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Are Democrats Creeping Into Contention? (2006 Senate Outlooks)
National Journal ^ | June 22, 2005 | Chuck Todd

Posted on 06/22/2005 6:26:32 PM PDT by RWR8189

 With just under 18 months to go until Election Day 2006, things continue to look up for Senate Democrats. The ingredients -- violence in Iraq, the uneven economy and partisan tension -- are there for the party to make a comeback after two cycles of GOP dominance.

Iraq, the number one issue for voters, is devouring the Republican Party. And with no new moment to look for that doesn't have the word "withdrawal" in it, it's hard to see how the situation improves before next November. We've caught Saddam Hussein, we've turned over power, we've held elections and the level of violence appears to be the same to the lay voter. We've been writing for months that at some point, Iraq was going to hurt the Republicans as much as it helped them in 2002. They lucked out in 2004, but 2006 is a whole new ballgame.

With at least six legitimate targets for the Democrats, the Senate is officially in play for the first time this cycle. We're not naïve. Minnesota and Maryland won't be easy for the party to defend. Add North Dakota and Democrats have their work cut out for them. But on the plus side, Republicans haven't found A-list recruits in places like Nebraska, Washington and Florida. While those three seats won't be easy for the Democrats to defend, things could be much worse.

And with that, our latest rankings. Remember, these seats are ranked in order of vulnerability to a party switch, i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat we view as most likely to flip to the other party, while the bottom-ranked race is the seat we see as the least likely:

Senate Ratings

 

  1. Pennsylvania (Santorum-R)
  2. Rhode Island (Chafee-R)
  3. Minnesota (Open-D)
  4. Maryland (Open-D)
  5. North Dakota (Conrad-D)
  6. Montana (Burns-R)
  7. Florida (Nelson-D)
  8. Tennessee (Open-R)
  9. New Jersey (Open?-D)
10. Nebraska (Nelson-D)
11. West Virginia (Byrd-D)
12. Arizona (Kyl-R)
13. Missouri (Talent-R)
14. Michigan (Stabenow-D)
15. Washington (Cantwell-D)
16. Vermont (Open-I)
17. Ohio (DeWine-R)
18. Indiana (Lugar-R)
19. New Mexico (Bingaman-D)
20. Maine (Snowe-R)
21. Virginia (Allen-R)
22. Nevada (Ensign-R)
23. New York (Clinton-D)
24. Wisconsin (Kohl-D)
25. Wyoming (Thomas-R)
26. California (Feinstein-D)
27. Mississippi (Lott-R)
28. Connecticut (Lieberman-D)
29. Hawaii (Akaka-D)
30. Delaware (Carper-D)
31. Texas (Hutchison-R)
32. Massachusetts (Kennedy-D)
33. Utah (Hatch-R)

1. PENNSYLVANIA
    Rick Santorum (R)
     Last ranking: 2
The only incumbent up in 2006 who consistently polls behind his announced opponent is Santorum. For that reason alone, we have to move him into the top spot. Bob Casey Jr. (D) may not be tough enough to win, but it's possible that Santorum is just carrying too much baggage to take this swing state. However, questions about Casey date back to 2002 when he not only lost a primary for governor, but suffered a double-digit defeat to Ed Rendell. Plus, he was dragged into this race. Will there be enough fire from him once this thing gets down and dirty?

2. RHODE ISLAND
    Lincoln Chafee (R)
     Last ranking: 1
Speaking of baggage, Chafee's certainly carrying a lot of it. And it's the weight of that baggage, not the worthiness of his Democratic opponents, that makes him so vulnerable. Democrats are down to their third and fourth choices in Sheldon Whitehouse and Matt Brown. And it's likely that the nastiness of the Democratic primary will be just the thing Chafee needs to survive. If you think all this reads as if it's a replay of the 2000 campaign, you're not alone. In that campaign, Democrats failed to get their first or second choices and were stuck with a nasty primary. The only difference this cycle is that Chafee might have to deal with a primary challenge of his own. If that happens, Democrats may find an opening.

3. MINNESOTA
    Open SeatMark Dayton (D) is retiring
     Last ranking: 3
In nearly half of the in-play Senate races, Democrats must deal with a primary before they can unite against the GOP. In this race, that primary is not just a problem for the party but for one of the party's leading interest groups, EMILY's List. With both Patty Wetterling and Amy Klobuchar running, the pro-choice women's campaign group faces a dilemma. While the group has tried to encourage Wetterling to seek the state's open 6th District seat, she's not taking the bait.

