Chinese dragon awakens

WT ^ | 6/26/05 | Bill Gertz

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.

U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.

"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems."

China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization.

The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.

"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military was able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," a senior defense official said.....

[Caipirabob]

Expect an attack following the next Presidential election if this report is correct.

Fear a Hillary presidency...

[redgolum]

Remember they said the same thing about Japan in WWII. "They would never attack us, we trade to much with them".

They are a fascist society, which means government control of the economy. Many in China would rather take the economic hit and then rebound then stay shackled to us.

[redgolum]

About the Flanker.

The Indian Air force beat a good number of our guys in a training exercise a while back with the Flanker.

We are flying 30 year old planes with 20 year old avionics in some cases. These are brand new. Don't underestimate them.

[cpdiii]

A confrontation with China in the Straits of Formosa bodes ill for China, Taiwan, and the United States. If they attack Taiwan we will defend it with our Naval Forces. The attack would start off conventional. There is a high probability that the Chinese would sink a US aircraft carrier. Those vessels have over 5000 US sailors. At that point this is war and would quickly escalate to tactical nukes which means good bye Chinese Navy, and our Navy in the Western Pacific At this point the Chinese military and political structure will face a major decision. Do they escalate this to a Nuclear exchange with the United States. If they do we will lose major cities in the United States. Millions of our people will be killed. The United States would then unleash some of its sea based missiles from its Trident Subs. They would take out all the major political power structures and the major cities of China. The Chinese goal is domination of the Far East. They do not want to be destroyed.

Each side must be very careful. They will not attack Taiwan if they think we will defend it. The quickest way to war with the Chinese is to let them think we are not firm in our resolve to defend Taiwan. This would not happen under a George Bush. A President Hillary Clinton or someone like her is what they are waiting for!

[Dallas59]

This is preferable to living under communism.

[Dat Mon]

You havent mentioned diesel submarines...and state of the art torpedoes that they are outfitted with.

The goose stepping is so 20th century mon. This is the 21st century. People think in that mode even if they don't do it.

There is always a hierarchy of control in a totalitarian society....some of which may not be obvious to a casual observer.

[Savage Beast]

Your observations make sense to me too, V.

The awakening Chinese Dragon is angry over the colonial exploitation and degradation of China, though they certainly resulted as much from Chinese decadence (are you paying attention, Europe and Leftist America?) as from Western expansion. I think the Chinese interest in creating a colonial pied a terre in Long Beach was motivated by the urge for revenge as much as anything else.

However, such obvious constrasts as Hong Kong vs. mainland China and North vs. South Korea have not been lost on the Chinese leadership, and they have shown a remarkable pragmatism, which is both refreshing and alarming.

I think the U.S. and China will be competitors for a long time, but, if both nations remain stable, pragmatism could keep the competition peaceful, and perhaps cooperative.

India, whose economy is growing, whose population will surpass China's within the near future, and which is China's neighbor and thus competitor for resources, probably poses a greater threat to China.

And Russia, with a decreasing population and vast natural resources just across the Chinese border, is probably threatened most by the awakening Dragon.

[Savage Beast]

Pretty good.

[Dat Mon]

You're right...I haven't mentioned the strategic naval / military perspective of holding Taiwan...particularly in how it allows China to project naval and military power throughout Asia.

Japan would not be happy.

[shuckmaster]

China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses.

Who's going to worry about a little thing like this when steel exports are up?

growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.

My elementary school teachers were telling me this in 50's, Are defense officials just now figuring it out?

Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States,

Forced my butt! China has been planning this war for decades the only thing relatively recent is that they've figured how amazingly eager Americans are to fianance the coming war by buying Chinese trinkets cheap.

[spycatcher]

I agree. Phase 1 was the great miltech leap under Bill Clinton. Phase 2 is consolidating power under Bush through economic superiority. Phase 3 comes the attack when Hillary is elected and signals that Taiwan is on their own and she has no heart to ever use nukes.

N.Korea probably moves to grab S. Korea at the same time that China makes their big move. The high tech industrial riches of Taiwan and S. Korea are just too much for the reds to resist.

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

How many people are aware that France, Russia, Germany, and China were helping Saddam's military? How often do people think about the Warthogs that were being used to shoot us down? Germans passed on stinger information. Bubba provided NK nuclear power with the understanding that it would not be misused, a commie country? In part, NK tells Bubba that China is "helping" them!. What kind of ultimate superpower capabilities should China be permitted?.... Hell yes too few people realize these things and they must be repeated and repeated and repeated........

[Dallas59]

Chinese Military Pics

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[Dallas59]

Military Pics

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[Kuehn12]

I want to bring up a subject that pentagon boys did, current article from Bill Gertz. They were curious as to why china was building a capability that goes beyond, "the baseline needed for a Taiwan scenario." Well come on, Chinese war planners know very well that in any war scenario with Taiwan will involve the US. They would need a military capability far beyond anything needed to defeat the Taiwanese, which pushes any possible war well into the future. Not the 2007-2008 time frame they propose.

[edwin hubble]

This is the first clear thought I've seen describing an accurate model of the modern China: (from the article)

"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism,.."

[Logical me]

If China thinks starting a war will solve anything, then they better be prepared to rebuild China with what is left. The only problem is every nation on the earth will be faced with the same rebuilding if there is anything left. Future war with superpowers is a absolute suicide. But then suicide is a way of life with the far east and asia.

[Altair333]

"Let em have it. It is as much theirs as Hong Kong, maybe even more."

I agree. Our formal position is that Taiwan is a part of Taiwan. That being the case, how could we possibly justify a war over Taiwan, with our hands full with the war on terror?

Besides, we defended South Korea and look what it got us- the South Koreans hate our guts.

[Dat Mon]

You said..."This is the first clear thought I've seen describing an accurate model of the modern China: (from the article)"

In using the word "fascist"...Bill is picking up on what we have been saying on China threads for a long time.

Some people use fascist...I coined the term neo-feudal society...which I believe China is evolving towards.

I believe that Kings were very military and empire focused back in the days of the original feudal societies.

Hell...we may be on our way there too...seeing as to how the SCOTUS applied the principle of Eminent Domain.

[gumboyaya]

A naval power with our fleet capabilities, yea right, they will be rusting on the bottom in two weeks. The Japanese were in much better position in 41 than China is now.