cardin is touted as an "intellectual" Congressman -- meaning very few people skills and even less charisma. He's a REAL strong liberal, and not under the radar when his record is trotted out, so Steele could pick up moderates.

If Steele runs, I predict an election day squeaker with Steele winning and the liberal papers (WashPost, BaltSun) expressing surprise that the moderate black vote was so high for Steele, and pushed him over the top.

Remember the gay marriage lesson -- the religious black vote, even if otherwise liberal, dislikes gay marriage nearly as much as Midwestern Baptists. Cardin voted against the gay marriage ban amendment -- Steele can take this to the bank.

[jmaroneps37]

Mike will beat Cardin too. Money will pour in from Republicans Pro lifers, Catholics and even some Blacks. He is a great guy and has already proved he can get state wide votes in Maryland. If sarbanes stayed he would not have a chance, but this is an open seat. The comparison between Mike and "frizell empty foo me" will be so great for us that Mike will win by 4 to 6 points.

[RoseofTexas]

Can anyone here please post his picture to see if he is the one I'm thinking about after reading this article. Was Steele the very nice looking black gentleman who gave an outstanding speech at the RNC convention in 04?

[JLS]

We’re going to lose two seats in PA, so getting MD would be quite the get.
__________________________________________________________

What makes you think we are going to lose two PA seats? PA was closer in 2004 than Ohio and it along with Wisconsin probably really was a red state that was stolen.

[JohnnyZ]

Ayuh

[sgtbono2002]

Ehrlich didnt beat Townsend all that bad , considering that Townshend was a lousy candidate, She ran on the fact she was related to the Kennedy's and strutted around like her crap didnt stink, The good part is that Republicans are gaining in Maryland it isnt the same old sure thing for Dems it used to be. Steele would make a good Senator.

[Southack]

"Cardin voted against the gay marriage ban amendment -- Steele can take this to the bank." - cogitator

Especially with Mfume throwing a temper tantrum about losing the nomination to Cardin.

Not also that the NAACP's new Director, Gordon, has donated thousands of Dollars to President Bush's election campaigns...a tie-in that should help us give some guidance and suggestions at the right time and place.

The Dems are about to make a rather large mistake by dissing yet another prominent Black candidate when it becomes crunch time.

This time, however, Pubbies are positioned to take advantage of the Dems' inevitable gaffe.

Moreover, Pubbies are for school choice vouchers...something that inner-city parents heavily favor...and something that is/are devoutly opposed by all of the elected and/or campaigning Dems.

Gay Marriage
Dissing Mfume
School Choice Vouchers
Pro-GOP NAACP Director (finally!)
And Steele running on our ticket.

Not only can the GOP win this race (pun intended), but we can shift racial dynamics in our favor for the first time since before FDR.

Also note that J.C. Watts has announced that he is going to go to war on the campaign trail for us.

Life is good. The "Big Tent" gets bigger.

[Clintonfatigued]

Great news! The Man Of Steele Could Even Beat Ben Cardin!

[zbigreddogz]

It's gonna be a great race!

That said, all Maryland freepers should register as D's so they can vote for Mfume in the Primary. It would all but assure our victory.

[Republican Wildcat]

Right. Santorum is not only an incumbent, but he is part of the Senate leadership and is slated to be the next majority whip when McConnell moves up to the Majority leader spot. They won't let him be defeated without a huge fight.

[speekinout]

Yes, he was. I've seen him give several speeches. He's very charismatic. And he makes a lot more sense than the current Dem darling, Barak Obama.

I have no doubt that if he decides to run, the GOP will give him all the resources he needs.

His problem is that he didn't have a successful career before he got into politics, and I'm not sure his wife (who is drop-dead gorgeous, BTW) really wants a political life.

[rdb3]

Not only can the GOP win this race (pun intended), but we can shift racial dynamics in our favor for the first time since before FDR.

Yes, but they must execute. Let's see what happens.

[Southack]

Honestly, it may not happen on the first series of downs (i.e. this election).