Right now, it appears Klobuchar has the best shot at garnering that key endorsement. And, should Klobuchar secure the backing of the state party, Wetterling has promised not to run in the primary. That's not the case with self-funding Kelly Doran, who has no plans to participate in the party endorsement process and has every intention of contesting the actual primary.

All this Democratic action allows GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy to continue stockpiling cash. While there have been rumors he could still face a primary challenge, it appears this former Rep. Vin Weber boomlet started by the state's right-leaning blogs is nothing but hot air.

4. Maryland
    Open SeatPaul Sarbanes (D) is retiring
     Last ranking: 24
Maryland's strong Democratic nature is the only thing keeping this race as low as fourth. Likely GOP nominee Michael Steele is the real deal, and the field of Democrats is underwhelming. The combination could be enough for Steele to pull off the near-impossible. At a minimum, this is going to be a real contest.

The Democrats' two best candidates -- Martin O'Malley and Doug Duncan -- are running for governor , leaving the party with a field of good, but not great, alternatives. Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin has all the respect in the world from his state colleagues, but he hasn't had a competitive race in nearly 25 years. Is he up for this? Former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume has plenty of problems that could worsen when the second quarter Federal Election Commission report is released. Rep. Chris Van Hollen is the wild card. He's the only battle-tested Democrat in the field. Van Hollen may have the best chops for what will be a very competitive general against Steele.

5. NORTH DAKOTA
    Kent Conrad (D)
     Last ranking: 7
The longer GOP Gov. John Hoeven stalls, the more convinced we become that he's leaning toward a run. It appears he's trying to hold off "lame-duckdom" in his gubernatorial term for as long as possible by announcing a bid as late as possible. Hoeven won't need a lot of money to make this race competitive so he can afford to wait until the end of the year.

6. MONTANA
    Conrad Burns (R)
     Last ranking: 17
One of the more surprising primary problems facing the Democrats is here. Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester are both solid recruits, particularly since Burns is always a slow closer. It's unclear which Democrat would give Burns the tougher race. Apparently, Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is whispering good things about both candidates because we've heard from partisans in each camp who claim the governor is behind them.

7. FLORIDA
    Bill Nelson (D)
     Last ranking: 6
If Nelson were the political juggernaut some Florida Democrats want us to believe he is, we'd have this seat ranked lower. But he's not. Nelson has always benefited from weak GOP opponents and, should he win re-election, that reputation will only grow thanks to GOP Rep. Katherine Harris. Divisive political figures don't normally do well in Florida, which is why we're having trouble picturing Harris actually winning. Still, Nelson's not the best campaigner, and we fully expect the former secretary of state to keep this race very close. If the GOP has wind in its favor next fall, she could pull the upset.

8. TENNESSEE
    Open SeatBill Frist (R) is retiring
     Last ranking: 5
We know we're supposed to believe Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. doesn't have a chance, but we're not there yet. Fresh off of a disastrous announcement week thanks to his uncle's arrest, Ford decided to roll the dice by going up with the very first TV ad of the 2006 cycle. This is the type of move that should convince Republicans that Ford's not going to be the pushover they expected. Spending a lot and focusing on Iraq, not his biography, tells potential Democratic donors that Ford is serious.

Meanwhile, the GOP primary appears to be no closer to being sorted out. While Bob Corker's fund-raising abilities seemed impressive early on, this next quarter should tell us which one of the two conservative candidates, Van Hilleary or Ed Bryant, will be Corker's chief challenger.

9. NEW JERSEY
    Open Seat?Jon Corzine (D) is running for governor in 2005
     Last ranking: 10
Until we know Corzine's fate, this race is still undeveloped. That said, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is getting a great head start as the potential GOP standard-bearer while the three likely Democratic replacements -- Reps. Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone and Rob Andrews -- remain locked in limbo. It's a bizarre situation for the three Democrats -- raising money for a potential primary while also making a case to the one voter who matters most, Corzine.

There was a lot of pushback from supporters of the other two major Democrats when we wrote earlier that Menendez seemed to be the perfect successor. But Corzine could shock all three contenders and name a caretaker, a prospect that may not thrill the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. For now, the incumbent's got to focus on the task at hand, a gubernatorial campaign that will be tougher than many Democrats realize.

