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McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)
Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

Posted on 06/23/2005 9:00:06 AM PDT by areafiftyone

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

 

Positive

Excellent

Good

Negative

Fair

Poor

6-22-05

44

15

29

56

22

34

5-25-05

46

18

28

53

23

30

4-18-05

46

19

27

53

23

30

2-25-05

47

21

26

53

22

31

2-14-05

50

24

26

50

18

32

1-21-05

49

21

28

51

22

29

11-16-04

51

23

28

49

18

31

9-20-04

47

18

29

52

20

32

6-05-04

46

19

27

55

22

33

1-20-04

49

19

30

50

27

23

9-25-03

50

22

28

50

23

27

6-10-03

58

27

31

41

22

19

9-25-02

64

26

38

36

21

15

6-14-02

70

33

37

30

20

10

1-7-02

80

45

35

19

15

4


6-22-05

Overall

Red states

Blue states

Excellent

15

17

14

Good

29

31

25

Positive

44

48

39

Fair

22

22

21

Poor

34

29

41

Negative

56

51

62

Not sure

0

1

0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush

45

Vote Again for Kerry

43

Vote Again for Third Party

3

Switch to Kerry Vote

2

Switch to Bush Vote

0

Switch to Third Party Vote

2

Would Not Vote

2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s
Handling of Issue

Positive

Excellent

Good

Negative

Fair

Poor

Not
sure

War on Terrorism

49

20

29

50

24

26

1

War in Iraq

39

13

26

61

15

46

0

Taxes

36

13

23

62

28

34

2

Foreign Policy

36

10

26

61

26

35

3

Jobs and the economy

35

9

26

65

28

37

1

Education

33

7

26

64

34

30

3

Environment

30

6

24

66

29

37

5

Social Security and Medicare

27

7

20

69

23

46

4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05

Overall

Red states

Blue states

Right Track

43

48

35

Wrong Direction

53

48

60

Not sure

5

4

5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05

Overall

Red
states

Blue
states

Excellent

2

2

2

Good

24

28

19

Positive

26

30

20

Fair

47

47

47

Poor

24

22

26

Negative

71

69

73

Not sure

4

2

6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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To: hellinahandcart; All

I agree with you in that, whatever you or I think of them, NEITHER can win the Republican nomination. And they would probably split the party if somehow they did.

I think it's good we are concerned about 2008 and plan ahead. It will be a tough race.

But I hope I and others here are not getting too pessimistic.

These two have name recognition. There's time for others to gain it.


61 posted on 06/23/2005 9:18:25 AM PDT by cvq3842
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To: areafiftyone
Running as a Democrap, of course.

I don't personally know of any conservative that would vote for him.........
62 posted on 06/23/2005 9:18:43 AM PDT by rockrr (Gregorovych Nyet!)
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To: areafiftyone
Evidently Zogby is campaigning for McKeating.
63 posted on 06/23/2005 9:18:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Drug prohibition laws spawned the runaway federal health care monopoly and fund terrorism.)
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To: Mr. K

"The dems will turn out because they love HilLIARy, and the repubs will stay home because McCain is an a$$hole"

Absolutely not true--I live in the South and my Dem buddies roll their eyes at the mere mention of Hillary--But mention McCain, and they say-"Ive always liked him..." Dems will flock to McCain if he runs against Hill, and you heard THAT here first...(unless somebody else said it already:)


64 posted on 06/23/2005 9:19:05 AM PDT by ktvaughn
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To: areafiftyone

Zogby needs to follow this up with another question: In a race between Hillary Clinton and John McCain, whom do you think would be the first to implode?


65 posted on 06/23/2005 9:19:33 AM PDT by My2Cents
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To: areafiftyone
McCain will be hammered in the Primaries by conservatives, so a match-up between the Hildabeast and McCain remains far from certain.
66 posted on 06/23/2005 9:19:48 AM PDT by conservativecorner
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To: rhombus

"Hold your nose and vote, friends." No way, but I won't complain.


67 posted on 06/23/2005 9:20:13 AM PDT by TBall
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To: Protagoras

Are you saying I should vote for the frog party?


68 posted on 06/23/2005 9:20:27 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Senator Byrd: Did the Union troops withdraw because of your Klan insurgency?)
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To: Always Right

Let's be honest here....The last poll among Republicans that I saw had Rudy Guiliani and McCain right at the top of Republicans' preferences.


