Are Democrats Creeping Into Contention? (2006 Senate Outlooks)

National Journal ^ | June 22, 2005 | Chuck Todd

[sierrahome]

That's some excellent reading...thanks for the post!

[nj26]

If things look so bad for the GOP, then how come 3 of 5 seats most likely to turn over are currently held by Democrats?

[Popman]

James Jeffords (I) is retiring

Jumping Jim is giving up his shingle

Good riddance

[Popman]

I'm surprised they left off Torricelli from N.J. making a run for the seat.

Jersey politics are so corrupt he will probably win even if he was in jail.

If a dead guy, Lautenberg can win, the Torch can pull it off.

[BillyBoy]

Best candidates to run in these states:

PENNSYLVANIA
Rick Santorum for U.S. Senate

RHODE ISLAND
Stephen Laffey for U.S. Senate

MINNESOTA
Mark Kennedy for U.S. Senate

MARYLAND
Michael Steele for U.S. Senate

NORTH DAKOTA
John Hoeven for U.S. Senate

MONTANA
Conrad Burns for U.S. Senate

FLORIDA
Connie Mack IV for U.S. Senate

TENNESSEE
Ed Bryant for U.S. Senate

NEW JERSEY
Tom Kean Jr. for U.S. Senate

NEBRASKA
Don Stenberg for U.S. Senate

WEST VIRGINIA
Shelley Moore Capito for U.S. Senate

ARIZONA
Jon Kyl for U.S. Senate

MISSOURI
Jim Talent for U.S. Senate

MICHIGAN
Rev. Keith Butler for U.S. Senate OR
Jane Abraham for U.S. Senate

WASHINGTON STATE
Jennifer Dunn for U.S. Senate

VERMONT
Brian Dubie for U.S. Senate

OHIO
John Kasish for U.S. Senate

INDIANA
Richard Lugar for U.S. Senate

NEW MEXICO
John Sanchez for U.S. Senate

MAINE
Brian Duprey for U.S. Senate

VIRGINIA
George Allen for U.S. Senate

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

The Democrats should be in contention if for no other reason that it's the second midterm election and the party out of power is supposed to make major gains. The fact that it looks so iffy for them at the moment is not a good sign. Even the Casey challenge is sort of a "cross your fingers" kind of thing because until now Casey has largely skated into office, and his true mettle has yet to be tested. He could just as easily bomb on the campaign trail and lose to Santorum.

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

I think the premise that Iraq is the biggest issue is total B.S... The Downing Street "memo" was a fraud, now the media pundits have to invent something else...

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

the uneven economy

The economy is chugging along nicely.

By election day next year the Dow will be at or above 12000 and the Nasdaq 2600.

Unemployment will be at 4.6% and Iraq will not be an issue.

New oil and gas discoveries off the east and west coasts will drive down fuel costs and plans for several new nuclear power plants will be approved.

And don't forget Karl Rove.

He has something devilish up his sleeves.

Just wait and see!!

[Nateman]

Anyone from Vermont care to run as a democrat? You won't have to do much , the D next to your name on the ballot would automatically get the vote of a bunch of RATS and might therefore split the vote enough to have a real republican win the seat for six years.

[democrats_nightmare]

Kay Bailey Hutchison (D) (Last Ranking: 11)

Kay Bailey Hutchison is a Demonrat?????

He must really know what he is talking about!!!!!

[Chuckster]

They lucked out in 2004, but 2006 is a whole new ballgame

And since the Republicans have demonstrated that they have no balls, even with a solid majority in both houses, obviously they cannot, and do not derserve to, win. It will serve them right to lose control. They don't know what to do with it when they have it anyway.

[fso301]

Without an heir apparent candidate for the White House in 2008, Republican Senators and Congressmen are scrambling for the position. As a result, they don't want to cooperate on anything coming before Congress lest a potential rival receive credit.

[Aetius]

I never understood why Bush made Johanns Ag Secretary. I wonder if Johanns had no interest in the Senate all along?

I am a bit worried about this Ohio thing now.

[PhiKapMom]

Anyone that lists Kay Bailey as a Democrat as the credibility of a gnat. Less than impressed with the analysis.

[Katya]

Of all the races, I'd really like to see us unseat Kent Conrad. Simply put, the Dakotas should have this many democrats NOT representing their interests.

Maryland's democratic senate primary should be quite interesting...at this point it's Kweisi Mfume's to win, unless they "allow" Chris van Hollen (who beat RINO Connie Morrella for congress) to run. I say "allow", because he's white and I don't think they want to see a racial race in their primary. Chris would ultimately win over Mfume. Primarily because Mfume makes alot of people (mostly white democrats) uncomfortable. Michael Steele the black republican lieutenant Governor could have a strong position in the senate race running against the whiter than white bread Chris V. Hollen.

[Katya]

I should have added....the only thing the democrats might throw at Mr. Steele, is his familial connection with Mike Tyson, who happened to have been married to Michael's sister, a Washington pediatrician.

[California Patriot]

"will serve them right to lose control."

That's cutting off your nose to spite your face. We cannot let the Rats win back the Senate. It would be a disaster.

[longtermmemmory]

I think this is the MSM pushing democrats so somebody will bother to watch.

If the race is over before it started the MSM will get no ratings.

[dangus]

The way I see it, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island quite possibly Democratic pickups. Actually, the only debate is whether to consider Chafee's defeat a "Hold" or a "Pick-up" for the Demonrats. Montana is in play. I can't see the Demonrats gaining a seat in a southern state that the Democrats couldn't pick up for its own native son. And it ain't gonna be Harold Ford! Meanwhile, if DeWine is in trouble, it's from his own party; and Talent is quite safe.

DEMOCRATS GROSS TWO PICKUP SEATS

Meanwhile: Minnesota is nearly a lock for a Republican pick-up. North Dakota and Florida look very weak for Demonrats. Lt. Gov Steele could carry Republican-slipping Maryland, where even the crabs aren't as blue as they should be. Byrd is in deep doo-doo. And Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) are leading very blue states where the locals are feeling very let down by their ruling parties, particularly in Washington where the mood is that Demonrats stole the statehouse. And the big shocker could be in Hawaii, where Akaka is seemingly medically and financially challenged, and the Republicans are in ascendency, capturing the statehouse for the first time since colonialism. True, the supposed shocking Republican challenge in the '04 Presidential race fizzled, but that could've been affected by false media reports saying Kerry had wrapped up the national contest.

New Jersey and New York should be safe, but those two states may have to siphon huge bucks away from other contests. And there are NINE endangered races.

REPUBLICANS GROSS TWO TO SEVEN SEATS

Overall prediction:
REPUBLICANS NET TWO TO THREE SEATS.