10. NEBRASKA
      Ben Nelson (D)
       Last ranking: 4
This state represents a great recruiting disappointment for the GOP, and the White House is to blame. By naming Mike Johanns secretary of Agriculture, President Bush took away one of the two Republicans who could probably beat Nelson. The other Republican, Rep. Tom Osborne, is running for governor and apparently has no interest in taking on his old friend. The state is Republican enough that any nominee could give Nelson a close race, but the Democrat's been pretty smart in handling himself so far. It's hard to see how the Republicans will make the case to Nebraska voters to fire Nelson.

11. WEST VIRGINIA
      Robert Byrd (D)
       Last ranking: 13
This race only cracks our top 12 because of the chance GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito may run. Word is her father, former Gov. Arch Moore, has been pushing Capito to join the race, and according to our sources, his advice is among the most influential to her. That said, Byrd's been taking no chances and is raising money at a surprisingly fast clip. Clearly Capito can give the incumbent a race; it's not clear whether she can actually win.

12. ARIZONA
      Jon Kyl (R)
       Last ranking: 16
It's not easy being the junior senator in Arizona and that fact more than any other probably contributes to the notion that Kyl is more vulnerable than he should be. The presence of a self-funding Democratic opponent, state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson, will mean this could be a long cycle for Kyl. And John McCain (R) is a double-edged sword. While we fully expect Pederson to make the case that Kyl's "no McCain," Kyl will have no more powerful endorser toward the end of the contest than the popular senator.

The previous 12 races are the one that we're fairly convinced will remain competitive the entire cycle. These next nine depend solely on recruiting by the out party. Call them our "tweeners":

13. MISSOURI
      Jim Talent (R)
       Last ranking: 14
Auditor Claire McCaskill might actually make this a race. We're not convinced enough to move it out of our "tweener" section just yet, but should she announce, it's yet another sign the Democrats will be making a much more serious run at the majority than any of us would have expected six months ago.

14. MICHIGAN
      Debbie Stabenow (D)
       Last ranking: 9
National Republicans are still searching for a candidate while in-state party officials begin rallying around the Rev. Keith Butler (R). At the end of the day, we expect Stabenow's chances to depend more on the political health of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm than any GOP Senate challenger.

15. WASHINGTON
      Maria Cantwell (D)
       Last ranking: 12
With almost-Gov. Dino Rossi all but out, Republicans probably are not going to be able to give Cantwell the race they would have liked. There are still a few interesting names circulating but nothing certain just yet.

16. VERMONT
      Open SeatJames Jeffords (I) is retiring
       Last ranking: 27
Without the Democrats nominating someone, it's hard to see how the GOP stops Independent Rep. Bernie Sanders from becoming a member of the world's most exclusive club. Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie or businessman Dick Tarrant might make things somewhat interesting, but we don't see it just yet.

17. OHIO
      Mike DeWine (R)
       Last ranking: 22
There's something going on in this state, and it's not pretty if you're a Republican. The scandal plaguing Ohio has nothing to do with DeWine, yet we can see a scenario where elected officials running in 2006 with an "(R)" next to their names are in big trouble. Democrats are still searching for someone to challenge DeWine, which is why this seat is still low on our rankings. But if either former Attorney General Lee Fisher or former Rep. Dennis Eckart runs, expect this race to move up.

18. INDIANA
      Richard Lugar (R)
       Last ranking: 31
The only reason we have this race in the "tweener" section is because of the sudden interest by former Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer. While we can't fathom Roemer actually beating Lugar, he is a respectable enough figure to make things a bit uneasy for the very popular Republican. This is an "icing" type race for the DSCC if Roemer jumps in.

19. NEW MEXICO
      Jeff Bingaman (D)
       Last ranking: 8
It looks like the GOP won't find a credible challenger to Bingaman, who is potentially vulnerable. This race could easily end up in snoozerville before the year is out.

20. MAINE
      Olympia Snowe (R)
       Last ranking: 15
Speaking of still searching, Democrats are doing just that in this state. Did someone say "snoozerville"?

21. VIRGINIA
      George Allen (R)
       Last ranking: 18
Democratic Gov. Mark Warner seems unlikely to run. No doubt some of Allen's potential GOP presidential rivals wish Democrats would find somebody to keep Allen busy next cycle but that doesn't seem likely.

Our "snoozer" section continues to get a little bigger. We'd like to officially welcome Herb Kohl and Kay Bailey Hutchison to the list since our last rankings.

