Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Good luck trying to control freeflowing debate on the internet. You're fighting a losing battle.
WHOA! Say it ain't so! Take a break , but don't quit. I'm just a nobody who sees a lot of your posts and opinions and I like them. If you must go , good luck.
You don't know what you're talking about..............again.
Well don't go away mad on my account. I've naught but British blood in these veins here.
Eh I don't really care how you evaluate my posts. You're welcome.
I hope you will reconsider. Your insight is invaluable, and not just regarding British politics.
Sorry to see that blathering fools got to you. The idiots are quite vocal, but their postings are far more numerous than their actual numbers. They are representative of nothing other than the fact that in any gathering there are always a little deadweight.
We need voices like yours to overcome their prattle.
You undoubtedly have a point. Your posts have been some of the gems of Freerepublic. Unfortunately in some cases it's equivalent to pearls before swine. As a public forum, even though it's moderated, many responses are irrelevant, irrational and ill informed.
I apologize that some of those responses have lead you to believe that Britain and Tony Blair's support are not viewed as essential. Best wishes whatever your decision.
There is a goodly-sized contingent of FReepers who go out of their way to insult Canadian, British and any other non-American conservatives on this board. They are small-minded, provincial country bumpkins who should be politely ignored.
You'll be missed. A lot of rational, level-headed Freepers have left FR due to the new climate on this board.
Posters feed off of each other. If attacks go unchallenged, the tone gets coarser. If a few ask that things be toned down, it tends to tone them down, unless the subject is Elian or Terri.
Understand and thanks
Very sad to see you go Ivan. You've always been a constructive and interesting contributor here. The miscreants you mention are a plague on this house, I quite agree.
Just damn, Ivan. Now I'm mad too. I value the perspectives of a global freeper community. Your leaving makes us just a bit more provincial. Please reconsider. TexasRepublic
Please just let it drop. Please.
Dear dear Ivan, I am sorry if any hurt you. You have been the truest example of what the British are and HAVE been to us - a staunch and true Friend, Mother to all that is good in American Law.
I am so sad to see you go. Oddly enough, in my mind now (and for thousands of others on this board, you are symbolic of all that is great about Great Britain. My little son and I were watching the BBC's glorious special on "The Battle for Britain", and I thought how I was so proud to tell my little son that his father's ancestors were British. I thought of you and your dogged determination to face down all foes of Britain, be they on FreeRepublic or in the real world. I thought of you.
Please, do not go. For some of us here, it would be as if England itself fell...
"Too many posters nowadays are using flame wars in a devious manner - they will inflame the debate and then call in the mods to get the other side sanctioned. However, the mods are often smart enough to see through it. It is better, if you see a flame war starting, to call your own side to task. If the other side persists, then there is a reasonable beef to take to the moderators. But the deliberate flame wars need to stop."
You are exactly right. I've only been here a couple of years but I have noticed this change. Several people even admit to enjoying a "flame war" and deliberately try to inflame people, then run and tattle when the flaming starts. Also people who need to get in the last word and admit they do it just to make people mad.
The "lynch mob" mentality is a whole new discussion.
That's not what Sir Gawain or I are talking about. I am addressing a very simple subject that has nothing to do with given political positions. If you are in a debate and folks are getting more and more uncivil on your side, call them to task. That's it. I don't care if you think illegals should be deported or that we should have government-subsidized pitchers of frozen margaritas awaiting illegals when the cross the border. Try to keep your own side in line, and the tone will improve AND make the job of the moderators that much easier.
It's a futile effort when you have 100,000+ posters. Try herding cats for an easier task.
Friend, I just call 'em like I see 'em.
I have no beef whatsoever with Tony Blair and I sincerely hope that the U.S. and the U.K. will remain strong allies, but the next year or two is going to be quite telling. If the French voters pass the E.U. constitution and Britain allows itself to get absorbed in, and if Blair ends up getting bounced out for someone even further to the left, it's quite likely that our alliance will just drift apart. I sincerely hope that none of these things will happen, but patronizing me doesn't change simple basic facts that anyone can learn simply by reading and paying attention to what's going on.
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