Posted on 06/22/2005 6:26:32 PM PDT by RWR8189
The way I see it, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island quite possibly Democratic pickups. Actually, the only debate is whether to consider Chafee's defeat a "Hold" or a "Pick-up" for the Demonrats. Montana is in play. I can't see the Demonrats gaining a seat in a southern state that the Democrats couldn't pick up for its own native son. And it ain't gonna be Harold Ford! Meanwhile, if DeWine is in trouble, it's from his own party; and Talent is quite safe.
DEMOCRATS GROSS TWO PICKUP SEATS
Meanwhile: Minnesota is nearly a lock for a Republican pick-up. North Dakota and Florida look very weak for Demonrats. Lt. Gov Steele could carry Republican-slipping Maryland, where even the crabs aren't as blue as they should be. Byrd is in deep doo-doo. And Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) are leading very blue states where the locals are feeling very let down by their ruling parties, particularly in Washington where the mood is that Demonrats stole the statehouse. And the big shocker could be in Hawaii, where Akaka is seemingly medically and financially challenged, and the Republicans are in ascendency, capturing the statehouse for the first time since colonialism. True, the supposed shocking Republican challenge in the '04 Presidential race fizzled, but that could've been affected by false media reports saying Kerry had wrapped up the national contest.
New Jersey and New York should be safe, but those two states may have to siphon huge bucks away from other contests. And there are NINE endangered races.
REPUBLICANS GROSS TWO TO SEVEN SEATS
Overall prediction:
REPUBLICANS NET TWO TO THREE SEATS.
Nah, think big. We netted more seats than most people expected in '04. It can happen again, with the right candidates and the right campaigns. Let's start talking about a NET of SIX:
Maryland, West Virginia, Florida, N. Dak., Minn.
Then, if Bingaman of NM, Feinstein of CA, and Akaka (nearly 80) of Hawaii don't run ... we could win one of the three.
Not impossible.
Seats in real danger on our side: Santorum (PA) and Burns (MT). But we can save 'em.
Larry Sabato,of Va., a self-proclaimed political guru, sees no chance that the Dems control the Senate but does predict some real surprises whereby Dems pick up a seat or two from Pub areas and vice versa for Pubs in Dem areas. A wash.
The skinny on Vermont:
The two most popular liberals are both non-Democrats: Sen. James Jeffords, and Rep. Bernie Sanders. I hadn't realized this: They formed a party together, the preposterously named "Veterans Party of America."
The candidates:
DEMOCRATS:
Rep. Bernie Sanders. I'm not sure I expect him to run. The communist would have to call himself a Democrat. Would the Democrats be shy of that? As a maverick/radical, he has high approval ratings, but that might not be so appealling to Vermonters in the Senate.
Atty. Gen. William Sorrell. Sorrell was Dean's unelected bagman when Vermont legalized homsexual "marriages." Since then, he's been re-elected three times, with little opposition.
REPUBLICANS:
Gov. James Douglas has excellent approval ratings (60-27). Might want to keep his job though.
Lt. Gov. Brian Dubey could catch his wind, though.
With that said, though, the 2008 Senate elections scare me, because we have 21 seats up for reelection and the Dims have only 12.
I can't see us beating Conrad. In the recent SurveyUSA polling of all 100 Senators' approval ratings, Conrad was near the top... I believe his approval was just over 70 percent.
I have trouble seeing that seat as a pickup with those numbers.
BTW, to add to my earlier posts... I think we could see more Senators retiring by the time the elections roll around.
That's quite possible. But my scenario is possible, too. I'm just saying: Think big, talk big, and don't exclude our highest hopes from the realm of possibility.
The more we denounce the Rats in the Senate, the more we demoralize them and contribute to the possibilities of retirement. It might be good to target specific Senate Rats with psychological warfare for exactly this purpose.
To the other poster who warned that 2008 could be terrible in the Senate because of the R/D lineup: All the more reason to win big in '06.
"To the other poster who warned that 2008 could be terrible in the Senate because of the R/D lineup: All the more reason to win big in '06. "
That was me. And I agree that we need to win big in '06 because '08 could be troublesome, just by the sheer numbers of it.
I suppose if you had the national media repeating your propaganda on a daily basis, trashing the President, lying about the war, and making republican's appear more evil than Hitler, you'd be climbing in the polls too!
Didn't Sanders already announce he would run, and Dean embraced him?
You see gang, ole chuckie KNOWS more than the rats in the senate who are running out the door.corzine was the rat in charge of getting more rats elected to the Senate. Maybe he knows more about this than chuckie does.
Memo to chuckie todd: The rats won't get back the Senate or the House or the White House in your lifetime.
Dean said publicly that Bernie is not a Socialist, but a Liberal.
Sorry, I blew the wording. I probably should've worded it "I'm not sure I BELIEVE that Bernie is running." Howard Dean put the proviso that "We've got a few things to work out. Bernie's not a Democrat.
Same article (Bennington Banner, May 10th): "Jeff Weaver, Sanders' chief of staff and campaign spokesman, said the congressman won't formally announce his candidacy until 'much later this year.'"
I've seen subsequent articles refer to him as if he were runing, but I haven't seen him declare. And I'm not positive he'll join the Democrats, and I take Dean's message to say that even Dean has a problem with his candidacy since he's not a Democrat.
Vermont's Democratic AG wants the nomination. So if Sanders won't become a Democrat, how's he going to get the nomination? The only way the Democrats support a non-Democrat is if there IS no Democratic candidate. But unless AG changes his mind, there will be one. So Sanders will HAVE to become a Democrat.
By the way: Dean is head of the DNC. They support Democrats for non-federal (i.e., gubernatorial) contests, and for the Presidency. They do not support Senatorial candidates. That's the DNSC. So Dean's opinion is little more than a politician's praise, not even an endorsement.
Will Sanders get the nod? Brain says he will. Gut isn't sure.
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