A RUSSIAN AGENT AT THE RIGHT HAND OF BIN LADEN?

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | Jamuary 15, 2004 | Evgenii Novikov

[TapTheSource]

TERRORISM MONITOR

Volume 2 Issue 1 (January 15, 2004)

A RUSSIAN AGENT AT THE RIGHT HAND OF BIN LADEN?

By Evgenii Novikov

The Arabic television channel Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape on December 19, 2003, that was said to be from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the right hand man of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In it, Zawahiri claimed that his group was chasing Americans everywhere, including in the United States. This claim helped raise the terror threat level.

But where is Zawahiri, whose head now carries a price of US$25 million? Recent media reports have said that he is hiding in Iran, though Iranian authorities deny this. Yet it could be that Russian intelligence knows exactly where he is and may even have regular contact with the elusive Egyptian.

Zawahiri as Prisoner

There are many accounts of Ayman al-Zawahiri published in the press. These stories cover Zawahiri's childhood and his relatives, his study of medicine, his connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, his involvement in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, his close relations with Osama bin Laden, and his role in major terrorist attacks against the United States. But there are few authors who mention that Zawahiri spent half a year in close contact with representatives of Russian intelligence while in their custody.

Significantly, these contacts led to a change in Zawahiri's political orientation. Long talks with Russian intelligence officers "forced a critical change in his lethal planning. ...America, not Egypt, became the target... Freed from Russian jail in May 1997, Dr. Zawahri found refuge in Afghanistan, yoking his fortunes to Mr. bin Laden. [Zawahiri's group] Egyptian Jihad, previously devoted to the narrow purpose of toppling secular rule in Egypt, became instead the biggest component of al Qaeda and a major agent of a global war against America. Dr. Zawahri became Mr. bin Laden's closest confidant and talent scout." [1]

The story of Zawahiri's Russian experience begins on December 1, 1996, when he was traveling under the alias "Mr. Amin" along with two of his officers--Ahmad Salama Mabruk, who ran Egyptian Jihad's cell in Azerbaijan under the cover of a trading firm called Bavari-C, and Mahmud Hisham al-Hennawi, a militant widely traveled in Asia. The group was accompanied by a Chechen guide. They were trying to enter Russia between the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus Mountains in an effort to discover whether Chechnya could become a base for training militants. It was here that the group was arrested by Russian police for a lack of visas. They were soon handed over to the Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB.

When Zawahiri's computer was later discovered in Afghanistan by two journalists, it provided insight into Zawahiri's side of the story. In short, it goes as follows:

The Russians failed to: 1) find out Zawahiri's real identity and the goals of his visit to Chechnya; 2) read the Arabic texts in his laptop, which would have revealed the nature of his activities; and 3) read the coded messages that he sent from custody to his friends.

Zawahiri's Version Debunked

Yet based on my own twenty years' experience with Russian intelligence people involved in Arab affairs, these claims simply do not ring true. The Soviet KGB had good--albeit indirect--connections with Islamic fundamentalists, including the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Jihad. The curriculum of Arab terrorists who studied at Moscow International's Lenin School placed special emphasis on cooperation between Marxists and Islamists. Soviet instructors would encourage Arab terrorists to consider the Muslim Brothers and other Islamic extremists as "allies in class struggle."

Good contacts between the KGB and Islamic fundamentalists existed at the time of the Egyptian Jihad's 1981 assassination of Anwar Sadat, after which Zawahiri was jailed by Egyptian authorities. Since the KGB followed these events very closely and may have even been indirectly involved in the plot, the KGB would have put Zawahiri's name into its records at that time. Therefore, when Zawahiri crossed the KGB's path again, that organization likely would have soon discovered his real identity.

Additionally, local Islamic organizations flocked to Zawahiri's aid during his detention and trial in such large numbers that the Russians and even Zawahiri's own lawyer were puzzled by the outpouring. [2] This would have been another tip-off to the authorities that they had more than just a mere merchant (Zawahiri's reported claim) in custody. Also, the fact that he was arrested along with a Chechen should have raised additional suspicions.