 

22. Nevada: John Ensign (R) (Last Ranking: 28)
23. New York: Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) (Last Ranking: 21)
24. Wisconsin: Herb Kohl (R) (Last Ranking: 19)
25. Wyoming: Craig Thomas (R) (Last Ranking: 20)
26. California: Dianne Feinstein (D) (Last Ranking: 23)
27. Mississippi: Trent Lott (R) (Last Ranking: 25)
28. Connecticut: Joseph Lieberman (D) (Last Ranking: 26)
29. Hawaii: Daniel Akaka (D) (Last Ranking: 29
30. Delaware: Tom Carper (D) (Last Ranking: 30)
31. Texas: Kay Bailey Hutchison (D) (Last Ranking: 11)
32. Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D) (Last Ranking: 32)
33. Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) (Last Ranking: 33)

-- Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; bigspin; bs; bullshirt; georgeallen; senate; ussenate
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To: RWR8189

The way I see it, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island quite possibly Democratic pickups. Actually, the only debate is whether to consider Chafee's defeat a "Hold" or a "Pick-up" for the Demonrats. Montana is in play. I can't see the Demonrats gaining a seat in a southern state that the Democrats couldn't pick up for its own native son. And it ain't gonna be Harold Ford! Meanwhile, if DeWine is in trouble, it's from his own party; and Talent is quite safe.

DEMOCRATS GROSS TWO PICKUP SEATS

Meanwhile: Minnesota is nearly a lock for a Republican pick-up. North Dakota and Florida look very weak for Demonrats. Lt. Gov Steele could carry Republican-slipping Maryland, where even the crabs aren't as blue as they should be. Byrd is in deep doo-doo. And Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) are leading very blue states where the locals are feeling very let down by their ruling parties, particularly in Washington where the mood is that Demonrats stole the statehouse. And the big shocker could be in Hawaii, where Akaka is seemingly medically and financially challenged, and the Republicans are in ascendency, capturing the statehouse for the first time since colonialism. True, the supposed shocking Republican challenge in the '04 Presidential race fizzled, but that could've been affected by false media reports saying Kerry had wrapped up the national contest.

New Jersey and New York should be safe, but those two states may have to siphon huge bucks away from other contests. And there are NINE endangered races.

REPUBLICANS GROSS TWO TO SEVEN SEATS

Overall prediction:
REPUBLICANS NET TWO TO THREE SEATS.


21 posted on 06/22/2005 8:40:41 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
Seven out of Eleven endangered seats are held by Democrats, and the Republicans are in trouble? And one those four Republican seats is a die-hard liberal we'd be better off without.
22 posted on 06/22/2005 8:44:25 PM PDT by dangus
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To: everyone

Nah, think big. We netted more seats than most people expected in '04. It can happen again, with the right candidates and the right campaigns. Let's start talking about a NET of SIX:

Maryland, West Virginia, Florida, N. Dak., Minn.

Then, if Bingaman of NM, Feinstein of CA, and Akaka (nearly 80) of Hawaii don't run ... we could win one of the three.

Not impossible.

Seats in real danger on our side: Santorum (PA) and Burns (MT). But we can save 'em.


23 posted on 06/22/2005 8:48:19 PM PDT by California Patriot
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To: California Patriot

Larry Sabato,of Va., a self-proclaimed political guru, sees no chance that the Dems control the Senate but does predict some real surprises whereby Dems pick up a seat or two from Pub areas and vice versa for Pubs in Dem areas. A wash.


24 posted on 06/22/2005 8:59:14 PM PDT by phillyfanatic
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To: RWR8189

The skinny on Vermont:

The two most popular liberals are both non-Democrats: Sen. James Jeffords, and Rep. Bernie Sanders. I hadn't realized this: They formed a party together, the preposterously named "Veterans Party of America."

The candidates:
DEMOCRATS:
Rep. Bernie Sanders. I'm not sure I expect him to run. The communist would have to call himself a Democrat. Would the Democrats be shy of that? As a maverick/radical, he has high approval ratings, but that might not be so appealling to Vermonters in the Senate.
Atty. Gen. William Sorrell. Sorrell was Dean's unelected bagman when Vermont legalized homsexual "marriages." Since then, he's been re-elected three times, with little opposition.

REPUBLICANS:
Gov. James Douglas has excellent approval ratings (60-27). Might want to keep his job though.
Lt. Gov. Brian Dubey could catch his wind, though.


