Russia’s Putin Will Not Run for Third Term in 2008

Russian President Vladimir Putin once again ruled out running for re-election in 2008, RIA Novosti reports.

Meeting media executives at the Hanover industrial technology fair the president said he would not seek to change the country’s constitution. In line with Russian law “you cannot run for president three times in a row,” he explained.

Though it is not the first time Putin has denied speculation about this controversial question, political analysts say the president’s inner circle regards his re-election as one of the ways of keeping control of the country after the expiry of Putin’s second presidential term in 2008.

In theory, if the constitution was changed, the presidency would become ceremonial, turning Russia into a parliamentary republic with a prime minister — probably Putin — holding the reins of power.

Another possibility could be to shift much of the powers from the presidency to the prime minister, leaving Putin’s successor with a limited role — which could be achieved without amending the constitution, Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a political observer who specializes in the Russian elite, told Associated Press.

“The clan in power under Putin has to complete the redistribution of assets and safeguard their gains,” she commented. A new class of wealthy functionaries has arisen in the past few years as the state role in the economy has grown.

Putin himself pointed out that he could theoretically seek a third term at a later date. But he added: “True, I am not certain that I want to.”

In the opinion of the analyst Andrei Piontkovsky, Putin’s main concern is to ensure his successor will not harm his interests. “He is ready to leave his post but he wants guarantees of immunity,” the spin doctor concluded.

Give the guy a break.

Maybe he is what he says he is? Or am I naive?

But actions speak louder than words I think. Putin supported (Not just allowed) Afghanistan to happen. He blessed off on our presence in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and the Republic of Georgia (You better believe they gave their thumbs up before we went there). He actually endorsed Bush (What a weird turn in history) in his second term. He's not playing up the missile defense card anymore. US firms are doing business in Russia and they are abiding to all force treaties both conventional and nuclear. Example: START and CFE.

There are ALWAYS points of contention between nations. That’s why we have nations; To represent our interests which are not all the same. Russia is no longer the belligerent it once was.

I think over time the US and Russia will move closer yet. Despite all the things one can throw up against Putin (You can always find something), he seems to have been pragmatic in his approach to conflict between the US and Russia. In the time of his presidency the relationship between Russia and the rest of the world has become more stable, one of greater trust and less fear. I think that over time the old threat picture in Russia and the US/EU will subside. Economics will pave the way for this. However, Russia has some serious internal issues with corruption, crime, censorship of media, a huge age bubble (Population decline) and in some cases a failing infrastructure. If Russia wants sustained growth, it needs to fix itself internally, and that’s not something anyone can help them with.

My opinion.

Red6

"Give the guy a break."

Give a guy like this a break and it can be the last decision you ever get to make.

"Maybe he is what he says he is? Or am I naive?"

You are either naive or Communist, "Red."

From an article in the Wall Street Journal, page 1, Wednesday, February 23, 2005:

"Mr. Putin him self served more than 15 years in the KGB and later headed its successor, the FSB [actually, the KGB split onto 2 organizations, the FSB (international, like the CIA) and the SVR (national, like the FBI).] Since taking over the Kremlin in 2000, he has presided over an unprecedented influx of ex-KGB men into the upper echelons of power---men whose formative years were spent learning how to undermine the West's interests.

Prominent among the ex-KGB officials who now pace the Kremlin's corridors are Defense minister Sergei Ivanov, Interior Minister Rahid Nurgaliev, and FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, as well as the heads of Russia's arms-export, defense-procurement, and drug-enforcement agencies. A close Putin aide and former KGB man, Victor Ivano, serves on the board of flagship airline OAO Aeroflot. A favorite parlor game in Russia is to divine which other senior officials and businessmen have suspicious gaps in their resume that suggest a past with the intelligence services."

from Iran's Nuclear Option, Casemate, 2005, Al J. Venter, p. 207:

"A subsequent CIA report suggests that during the next five years Iran is more likely to develop intermediate-range ballistic missiles based on Russian technology before dveloping an ICBM, but that the same technology would be used. 'Iran could test such an IRBM before the end of that period,' it read. In the period 2006-2010, syas the document, Western strategists believe that Iran will in all likelihood test an IRBM. 'All assess that Iran could flight-test an ICBM that could deliver nuclear-sized payloads to many parts of the United States in the latter half of the next decade, again, using Russian technology acquired over the years,' says Langley. Some also think Iran is likely to test an ICBM---possibly an SLV without RV impact downrange---before 2010."

