McCain Would Trounce Hillary in ’08 Match-up (New Zogby Poll)

Zogby ^ | 6/23/05

[areafiftyone]

Arizona Senator John McCain would overwhelmingly defeat New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a theoretical 2008 presidential match-up, a new Zogby America poll reveals.

The survey also shows that in a re-match of the 2004 election, Americans would now vote in equal numbers for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush, while President Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to 44%—the lowest numbers of his presidency.  The poll also found fewer than two-in-five (39%) voters approve of President Bush’s handling of the Iraq war.

The Zogby America survey of 1000 likely voters, conducted from June 20 through 22, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points. 

The same survey finds Congress’ job rating even lower, with just one-in-four likely voters (26%) rating the legislature favorably—and just 2% saying it is doing an excellent job.

The survey finds that both senators far outdistance their nearest competition for their parties’ nominations—but in a head-to-head match-up, the Arizona Republican bests the New York Democrat by 19 points, leading her 54% to 35%.  McCain would also defeat Massachusetts Senator—and former Democratic presidential candidate—John Kerry by a full 20 points, 55% to 35%.

McCain has majority support in every single geographic region of the country.  But more telling may be the fact that, even in the states carried by Kerry in 2004, McCain comes out comfortably on top—leading Clinton by 49 to 38% and Kerry by 50% to 40%.  Among the states carried by President Bush, the margin is even wider, giving McCain a 58% to 33% lead over Clinton and 59% to 32% lead over Kerry.

McCain leads with most demographics, though Clinton would best him narrowly among Hispanic voters (45% to 38%) and would win African Americans by 80% to 19%.  But that 19% would be the highest vote tally for a Republican with African Americans in decades. McCain leads Clinton with every age group except voters under 30, where the two are in a dead heat.

President Bush’s Job Approval Plunges to Historic Lows

The drop in President Bush’s approval rating puts him at the lowest numbers since his presidency began.  The Zogby America survey has been conducted on a regular basis throughout Bush’s two terms.

	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor
6-22-05	44	15	29	56	22	34
5-25-05	46	18	28	53	23	30
4-18-05	46	19	27	53	23	30
2-25-05	47	21	26	53	22	31
2-14-05	50	24	26	50	18	32
1-21-05	49	21	28	51	22	29
11-16-04	51	23	28	49	18	31
9-20-04	47	18	29	52	20	32
6-05-04	46	19	27	55	22	33
1-20-04	49	19	30	50	27	23
9-25-03	50	22	28	50	23	27
6-10-03	58	27	31	41	22	19
9-25-02	64	26	38	36	21	15
6-14-02	70	33	37	30	20	10
1-7-02	80	45	35	19	15	4

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	15	17	14
Good	29	31	25
Positive	44	48	39
Fair	22	22	21
Poor	34	29	41
Negative	56	51	62
Not sure	0	1	0

Zogby International also continues to track the President’s performance in both the “Red States” which he carried in the 2004 election and the “Blue States” carried by Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat Bush defeated last fall.  Just one month ago, Bush’s job performance was supported by a 51% majority in the Red States, but now has slumped to 48%.  And in the Blue States, the President has dropped one point from 40% in May to 39% in the latest poll.

Kerry, Bush Would Now Tie in Election

Vote Again for Bush	45
Vote Again for Kerry	43
Vote Again for Third Party	3
Switch to Kerry Vote	2
Switch to Bush Vote	0
Switch to Third Party Vote	2
Would Not Vote	2

The most significant development in the poll may be that Americans now say they would vote for Senator Kerry and President Bush in equal numbers if last November’s election were re-held.  The new poll finds 45% say they would vote for Bush and 45% say they would now vote for his vanquished 2004 opponent.  Although before rounding Bush holds a very slight lead, the two are, for the first time since the November election, back into a statistical dead heat.

The drop in Bush’s support comes against a backdrop of lost momentum in the Senate, where much of the President’s agenda—including the nomination of U.N. Ambassador-designate John Bolton—is stalled. 

President’s Job Approval in Negative Territory on Host of Issues

President’s Handling of Issue	Positive	Excellent	Good	Negative	Fair	Poor	Not sure
War on Terrorism	49	20	29	50	24	26	1
War in Iraq	39	13	26	61	15	46	0
Taxes	36	13	23	62	28	34	2
Foreign Policy	36	10	26	61	26	35	3
Jobs and the economy	35	9	26	65	28	37	1
Education	33	7	26	64	34	30	3
Environment	30	6	24	66	29	37	5
Social Security and Medicare	27	7	20	69	23	46	4

President Bush has slipped into negative territory on his handling of a number of issues surrounding his presidency.  While the nation is split on his handling of the War on Terrorism, the president’s support has dropped into negative territory on a number of other issues, from his anemic numbers on the Iraq War to his dismal ratings on Social Security and Medicare—an area he began his second term vowing to reform.

Majority Now Says Nation on Wrong Track

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Right Track	43	48	35
Wrong Direction	53	48	60
Not sure	5	4	5

The number of Americans who now say the nation is on the wrong track continues to climb as well, with 53% now saying the nation is heading in the wrong direction.  Just one month ago, that number was at 50%.  Much of this increase comes from a shift among Americans who, in May, were undecided about the nation’s direction now saying the nation is on the wrong track.  While both Red Staters and Blue Staters are both more pessimistic than a month ago, the belief the country is heading in the wrong direction is particularly strong in the Blue States, where just one-in-three (35%) say the nation is on the right track.