Perhaps most difficult to believe from Zawahiri's version is that his captors would not have read the Arabic information contained within his laptop computer. Russian intelligence has probably the best Arabists in the world. One of them--Dr. Evgeny Primakov--headed the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service from December 1991 until January 1996 and made a considerable efforts to bring many talented Arabists into this service. These individuals would have been able not only to read Zawahiri's Arabic text, but also to decode his encrypted messages without any problem.

Thus, with Zawahiri's true identity and purpose uncovered by the Russians, these authorities would have been faced with several options. One would have been deportation to either Egypt or the United States, with gratitude from those governments for Russian President Yeltsin, burnishing his image as a fighter against terrorism. But apparently the Russians decided not to do this, believing perhaps that their national interest was better served by another alternative.

One should bear in mind that at the time of Zawahiri's capture, Chechnya was enjoying a period of actual independence from Moscow. The Kremlin was having great difficulty finding "agents of influence" among the Chechen people. At the same time, Moscow knew that representatives of al Qaeda and other foreign Islamic fundamentalists were present in Chechnya and exercised strong influence on the Chechen leaders, especially on the military commanders. It would have been logical, therefore, for the Russians to try to persuade Zawahiri to cooperate with them in directing the activities of Arabs in Chechnya, in getting information about the plans and activities of Chechen leaders, and in influencing the Chechen leadership.

It may not have been too difficult for Russian officers to persuade Zawahiri to go along with such a plan. The prisoner would have been very frightened by the prospect of being deported to Egypt or remaining jailed in Russia. Furthermore, methods of torture during interrogation used by KGB officers would have truly almost scared Zawahiri to death. Execution very likely was just one threat.

Once made aware that the KGB knew of his true identity, Zawahiri would have realized that it would be useless to lie further. At a minimum, Zawahiri would have had to agree to cooperation with Russian intelligence to save his life and to buy his freedom. It is possible that the Russians also offered some form of assistance to Zawahiri and al Qaeda. This could have been in the form of explosive technology or other weaponry.

It is notable that Taliban and al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan received regular re-supplies of Russian arms. The man responsible for these deliveries was Victor Anatolievich Bout, the son of a top KGB officer. His father's connections helped establish Bout in the arms trade, which is linked to the Russian government and particularly to its intelligence services. Bout and his family currently reside in the United Arab Emirates. [3]

It is also not difficult to imagine that the Russians managed to get some information from Zawahiri about his colleagues that could have been used to blackmail him if he tried to avoid cooperation after his release. With an agreement reached between Zawahiri and the Russians, the authorities would have taken steps to make the Egyptian look "clean" to his Arab comrades and the Chechens. It would not have been difficult for them to stage Zawahiri's trial, at which the judge gave him only a six months' sentence, much of which he had already served.

A final note: Arabs are still very active among the Chechen militants today, and yet the Russians appear to turn a blind eye toward their infiltration and do not hunt them particularly. Even the most influential among the Arabs, Khattab, may well have been killed by his own people. Arabs have also never been listed as POWs. Perhaps the Russian forces have an order to kill Arabs on the spot: Nobody wants them to reveal unwanted information during interrogations. Thus left alone, the Arabs exercise significant influence over the activities of Chechen commanders according to orders from Zawahiri. Presumably they do so without understanding that they could well be the Trojan horses who actually execute the Kremlin's orders. For example, the Arabs apparently do not encourage Chechen militants to direct any attacks against Russian leaders in Moscow. This could be accomplished simply by refusing to pay for such operations.

In contrast, the Arabs do seem to encourage the taking of hostages from among the common people, as in the Moscow youth club Nord-Ost incident, thus making it easier for the Kremlin to stoke public anger against "Chechen terrorists." This in turn helps Vladimir Putin garner popular support for his own authoritarian actions as well as those of his former KGB colleagues who now occupy 65 percent of top governmental positions. Dr. Zawahiri may thus be the queen in the Kremlin's chess game not only in Chechnya, but also in Russia's power struggle at the highest levels. If so, it is not likely that the Russians would surrender him merely to help win the global war on terror.