http://insider.washingtontimes.com/articles/normal.php?StoryID=20050228-122848-1442r
from Washington Times Insider, February 28, 2005:
Russia, Iran sign nuclear fuel deal
By Ali Akbar Dareini
ASSOCIATED PRESS
From the World section
BUSHEHR, Iran -- Iran and Russia, ignoring U.S. objections, signed a nuclear fuel agreement yesterday that is key to bringing Tehran's first reactor online by the middle of next year.
The long-delayed deal, signed at the heavily guarded Bushehr nuclear facility in southern Iran, dramatized President Bush's failure to persuade the Russians to curtail support for the Iranian nuclear program during his summit with Vladimir Putin last week in Slovakia.
Under the deal, Russia will provide nuclear fuel to Iran, then take back the spent fuel, a step meant to ensure it cannot be diverted into a weapons program. Iran also has agreed to allow the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to monitor Bushehr and the fuel deliveries.
Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh and Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency chief Alexander Rumyantsev signed the agreement after touring the $800 million complex.
"Today, a very important development occurred, and that was the protocol on returning nuclear fuel, which we signed together. In the next few weeks, many Russian technicians will arrive in Bushehr" to finish the plant, Mr. Rumyantsev said.
The officials refused to discuss the details of shipping the nuclear fuel to Iran and the spent fuel back to Russia, but insisted the agreement conforms to international nuclear regulations.
"Iran observes all the regulations on the prohibition of the spread of nuclear weapons," Mr. Rumyantsev said.
The White House declined comment, as did the State Department.
Washington accuses Tehran of covertly trying to build a nuclear bomb, which Iran denies. Last week's summit between Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin in Bratislava, Slovakia, had touched on American concerns over Russian support for Iran's nuclear program.

Mr. Putin has said he is sure Iran's intentions are merely to generate energy, not create weapons, and that Russian cooperation with Tehran would continue.
Although Russia agreed to provide the fuel needed to run the Bushehr plant, it wanted the spent fuel back to prevent any possibility Tehran would use it to extract plutonium, which could be used to make an atomic bomb. Experts have estimated the plant could produce enough plutonium for 30 rudimentary atomic bombs per year.
Mr. Aghazadeh, who is the Iranian nuclear agency chief, said more experts and technicians would complete work on installation and assembly operations over the next 10 months.
"Three months after that, there will be a test of the power plant, and within six months after that, the 1,000-megawatt nuclear power plant will produce electricity," he said.
Russia will deliver the fuel when the Bushehr plant "is ready for work and loading," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko told the Interfax news agency yesterday.
The Bushehr plant, accessible only by a private road, overlooks the Persian Gulf, and its cream-colored dome is visible miles away. Soldiers maintain a 24-hour watch on roads leading up to the plant, manning anti-aircraft guns and supported by radar stations.
Iranian efforts to enrich uranium so it can produce enough of its own fuel to generate power have been a bigger concern in the international community than buying fuel from abroad because the enrichment process can be taken further to be used for warheads.
Britain, France and Germany are trying to secure an Iranian commitment to scrap enrichment plans in exchange for economic aid, technical support and backing for Tehran's efforts to join mainstream international organizations.
Iran has suspended enrichment-related activities during the talks with the Europeans, which both sides have said were difficult, but insists the freeze will be brief.
Mr. Bush has expressed support for the European efforts. But documents circulated among IAEA board members in Vienna, Austria, ahead of a board meeting today indicated Washington would try to increase pressure on Tehran by the next agency board meeting in June should the European talks fail.

OK, ask yourself this, what START, CFE or “ANY OTHER” treaty have they violated under Putin?

http://www.dtra.mil/press_resources/fact_sheets/index.cfm

We have official government agencies that do NOTHING other than look for discrepancies and cheating within these treaties.

They abide to what they say they will. Do they do research and build new weapons? Sure, as we do too. Do they sell their weapons? Sure, as we do too. Have they threatened to nuke you as they once did? No.

Just throwing names and accusations around is neither accurate, rational nor will it bring anything. George H. Bush was head of the CIA. But you’re worried that Putin was in the KGB? Here’s a hint, most people don’t pop up on the political radar screen out of a vacuum. George W. Bush was considered a political lightweight when he ran the first time and he was a governor (TX) and USAF NG officer (Fighter pilot).

Russia is not actively working against us as they did in the past. Many of our efforts in the former Soviet republics would NOT be possible without Russian support. RUSSIAN helicopters in part flew in the first US CIA operators into Afghanistan. Even there we would not be today (Or only with great difficulty and much higher losses) if they wanted to work against us.

