[cpdiii]

A confrontation with China in the Straits of Formosa bodes ill for China, Taiwan, and the United States. If they attack Taiwan we will defend it with our Naval Forces. The attack would start off conventional. There is a high probability that the Chinese would sink a US aircraft carrier. Those vessels have over 5000 US sailors. At that point this is war and would quickly escalate to tactical nukes which means good bye Chinese Navy, and our Navy in the Western Pacific At this point the Chinese military and political structure will face a major decision. Do they escalate this to a Nuclear exchange with the United States. If they do we will lose major cities in the United States. Millions of our people will be killed. The United States would then unleash some of its sea based missiles from its Trident Subs. They would take out all the major political power structures and the major cities of China. The Chinese goal is domination of the Far East. They do not want to be destroyed.

Each side must be very careful. They will not attack Taiwan if they think we will defend it. The quickest way to war with the Chinese is to let them think we are not firm in our resolve to defend Taiwan. This would not happen under a George Bush. A President Hillary Clinton or someone like her is what they are waiting for!

[spycatcher]

I agree. Phase 1 was the great miltech leap under Bill Clinton. Phase 2 is consolidating power under Bush through economic superiority. Phase 3 comes the attack when Hillary is elected and signals that Taiwan is on their own and she has no heart to ever use nukes.

N.Korea probably moves to grab S. Korea at the same time that China makes their big move. The high tech industrial riches of Taiwan and S. Korea are just too much for the reds to resist.