Dr. Novikov is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

Notes:

1. "Saga of Dr. Zawahri Sheds Light On the Roots of al Qaeda Terror;" Andrew Higgins and Alan Cullison; The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2002. 2. Ibid. 3. "International Business of Russian Mafia," Sueddeutsche Zeitung, February 1, 2001.

[GOPJ]

Please add me to your ping list.

[Atlantic Friend]

"Thanks! Altough Im sure the usual suspects will arrive with bells on in fairly sort order."

You mean the Putin fan club ?

[Atlantic Friend]

"Article speaks for itself--TTS"

Indeed. Yet the motto still is "Ignore Germany, punish France, forgive Russia".

[MeekOneGOP]

bump!

[SevenMinusOne]

==Enjoyable read

Thanks. Did you happen to check out post #48 in conjunction with the oriinal post???

Yes, I did read your post #48 - Where you speculate about Zawahiri and a prearranged KGB meeting -

I simply think that is spook-type thinking - Al Zawahiri is not being held or (hidden) by the KGB - He is extremely likely to be ekking out a survival in the Pak border region.

The old KGB is not in anyway shape or form using Al Qeade as a tool for regaining power, etc, etc, etc -

Nah, while enjoyable to read / hear these type theories, I'm not buying them -

[Tommyjo]

They are called one-time pads. Specific pages of books, magazines or articles are used and if you don't know which book and the specific page an intercepting party will not be able to break it.

[indcons]

Thanks a lot for the ping. Your posting provides an interesting perspective that I have missed so far in articles on Russia/Chechenya.

[TapTheSource]

==Please add me to your ping list.

Done!

[TapTheSource]

==Yes, I did read your post #48 - Where you speculate about Zawahiri and a prearranged KGB meeting -

Oops, I referred you to the wrong post. I meant post #45. Sorry about that--TTS

[Kenny Bunk]

The Great Game continues..we of course, being on the field subbing for the British Empire. Russian line-up, Afghans, various types of jihadists, Turks, Kurds, etc. still in play.

[G8 Diplomat]

from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri

DOCTOR Ayman al-Zawahiri?? That cave-dwelling nut has a degree? I found it hard to believe that Ahmadinejad has a doctorate in engineering (nuclear, perhaps?), but Ayman al-Zawahiri??

Anyway...it comes as no surprise that a Russki is working with OBL. They're arming Iran with junk, of course they'd help with al-Qaida.

[Tainan]

Well said and nicely backgrounded. Alas, it seems that ‘Tap The Source’ has been tapped out as it were.

And unfortunately all too common occurrence on Free Republic.

[piasa]

1974 : (EGYPT : ZAWHIRI OBTAINS MEDICAL DEGREE) He obtained his degree in 1974 and practiced medicine for several years.
His profession, however, was not his calling. By the late 1970s, he was back full-time in the Islamist revolution business agitating against the Egypt-Israel peace treaty (concluded in 1979). -——— “Islamism, fascism and terrorism (Part 4),” By Marc Erikson, Asia Times, 5 December 2002

[AmericanVictory]

Exposes the complete failure of leadership in letting them share the oil weapon.

[piasa]

1994 early : (ZAWAHIRI HQ ESTABLISHED IN SWITZERLAND) Dressed in Western-style clothing with his beard shaved, the university-educated Zawahiri had long worked in Europe, organizing an elite network specifically designed for “future terror operations” against the United States. Bodansky alleges that Zawahiri established his operational headquarters in Geneva Switzerland in early 1994. ———— “Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Russian Adventure,” BY J. R. Nyquist, Financial Sense, July 16, 2002
********
Records show that Youssef M. Nada is, with [neonazi Ahmed] Huber, a board member of Nada Management. An Egyptian expatriate, Nada is said by the government investigator to be central to the Iraq/al-Qaeda connection and “a known associate of Saddam Hussein and Ayman al-Zawahiri,” al-Qaeda’s second in command. The government investigator tells Insight that Nada met with Saddam and had a “business” relationship with the former Iraqi dictator. Nada’s relationship with al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, is reportedly through the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a terrorist organization founded by al-Zawahiri, according to the government investigator. ——— “The Link between Iraq and Al Qaida,” by Scott Wheeler, Insight Magazine , Sept 2003, Posted on 09/19/2004 10:14:43 PM PDT by Big Jake

