Democrats Covet The West But Can't Keep Losing The South (Dems Left Whistling Dixie Alert)

Los Angeles Times ^ | 05/16/05 | Ronald Brownstein

[goldstategop]

But new long-term population projections from the Census Bureau show that anyone who believes Democrats can consistently win the White House without puncturing the Republican dominance across the South is just whistling Dixie. The census projections present Democrats with an ominous equation: the South is growing in electoral clout even as the Republican hold on the region solidifies.

Veteran demographer William H. Frey, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, this month extrapolated the census numbers into projections for the electoral college over the next quarter century. His conclusions, in a paper titled "The Electoral College Moves to the Sun Belt," framed challenges for both parties but raised the toughest questions for Democrats.

Overall, Frey forecast a continued shift in influence from "blue" states where Democrats have run best, primarily in the Northeast and Midwest, to "red" Sunbelt states that mostly have voted Republican in presidential elections since the 1960s.

The shift isn't precipitous, but it appears inexorable. In 2004, Bush won 286 electoral college votes, while Democrat John F. Kerry tallied 252 (with 270 needed for victory). Frey projects that after the 2010 census, four electoral college votes will shift from Kerry states to Bush states. ...

There are enough crosscurrents to discourage any simple assumption that demographic change guarantees Republican continuity in the White House. But one conclusion seems inescapable: Democrats need to expand their map. The states that favor them are shrinking in influence — which means the party will too unless it can challenge the Republican hold on the states, especially in the South, adding population and votes with each passing day.

[goldstategop]

The Democrats have become a party of the coasts. And in the South, with each passing day, they're relegated to becoming a permanent liberal minority and oh boy, ain't that Whistling Dixie. Call it a Dean Scream moment!

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[Qwinn]

The Roe Effect continues.

Qwinn

[goldstategop]

I'd call it the Zell Miller Effect. Southern Democrats have been abandoned by their own party and it keeps showing up in the shift to the GOP across the South. Unless the Democrats get rid of the kooky Left that runs their party, they'll keep hemorrhaging in the Old Confederacy. And electoral votes will simply keep shifting out of their Blue State strongholds and the slight increase in California, their one bastion, isn't enough to make up for the severe losses elsewhere. You can't write off an entire section of the country and still call yourself a national party.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[Qwinn]

There's two parts to this story. One is the solidifying "redness" of the South. That is in fact the Zell Miller effect, as you noted. The other part is the electoral vote switch from blue states to red states, and that's what I'm referring to when I mention the Roe Effect.

Qwinn

[R. Scott]

With all the Yankee liberals moving to the South, the dems may believe that they will take over politically. Infiltrate and conquer.

[goldstategop]

I'm more worried about the illegal alien time bomb than I am about Yankee liberals. One needs to keep an eye on that demographic threat.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[poobear]

"With all the Yankee liberals moving to the South, the dems may believe that they will take over politically. Infiltrate and conquer."

I've been watching this trend for decades. I am very surprised that this strategy is still failing. They just haven't perfected the voter fraud I guess.

[gridlock]

To mix metaphors, the Donks are whistling Dixie past the graveyard.

[Just A Nobody]

The big lesson for Democrats ... particularly Florida and states such as Arkansas, Virginia and Tennessee.

Moved to Virginia 2 weeks ago...just doing my part.

[R. Scott]

Give them time. Northern Virginia is already Yankee.

[TXBSAFH]

Exactly, the dems aretoast for the next decade or two.

[monocle]

The illegal alien problem is moe insidious than most think. The census counts all people whether citizens or not. Since the census numbers are used in allocating Congressional seats, the Electoral College will be biased to those states having the highest number of illegal aliens. I would guess that illegal aliens will head to larger urban areas to avoid detection. Since most larger urban areas are Democratic, it stands to reason that Democrats have far more to gain from illegal aliens.

A further problem is that both parties are wooing the Hispanic community because it is the fastest growing minority and neither party will take the necessary steps in fear of losing support from both legal and illegal aliens or even from citizens of Hispanic background.

[libertylover]

The area of Florida where I move to 25 years ago has gone from strongly Democrat to strongly Republican and the local paper, Florida Today, gets madder by the moment.

[Wonder Warthog]

"With all the Yankee liberals moving to the South, the dems may believe that they will take over politically. Infiltrate and conquer."

Methinks you have it wrong. The Yankees moving south are more likely Yankee CONSERVATIVES who have gotten fed up with "blue-state" policies and politics. I suspect the doctrinaire Yankee liberal types wouldn't even contemplate contaminating their intellectual and moral superiority by condescending to move among a bunch of conservative rednecks.

[white trash redneck]

Methinks you have it wrong. The Yankees moving south are more likely Yankee CONSERVATIVES who have gotten fed up with "blue-state" policies and politics. I suspect the doctrinaire Yankee liberal types wouldn't even contemplate contaminating their intellectual and moral superiority by condescending to move among a bunch of conservative rednecks

The two of you are discussing an issue that has puzzled me for some time.

Like RS, I've been concerned that it may be liberal RAT's moving into red states for economic reasons, and that the southward and westward population shift might lead to those states becoming less red. For example, my own home town of Durham NC has been growing like crazy, fueled largely by out of state immigrants coming for econonic reasons. Atlanta and Austin also come to mind. And though we can argue the causes (and even whether correlation implies causation), there does appear to be an unmistakable link between population density and RAT voting patterns, and as redstate populations grow, they also grow denser.

I'd like to think that WW's comment about the type of person who'd emigrate to a red state is true. Certainly I'd think very hard about emigrating to a blue state. And yet I'm concerned that he may be whistling past the graveyard. Is there any data on the voting habits of people who move from blue states to red states?

[R. Scott]

I hope you are right.

[jmaroneps37]

"Frey offers another wild card. Seniors over time will constitute a larger share of the population in the big Midwest battlegrounds, he notes. So while the loss of electoral college clout in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan will hurt Democrats, he thinks the region's overall graying might create a more receptive audience for Democratic economic security messages in states leaning Republican, such as Missouri and Ohio."
The problem in this line of thinking is that by the month, "seniors" are becoming less of a remnant of FDR and more of Ike. These people will not necessarily have cast their first vote for a rat. Their vote will be split and neutralized.

[R. Scott]

Is there any data on the voting habits of people who move from blue states to red states?

If there is, I’d like to see it. Hopefully I’m wrong and it is conservatives heading South.

[goldstategop]

Most new retirees in Florida are northern liberals who bring along their old voting habits with them. They come for the lower cost of living and the warmth. Check out the Palm Beach/Miami Dade demographics.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)

[R. Scott]

That is one of the reasons I am concerned.