Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
You'll be missed...
I've enjoyed your posts and I hate to see you go.
Your "country whose country's blood sacrifice should has put its character and reputation beyond the question of simple minded miscreants".
I wish you had been able to ignore them, but avoiding them may be the next best thng to do.
I must not have be spending enough time here, as I've not noticed that level of anti-British sentiment. Also, I hasten to point out the constant trickle of anti-American sentiment that flows from the U.K. We must suffer fools on both sides of the Atlantic, it seems.
I would *never* compare Britain with the likes of France, except to comment on the unfortunate situation of your having such a toxic environment just across the Channel.
Of course, not all in France are as bad as we tend to paint them. The time is coming (rapidly, I fear), when the good people of the West had better find a way to work together. We are Rome, and the Barbarians are flooding in.
It's important that we stay in touch, as we may well find ourselves sharing a foxhole someday.
Ah, nothing like improving the tone of the debate by calling the other poster a whiner - when I am responding to laments by people on this thread about the recent incivility on FR. Thanks for making my point.
Yes, My defenses of TB are mainly aimed at defending Britain. Most attacks you will see against him from the US side are directed against Britain in general, IMO. Most folk over here do not understand the internal workings of the Brits.
While there are many differing views in your country, I believe Mr. Blair's position re Iraq represented the majority view of Brits. I believe most Brits supported and continue to support the US. Hence, I see attacks against TB from this side of the pond as fairweather-friend type attacks on Britain as a whole... i.e., if Britain disagrees, in any facit, with the US, then somehow their whole support of the US re terrorism is to be called into question. TB is the lightning-rod for this type of thinking among some here.
I am very pro-British. Cheers.
Good luck, Godspeed.
Will miss you in forum.
Bzzzt, wrong. I've seen dirtboy do it on a number of occassions. I've never seen you do it though.
Ivan,
I have enjoyed your many posts and rational discussions on this forum. While I have often disagreed with the fools who occasionally show up here, I, like you, continue to try to introduce some level of knowledge and rational thought into their pea brains.
Above all, I hope that you will not depart thinking that the fools represent all Americans. We may disagree, from time to time, we Americans and Brits, but that occurs in the best of families and among the best of friends. Our hyperbole sometimes gets away from us and causes us to say things that, when the passion has died down, we realize we didn't mean.
The spats that we have seen on this forum between Americans and their British cousins, IMO, can largely be laid at the feet of successful MSM attacks on us all; portraying friends as enemies. Whatever occurs in your life, I wish you the best and hope that we'll see you back one day.
Best regards,
DustyMoment
I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer, The publican 'e up an' sez, "We serve no red-coats here." The girls be'ind the bar they laughed an' giggled fit to die, I outs into the street again an' to myself sez I: O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, go away"; But it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play, The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play, O it's "Thank you, Mister Atkins", when the band begins to play. I went into a theatre as sober as could be, They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me; They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls, But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls! For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, wait outside"; But it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide, The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide, O it's "Special train for Atkins" when the trooper's on the tide. Yes, makin' mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep Is cheaper than them uniforms, an' they're starvation cheap; An' hustlin' drunken soldiers when they're goin' large a bit Is five times better business than paradin' in full kit. Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, 'ow's yer soul?" But it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll, The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll, O it's "Thin red line of 'eroes" when the drums begin to roll. We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too, But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you; An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints, Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints; While it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Tommy, fall be'ind", But it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind, There's trouble in the wind, my boys, there's trouble in the wind, O it's "Please to walk in front, sir", when there's trouble in the wind. You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all: We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational. Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace. For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "Chuck him out, the brute!" But it's "Saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot; An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please; An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool -- you bet that Tommy sees!
Maybe one more, don't go will help sway you...don't go.
Some of us remember that our predecessors and your predecessors stood shoulder-to-shoulder against the black tide. The blood of both Britons and Americans flowed in the Channel. The Union Jack and Old Glory together flew over a shattered but liberated Europe. When the Iron Curtain fell, the British were our greatest allies. When the Wall fell, it was an American and an English victory. When the towers fell, we knew that of all the people in the world, yours would hold us closest in your hearts. In Afghanistan, in Iraq, we knew that our truest friends came from a small island with a mighty soul.
Thank you. You are our brothers.
I was so disheartened when I saw this thread. I don't know that we have ever actually corresponded one on one, but I have always looked forward to your insight, and have followed your postings. I can understand your frustrations, it has seemed lately that many FR postings have been made by downright unpleasant people with an agenda different from the agenda this forum was founded on. The majority of fair minded Americans are eternally grateful to England for their support. Unfortunately, a few Ugly Americans choose to spew hatred towards England, some because they think you do not support us enough, and others because they don't like the fact that Blair supported Bush in a war they don't believe in. I know you have many on your side of the Pond who react the same way to Bush. I hope that you can in time realize that the majority of us on this forum value your input, and hope you will reconsider. You have my best wishes for whatever path you choose, but selfishly I hope it leads back to Free Republic. God Speed!
Sorry to see you are thinking of leaving (although I do know how you feel I take breaks now and again for various reasons including this). I've appreciated your input and support for the British cause. I'm sure you'll be a web presence we'll all run into again!
At any rate, I now know how to evaluate your posts. Thank you for the explanation.
Sorry, but I will keep repeating my request for people to call those on their own side of the debate to task when they cross the line, because I think it is an important step to improving the tone of the forum. Apparently, you'd rather just call me a whiner for that - which is your perogative - just don't subsequently complain about the tone here if you're going to do that.
Plus, many of us have British roots going way, way back!!
Britain is NOT a socialist country.
Dead on. If someone wants fireworks, wait until the 4th...
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