The way I see it, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island quite possibly Democratic pickups. Actually, the only debate is whether to consider Chafee's defeat a "Hold" or a "Pick-up" for the Demonrats. Montana is in play. I can't see the Demonrats gaining a seat in a southern state that the Democrats couldn't pick up for its own native son. And it ain't gonna be Harold Ford! Meanwhile, if DeWine is in trouble, it's from his own party; and Talent is quite safe.
DEMOCRATS GROSS TWO PICKUP SEATS
Meanwhile: Minnesota is nearly a lock for a Republican pick-up. North Dakota and Florida look very weak for Demonrats. Lt. Gov Steele could carry Republican-slipping Maryland, where even the crabs aren't as blue as they should be. Byrd is in deep doo-doo. And Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) are leading very blue states where the locals are feeling very let down by their ruling parties, particularly in Washington where the mood is that Demonrats stole the statehouse. And the big shocker could be in Hawaii, where Akaka is seemingly medically and financially challenged, and the Republicans are in ascendency, capturing the statehouse for the first time since colonialism. True, the supposed shocking Republican challenge in the '04 Presidential race fizzled, but that could've been affected by false media reports saying Kerry had wrapped up the national contest.
New Jersey and New York should be safe, but those two states may have to siphon huge bucks away from other contests. And there are NINE endangered races.
REPUBLICANS GROSS TWO TO SEVEN SEATS
Overall prediction:
REPUBLICANS NET TWO TO THREE SEATS.
Nah, think big. We netted more seats than most people expected in '04. It can happen again, with the right candidates and the right campaigns. Let's start talking about a NET of SIX:
Maryland, West Virginia, Florida, N. Dak., Minn.
Then, if Bingaman of NM, Feinstein of CA, and Akaka (nearly 80) of Hawaii don't run ... we could win one of the three.
Not impossible.
Seats in real danger on our side: Santorum (PA) and Burns (MT). But we can save 'em.