NOVEMBER 13, 2001 : (WMD : ANTHRAX INVESTIGATION : KABUL, AFGHANISTAN : DR. AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI’S HOUSE IS RAIDED; SAMPLES TEST POSITIVE FOR ANTHRAX) Northern Alliance soldiers raided his house in Kabul on November 13 and a senior American intelligence official tells Newsweek that it resembled the lair of a mad scientist. Soldiers found grenades, blasting caps, electronic components and “various solid and liquid substances,” including white crystals and extremely fine, silvery powders in jars and plastic bags, and mysterious liquids in shampoo bottles labeled “special medicine.” American intelligence later collected samples from Northern Alliance colleagues and conducted chemical and biological tests. One of the samples turned up a “positive indicator” for Bacillus Anthracis, or anthrax. All of the samples are being retested, the source tells Newsweek.-——— “A U.S.-Based Al Qaeda ‘Sleeper Cell’ Was Poised to Launch a Post-Sept. 11 Attack on a Major Washington Target; Would-Be Terrorists Went Underground or Fled U.S. ,” Newsweek, December 9, 2001

DECEMBER 2006 : (ZAWAHIRI TAPE - MESSAGE TO THE DEMOCRATS) Al Qaeda has sent a message to leaders of the Democratic party that credit for the defeat of congressional Republicans belongs to the terrorists. In a portion of the tape from al Qaeda No. 2 man, Ayman al Zawahri, made available only today, Zawahri says he has two messages for American Democrats.
“The first is that you aren’t the ones who won the midterm elections, nor are the Republicans the ones who lost. Rather, the Mujahideen — the Muslim Ummah’s vanguard in Afghanistan and Iraq — are the ones who won, and the American forces and their Crusader allies are the ones who lost,” Zawahri said, according to a full transcript obtained by ABC News.
Zawahri calls on the Democrats to negotiate with him and Osama bin Laden, not others in the Islamic world who Zawahri says cannot help. “And if you don’t refrain from the foolish American policy of backing Israel, occupying the lands of Islam and stealing the treasures of the Muslims, then await the same fate,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...—————————Al Qaeda Sends a Message to Democrats
ABC News ^ Brian Ross and Hoda Osman Report: Posted on 12/22/2006 11:55:34 AM PST by bnelson44

[kalee]

bttt

[happinesswithoutpeace]

will read later. thanks :/

[piasa]

Dr. Novikov is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation

Mr [Michael] Scheuer, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington... ------7/7 ‘mastermind’ is seized in Iraq The Times (U.K.) ^ | 04/28/07 | ean O’Neill, Tim Reid and Michael Evans

Now there's a familiar character.

[G8 Diplomat]

He shoulda stayed in medicine. Assad was in med school too, but when his brother died he succeded his father as president of Syria.

[JasonC]

But alas for this pleasant "line up all the black hats" theory, it is all the purest speculation and wind. Its centerpiece, that they must have read all his documents because there are people in Russia who know Arabic, is simply ludicrous. Of course they have intel operatives who know Arabic. But did they assign a high priority to 3 random interlopers crossing the border from Azerbaijan without papers? Saying they must have is like saying anyone who passed through US customs must have been waterboarded to find all their secrets, and could only have continued activities approved by the government, so 9-11 must have been an inside job. Just silly. Governments are incompetent distributed entities, not unitary actors with the full capability of every expert on every subject at all times. There is precious little reason for the man to lie to his own laptop, either. Too thin, too thin.