Posted on 07/19/2005 12:43:33 PM PDT by RWR8189
July 19, 2005--Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele by five percentage points in the race to become Maryland's next United States Senator.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Cardin attracts 45% of the vote to 40% for Steele. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for someone else and 11% are undecided.
Steele, however, leads former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume by seven points, 47% to 40%. The survey margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
It is unusual for a Republican to be so competitive in such a solidly "Blue" state such as Maryland. Election 2004 confirmed that geography rules in contests for the U.S. Senate.
Eight Senate seats changed from one party to the other. Six of the eight were Republican victories in Red States. One was a Democratic victory in the very Blue State of Illinois. The exception that proves the rule was Colorado where Attorney General Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Republican businessman Pete Coors. A Republican victory in Maryland would be even more of a surprise.
Racial divides are front and center in this match-up. With Mfume as the nominee, 66% of Maryland's African-American vote will go for the Democrat. However, Republians lead among whie voters 54% to 31%.
With Cardin atop the Democratic ticket, the white vote is evenly divided but Democrats attract just 51% of the African-American vote. In that mach-up, Steele attracts 30% of the African-American vote.
Steele is viewed favorably by 49% of Maryland voters and unfavorably by 27%. Cardin attracts favorable reviews from 35% while 21% take the opposite view. Significantly, a plurality (44%) have no opinion of Cardin at this time.
For Mfume, the numbers are 38% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
The election of 46 year old Steele could have lasting impact on the Senate. Only 9 of the 55 Republican Senators today represent Blue States. However, one-third (16 of 44) of all Democratic Senators are from Red States carried by George W. Bush.
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Our publications provide real-time information on consumer confidence, investor confidence, employment data, the political situation, and other topics of value and interest.
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Go Steele!
We’re going to lose two seats in PA, so getting MD would be quite the get.
So Steele would get some 30% of the black vote against Queasy? Works for me!!
Based on this I hope Queasy gets the nomination.
Great! People have been paying attention, aye?
Go Steele go!
Crush them, like the inferior glass assed specimens they are!
Nothing can withstand Steele! Nothing!
*goes back to quietly waving a flag*
Cardin is declared, so is Mfume. Steele has not. Pretty good numbers for an undeclared.
I'd say Gov Ehrlich was more than competitive against Kathie Kennedy Townsend. Now we've gone from a $2 billion state deficit to a $1 billion state surplus.
Don't think of Maryland as a blue state- think of it as a red state held in thrall to 2 populous blue counties and the city of Bawlmer.
I think Santorum will pull it out. Also, are you suggesting Spector's health will force him to resign? I disagree with Spector on many issues, but I do hope he recovers and can serve out his term which ends in 2010.
No, Raz didn't give the # for what % of black Steele got matched with Mfume. The writeup was a good way of only giving out half the information.
Mfume 40, Steele 47 overall
Mfume 66, Steele ?? blacks
Mfume 31, Steele 54 whites
Cardin 45, Steele 40 overall
Cardin 51, Steele 30 blacks
Cardin, Steele even among whites
Anyone know the complete numbers?
I don't think Santorum will win, IIRC, he polling below %50, which is death for an incumbent. As for Spector, I thought he was in pretty bad shape.
Santorum is a tough campaigner, and he will be enthusiastically supported by Christians and Catholics alike. Plus, all of the focus to date has been on Rick, and most of it has been negative. Once he and the RNC go after Casey the numbers should even out quickly. As for Spector, he is one tough and ambitious SOB, he has his dream job of being the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and if anyone can rally he can, and I pray he does.
Prediction:
The Democracts will use this as an excuse to fall behind Cardin. Cardin will do well enough among whites and "other races" to win the election, but prominent black community leaders could take offense at Mfume being squeezed out.
Can Steele eat into the black vote? It's up to the black community leaders: do they want a good black governor, or a lousy Democratic one. My guess is most will say they want a Democratic one, but if a significant number like Steele, it could change things.
Senator
Yes, thanks... I was also writing about the Governor's race in Virginia, and it came out wrong.
... and New Jersey.
All the more reason for Maryland Republicans to change parties for the primary. If Steele isn't going to have any challenge, it would pay to meddle in the democrat race, runup the costs, encourage division, and vote for Frizzel Gray.
maybe you're on drugs. anything good?
Flag
Mfume? Good luck Maryland! Thank God I live in Virginia!
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