But it could.

The interesting thing here is that this marks a moment when the GOP is actually *in position*. Ordinarily, we aren't even on the field when the Dems fumble.

Between Mfume and Cardin and other minefields, the Dems *will* fumble in this election.

And we're finally positioned to capitalize on that turnover.

Steele. Gay Marriage. School vouchers. Gordon. That puts us in position.

Now the Dems just have to fumble, which history tells us they will. When it comes to the "crunch time," Dems eat at the Whites Only lunch counter. McAuliffe and Dean at the DNC instead of Maynard Jackson (R.I.P.). Pelosi as Minority Leader instead of Ford. Edwards as VIP candidate instead of Sharpton or Jackson.

And they'll dis Mfume in favor of Cardin (i.e. the fumble).

In contrast, the GOP is grooming no fewer than 6 top-tier Blacks from Maryland, Ohio, Oklahoma, Florida, and the White House itself (e.g. Rice, Powell) for a VIP run.

The odds are that the Dems are going to be running "Whites only" Presidential tickets for years to come...not so for the GOP.

This fact, however, may not be enough in our favor in the '06 Maryland Senate race...but we're finally in the game at least, and sooner or later we'll get our offense running.

[atlanta67]

""Racial divides are front and center in this match-up. With Mfume as the nominee, 66% of Maryland's African-American vote will go for the Democrat. However, Republians lead among whie voters 54% to 31%.""


Actually the real story here is that Mfume has ONLY 66% of the black vote. DEMS cant win if all they can do is 66% of the black vote.



Also why lose 2 seats in PA? Is Spectator retiring early?

[atlanta67]

you might be right here.

DEMS face a big problem in MD. its catch 22.

IF the party backs Cardin, they risk alienating the black vote, especially over such a well known black man as Mfume. Blacks may not turn out in as large numbers and Cardin loses.

If they back Mfume, they lose to Steele anyway as Steel should get 30% of the Black vote easily.


Thus this poll is greatly overstating Cardins support. See what his support is after a bitter primary battle with Mfume.

Steele should be the favourite.

[moose2004]

I totally agree with you.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Mfume 40, Steele 47 overall
Mfume 66, Steele ?? blacks
Mfume 31, Steele 54 whites

Cardin 45, Steele 40 overall
Cardin 51, Steele 30 blacks
Cardin, Steele even among whites

Anyone know the complete numbers?"

---

Looking at the results for Mfume, and assuming that all MD voters are either white or black (which is not exactly true, but close enough), it appears that the sample was 75% white and 25% black (which is almost exactly the racial breakdown of MD's voting-age population). Based on that assumption, Steele would receive 26% of the black vote against Mfume! Only 8% of blacks would vote for another candidate or are undecided in a Steele-Mfume race, but 19% of blacks would vote for another candidate or are undecided in a Steele-Cardin race, giving Steele's 30% of the black vote against Cardin the possibility of growing substantially.

As for the white vote in a Steele-Cardin race, the candidates would be tied at 43% with 16% voting for another candidate or currently undecided.

These are GREAT results for Michael Steele this early in the race. According to the poll, black voters appear to be quite willing to consider voting for him, and if Cardin wins the nomination (as appears likely, since there doesn't appear to be another white Democrat in the primary willing to run and perhaps split the white vote with Cardin), the percentage of the black vote going to Steele would be between 30%-49%. As more and more black voters become aware that the Democrats have a glass ceiling for black candidates, as the Cardin-Mfume primary will demonstrate, Steele could get over 40% of the black vote if this poll is anywhere close to the mark.

[ElTianti]

Also why lose 2 seats in PA? Is Spectator retiring early?

Spector has cancer and Santorum is polling below %50, which is death for an incumbent.

On the up side if Senator Grand Cyclops retires, WV stands a good chance of voting red.

[Abby4116]

Can you tell me how to change my registration for the primary in MD? I think I originally registered via MVA but don't know how to go about changing it. Thanks.

[neutrality]

Hahah, good one