Congress Rates Very Unfavorably

6-22-05	Overall	Red states	Blue states
Excellent	2	2	2
Good	24	28	19
Positive	26	30	20
Fair	47	47	47
Poor	24	22	26
Negative	71	69	73
Not sure	4	2	6

The poll finds Congress rated even less favorably than the President, with just one-in-four Americans holding a favorable impression of the co-equal branch of government’s job performance.  Seven-in-ten American voters, meanwhile, view Congress in negative terms, with half of all likely voters (47%) terming Congress’ job performance “fair.”  The disapproval of Congress crosses the Red-Blue divide, with voters in both areas holding a negative view of the legislature—though Red Staters are slightly more favorable to the Republican-controlled body. 

In a sign of voter dissatisfaction with Congress, a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which party’s candidate they would select for Congress finds the minority Democrats polling at 38% while the majority Republicans take 33%.  A full one-in-five (20%) say they are not sure or will not vote in the mid-term Congressional elections next fall.      

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1000 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from June 20 to 22, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[cvq3842]

I agree with you in that, whatever you or I think of them, NEITHER can win the Republican nomination. And they would probably split the party if somehow they did.

I think it's good we are concerned about 2008 and plan ahead. It will be a tough race.

But I hope I and others here are not getting too pessimistic.

These two have name recognition. There's time for others to gain it.

[rockrr]

Running as a Democrap, of course.

I don't personally know of any conservative that would vote for him.........

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Evidently Zogby is campaigning for McKeating.

[ktvaughn]

"The dems will turn out because they love HilLIARy, and the repubs will stay home because McCain is an a$$hole"

Absolutely not true--I live in the South and my Dem buddies roll their eyes at the mere mention of Hillary--But mention McCain, and they say-"Ive always liked him..." Dems will flock to McCain if he runs against Hill, and you heard THAT here first...(unless somebody else said it already:)

[My2Cents]

Zogby needs to follow this up with another question: In a race between Hillary Clinton and John McCain, whom do you think would be the first to implode?

[conservativecorner]

McCain will be hammered in the Primaries by conservatives, so a match-up between the Hildabeast and McCain remains far from certain.

[TBall]

"Hold your nose and vote, friends." No way, but I won't complain.

[Corin Stormhands]

Are you saying I should vote for the frog party?

[My2Cents]

Let's be honest here....The last poll among Republicans that I saw had Rudy Guiliani and McCain right at the top of Republicans' preferences.

[alloysteel]

Neither of the choices offered would be of any positive benefit to the United States.

Draft Dr. Condoleezza Rice.

[Protagoras]

Are you saying I should vote for the frog party?

You should vote for anyone you want, or no one at all. Depending on what you want for this moribund country while it's on it's way into history.

[Betaille]

Notice that Zogby is claiming that Bush has LOST ground since the election, and yet his poll shows him beating Kerry, whereas his polls before the election showed KERRY CLEARLY WINNING. This is an outright lie, I don't know what this guys agenda is anymore.
As for McCain, don't fool yourself for a second into thinking that he would actually have a 20 point lead come 2008. Polls this far ahead favor less known and less controversial candidates, but I guarantee you by 2008 the Democratic faithful would rally around Hillary and McCain would have a major turnout problem.

[TBall]

"So McCain leads even in states won by Kerry? Sounds as if McCain would win 50 states if an election were held today. I find that very hard to believe." I don't find it hard to believe at all. Most of my liberal friends love McCain and would probably vote for him over Hillary. Most of my conservative friends hate McCain and would rather not vote at all. Hillary or McCain, either way it is fixed for the liberals.

[FormerACLUmember]

The most corrupt Republican would beat the most corrupt democrat. Whoop-de-freeking-do.

[FormerACLUmember]

The most corrupt Republican would beat the most corrupt democrat. Whoop-de-freeking-do.

[bray]

Any quality Republican will thrash HilaryCare! Her popularity and political power is a Stone Age Press mirage. DeLay/Rice '08

Pray for W and Our Iraq Winning Troops

[Betaille]

"Most of my liberal friends love McCain and would probably vote for him over Hillary."

Absolutely not. Liberals are coddling McCain now because he is the most effective opposition to conservatives. If they got a race between Hillary and McCain, they would ALL come back to the plantation and vote for Hillary. I bounced this off a Democrat friend of mine and she essentially felt the same way. She said she wouldn't vote for McCain because she still ultimately thinks he's conservative since he's pro-life (I don't know if that's true).

[Jersey Republican Biker Chick]

Either way you get a lib in office!

[pepsionice]

In Alabama...McCain is considered a joke. He can't carry even 30 percent of the Republicans in the state. I think this ought to be the message to the Republicans...if you want to win...you better clear up your message throughout the south and sell us on your words. McCain has failed. Ms. Rice would get an awful good reception with southern voters. I think she ought to be the number one.

[chimera]

Let's be honest here....The last poll among Republicans that I saw had Rudy Guiliani and McCain right at the top of Republicans' preferences.

They fair well in national polling for the general election as well, primarily based on name recognition. With Cheney out (for good reason), who else is there on the Republican bench who isn't a whozat outside of their region (e.g., George Allen)? Condi? That's a non-starter (no experience in elective politics).