We delivered Stingers to the Afghan fighters in the 80s to fight the Soviets. It was a war between the two of us. In Vietnam, they screwed with us and ensured MIG21, SA2, SA6 and RPGs got there with advisors to even show them how to fight us. Today, Russia is working WITH US in Afghanistan. While not helping us in Iraq, they also don’t intentionally work against us on a tactical level on the ground. If they wanted too, they could and they would be effective. But they CHOOOOOSE not to, as we don’t screw with them. On a Strategic level in the war on terror, we work together since we are both plagued by the same evil out there.

There is a complete lack of trust between us. They distrust us more than we them. They are to this day scared by Napoleon, World War I, and World War II. They were affected in ways by WWII that we were not. They are the ones that see US forces all along their boarders, NATO expansion, the fall of their system (Warsaw pact and economically), the diminishing status/power/influence of their former Republic and their former Soviet Republics are becoming members of NATO or aligning themselves with the EU (Ukraine) in part. Put it in perspective from their view.

While our intentions are not bad, evil or imperialistic, (We are NOTHING like what we are made out to be even in our own liberal media), it’s very easy to fear us especially when in context of their history of being invaded three times within a little more of a millennium.

http://www4.army.mil/ocpa/read.php?story_id_key=7079

http://www.defenselink.mil/transformation/articles/2005-03/ta032805a.html

http://www.7atc.army.mil/news/maslov.htm

For years now, US and Russian forces have been conducting more and more exchanges and even training. This just recently happened and got little MSM coverage but was a major event. The Russians are reciprocating and we are going to play with their stuff while we are their guests.

The Russians are our competition in the defense market. They have conflicting goals in many areas, but they are no longer the threat they once were. They themselves are realizing that it it’s not in their best interest to work against us. That does not mean that they have to say “Yes/Da” to everything we utter. But the games of the Cold War (Which really wasn’t cold) are near over. We are NOT allies, we are NOT even friends, but we are NOT the enemies of past. Even if they wanted to, they are not in the position today to pull something big off. Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Uzbekistan, Khuzestan, Kyrgyzstan…. Are not going to volunteer and jump on some Soviet World quest tour tomorrow. Poland hates their guts and Hungary too. The DDR is part of Germany, Romania likes Americans, so does Bulgaria…… The Russian might is not there. They are themselves threatened by China who is rapidly upgrading and modernizing.

As to Russian military power. Their pilots hardly fly, their tanks don’t run, their MAIN battle tank is a T72 (Not a T80, 90 or Black Eagle or any other things you see on Vladimirs tank/gun/fighter web page). Their subs are rusting and occasionally sink. Their troops are underpaid (If at all), their military has massive corruption and is still conscripted (In part poorly trained). They have drug issues. Their main rifle is the AK47. They are not the power they once were. They have not been modernizing at the pace of past, and are today MAYBE ½ the power they once were (From all the split away republics), that’s not counting the members of the Warsaw pact they lost. They actually produce a lot of high tech weaponry. But they can’t afford it for their own forces. What they export to some in the Middle East is often better than what they themselves can afford.

Real world is- they took massive looses (excess of 5,000 men) in each Chechen war (1994/99). That’s against an enemy a fractionticimal (Very very small) compared to what we had to deal with in Iraq. For all practical purposes, they LOST the first Chechen war of 1994. Look at what the Chechens had to fight with, how big Chechnya is, its population, size of cities and where it is in relationship to Russia (Bordering). They still don’t have that area under control and they invaded again in 1999 and have been there ever since.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/fmsopubs/issues/hepatiti/hepatiti.htm

http://www.treefort.org/~cbdoten/bulls/122799a.shtml

While there is good reason to not trust them, as they don’t trust us. I hardly think they are scheming to invade the US in a Red Dawn style. Again Vladimirs homepage will tell you some “wishful thinking” but reality is that they are regionally falling behind. They are NO strategic power anymore other than they can nuke you. But they can’t take and hold ground somewhere. Putin is doing what he can to slow and reverse the decay of Russian military power. Don’t view it as a revitalization of former Soviet aspirations, but rather a desperate attempt to not loose it completely in the defense sector and be a regional military midget with a lot of land. Russia is a nuclear threat (potential) and a threat in that they do sell on occasion high tech weaponry to dubious nations or could play games against us this way. However, reality is that they DO uphold the treaties; they don’t intentionally play against us today and we don’t against them. While no buddies, we also don’t want to go behind the house. No one will benefit from such stupidity and we both know it.

Red6

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