25 posted on 06/22/2005 9:17:08 PM PDT by dangus
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To: RWR8189
Thanks for posting that excellent analysis. However, I am highly skeptical that Democrats can regain the majority.. this election sounds a lot like 2004. Democrats had no chance at retaking the majority a year and a half out until the MSM started pumping up their candidates and then the doomsayers said Republicans were in for a tough election. However, in the end we ended up gaining a couple of seats... and I think we will in 2006, as well.

With that said, though, the 2008 Senate elections scare me, because we have 21 seats up for reelection and the Dims have only 12.

26 posted on 06/22/2005 9:41:29 PM PDT by okstate
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To: Katya

I can't see us beating Conrad. In the recent SurveyUSA polling of all 100 Senators' approval ratings, Conrad was near the top... I believe his approval was just over 70 percent.

I have trouble seeing that seat as a pickup with those numbers.


27 posted on 06/22/2005 9:46:30 PM PDT by okstate
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To: okstate

BTW, to add to my earlier posts... I think we could see more Senators retiring by the time the elections roll around.


28 posted on 06/22/2005 9:47:40 PM PDT by okstate
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To: phillyfanatic

That's quite possible. But my scenario is possible, too. I'm just saying: Think big, talk big, and don't exclude our highest hopes from the realm of possibility.


29 posted on 06/22/2005 10:07:57 PM PDT by California Patriot
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To: okstate

The more we denounce the Rats in the Senate, the more we demoralize them and contribute to the possibilities of retirement. It might be good to target specific Senate Rats with psychological warfare for exactly this purpose.

To the other poster who warned that 2008 could be terrible in the Senate because of the R/D lineup: All the more reason to win big in '06.


30 posted on 06/22/2005 10:10:36 PM PDT by California Patriot
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To: California Patriot

"To the other poster who warned that 2008 could be terrible in the Senate because of the R/D lineup: All the more reason to win big in '06. "

That was me. And I agree that we need to win big in '06 because '08 could be troublesome, just by the sheer numbers of it.


31 posted on 06/22/2005 10:34:43 PM PDT by okstate
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To: RWR8189

I suppose if you had the national media repeating your propaganda on a daily basis, trashing the President, lying about the war, and making republican's appear more evil than Hitler, you'd be climbing in the polls too!


32 posted on 06/22/2005 10:38:36 PM PDT by ladyinred
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To: dangus

Didn't Sanders already announce he would run, and Dean embraced him?


33 posted on 06/22/2005 10:39:51 PM PDT by RWR8189 (I Will Sit on My Hands in 2008 Instead of Voting for McCain)(No Money for the NRSC)
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To: RWR8189

You see gang, ole chuckie KNOWS more than the rats in the senate who are running out the door.corzine was the rat in charge of getting more rats elected to the Senate. Maybe he knows more about this than chuckie does.
Memo to chuckie todd: The rats won't get back the Senate or the House or the White House in your lifetime.


34 posted on 06/23/2005 5:17:12 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Dealing with liberals? Remember: when you wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty and he loves it.)
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To: RWR8189

Dean said publicly that Bernie is not a Socialist, but a Liberal.


35 posted on 06/23/2005 5:28:56 AM PDT by mathluv
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To: RWR8189

Sorry, I blew the wording. I probably should've worded it "I'm not sure I BELIEVE that Bernie is running." Howard Dean put the proviso that "We've got a few things to work out. Bernie's not a Democrat.

Same article (Bennington Banner, May 10th): "Jeff Weaver, Sanders' chief of staff and campaign spokesman, said the congressman won't formally announce his candidacy until 'much later this year.'"

I've seen subsequent articles refer to him as if he were runing, but I haven't seen him declare. And I'm not positive he'll join the Democrats, and I take Dean's message to say that even Dean has a problem with his candidacy since he's not a Democrat.

Vermont's Democratic AG wants the nomination. So if Sanders won't become a Democrat, how's he going to get the nomination? The only way the Democrats support a non-Democrat is if there IS no Democratic candidate. But unless AG changes his mind, there will be one. So Sanders will HAVE to become a Democrat.

By the way: Dean is head of the DNC. They support Democrats for non-federal (i.e., gubernatorial) contests, and for the Presidency. They do not support Senatorial candidates. That's the DNSC. So Dean's opinion is little more than a politician's praise, not even an endorsement.

Will Sanders get the nod? Brain says he will. Gut isn't sure.


36 posted on 06/23/2005 8:42:30 AM PDT by dangus
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