69 posted on 06/23/2005 9:21:11 AM PDT by My2Cents
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To: areafiftyone

Neither of the choices offered would be of any positive benefit to the United States.

Draft Dr. Condoleezza Rice.


70 posted on 06/23/2005 9:22:39 AM PDT by alloysteel ("Master of the painfully obvious.....")
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To: Corin Stormhands
Are you saying I should vote for the frog party?

You should vote for anyone you want, or no one at all. Depending on what you want for this moribund country while it's on it's way into history.

71 posted on 06/23/2005 9:23:16 AM PDT by Protagoras (Now that the frog is fully cooked, how would you like it served?)
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To: areafiftyone

Notice that Zogby is claiming that Bush has LOST ground since the election, and yet his poll shows him beating Kerry, whereas his polls before the election showed KERRY CLEARLY WINNING. This is an outright lie, I don't know what this guys agenda is anymore.
As for McCain, don't fool yourself for a second into thinking that he would actually have a 20 point lead come 2008. Polls this far ahead favor less known and less controversial candidates, but I guarantee you by 2008 the Democratic faithful would rally around Hillary and McCain would have a major turnout problem.


72 posted on 06/23/2005 9:24:03 AM PDT by Betaille ("Within the covers of the Bible are all the answers for all the problems men face." -Ronald Reagan)
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To: TNCMAXQ
"So McCain leads even in states won by Kerry? Sounds as if McCain would win 50 states if an election were held today. I find that very hard to believe." I don't find it hard to believe at all. Most of my liberal friends love McCain and would probably vote for him over Hillary. Most of my conservative friends hate McCain and would rather not vote at all. Hillary or McCain, either way it is fixed for the liberals.
73 posted on 06/23/2005 9:24:28 AM PDT by TBall
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To: areafiftyone
The most corrupt Republican would beat the most corrupt democrat. Whoop-de-freeking-do.


74 posted on 06/23/2005 9:24:34 AM PDT by FormerACLUmember (Honoring Saint Jude's assistance every day.)
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To: areafiftyone
The most corrupt Republican would beat the most corrupt democrat. Whoop-de-freeking-do.


75 posted on 06/23/2005 9:24:35 AM PDT by FormerACLUmember (Honoring Saint Jude's assistance every day.)
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To: areafiftyone
Any quality Republican will thrash HilaryCare! Her popularity and political power is a Stone Age Press mirage. DeLay/Rice '08

Pray for W and Our Iraq Winning Troops

76 posted on 06/23/2005 9:25:48 AM PDT by bray (Pray for Iraq's Freedom from Mohammad)
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To: TBall

"Most of my liberal friends love McCain and would probably vote for him over Hillary."

Absolutely not. Liberals are coddling McCain now because he is the most effective opposition to conservatives. If they got a race between Hillary and McCain, they would ALL come back to the plantation and vote for Hillary. I bounced this off a Democrat friend of mine and she essentially felt the same way. She said she wouldn't vote for McCain because she still ultimately thinks he's conservative since he's pro-life (I don't know if that's true).


77 posted on 06/23/2005 9:27:17 AM PDT by Betaille ("Within the covers of the Bible are all the answers for all the problems men face." -Ronald Reagan)
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To: areafiftyone

Either way you get a lib in office!


78 posted on 06/23/2005 9:28:18 AM PDT by Jersey Republican Biker Chick (People too weak to follow their own dreams, will always find a way to discourage yours.)
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To: TommyDale

In Alabama...McCain is considered a joke. He can't carry even 30 percent of the Republicans in the state. I think this ought to be the message to the Republicans...if you want to win...you better clear up your message throughout the south and sell us on your words. McCain has failed. Ms. Rice would get an awful good reception with southern voters. I think she ought to be the number one.


79 posted on 06/23/2005 9:31:28 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: My2Cents
Let's be honest here....The last poll among Republicans that I saw had Rudy Guiliani and McCain right at the top of Republicans' preferences.

They fair well in national polling for the general election as well, primarily based on name recognition. With Cheney out (for good reason), who else is there on the Republican bench who isn't a whozat outside of their region (e.g., George Allen)? Condi? That's a non-starter (no experience in elective politics).

80 posted on 06/23/2005 9:31:29 AM PDT by chimera
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