Posted on 11/29/2004 9:36:14 PM PST by RWR8189
Spitzer Leads Pataki, 44% to 41% in ’06 Match-up; Pataki Lags on Job Approval, State Direction; Schumer, Giuliani Most Popular New York Politicians, New Zogby Poll Reveals
Democratic Attorney General Eliot Spitzer leads Republican Governor George Pataki by three points in a potential 2006 gubernatorial match-up, a new Zogby New York poll reveals. The survey also found a majority of New Yorkers disapproving of Governor Pataki’s performance on the job and saying the state was heading the wrong direction. The survey of 613 New York likely voters was conducted Tuesday through Wednesday (November 16 to 17, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The poll also found Senator Chuck Schumer, fresh off his re-election win, the state’s most popular Democrat, with 71% holding a favorable opinion of him, while former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was its most popular Republican, receiving a 69% net favorable rating.
“These numbers are really an alarming sign for the incumbent,” pollster John Zogby said. “Pataki’s problem is consistent underperformance with key groups: He leads Spitzer by a single point in the Republican-heavy upstate, but trails by 27 points in New York City. He’s only pulling 72% support from his fellow Republicans, and only two-in-three conservatives are backing him. And even though he leads Spitzer among Catholics and Protestants, he trails Spitzer dramatically among Jews and other non-Christians. It’s two years out, but I’d say Pataki’s in a tough spot.”
Zogby went on to note that the poll did contain some heartening news for Pataki: “The Governor really has tried to make inroads with union households—which there are a lot of in New York—and it seems to be paying off; he only trails Spitzer by four points with what should be a loyal Democratic constituency. And, he’s polling 49% in the suburbs—a key area in New York. He needs to do better to win a fourth term, but this race seems to be shaping up to be a real battle.”
The survey also found Giuliani would easily win against Spitzer, leading him 52% to 36% statewide, and dominating him in the upstate. Giuliani, however, trails Mr. Spitzer in his own New York City base.
“Giuliani is the real star of the New York GOP,” Zogby said. “While he was term-limited as New York City mayor, he is certainly still politically viable. Were Pataki to retire after three terms, he’s probably the Republicans’ best bet to hold onto the state’s executive branch.”
The survey also rated New York’s top politicians from both parties in terms of voters’ overall opinion (see table below):
|
|
Favorability Rating (%) |
|
|
Politician (Party) |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
|
Chuck Schumer (D) |
71 |
19 |
|
Rudolph Giuliani (R) |
69 |
26 |
|
George Pataki (R) |
59 |
37 |
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) |
58 |
36 |
|
Eliot Spitzer (D) |
56 |
19 |
Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton scored similar favorable and unfavorable numbers to Governor Pataki, being rated as favorable by 58% and unfavorable by 36%. Voters in all regions of the state gave her a net favorable rating, though New York City provides her a political base with a 72% favorable rating. Both men and women rated her favorably, although her performance among women was stronger. She also received higher marks among minority voters than among whites.
“The next couple of years in New York politics should be really interesting,” Zogby noted. “The most popular candidates in the Republican and Democratic field are currently out of the running. Should Giuliani enter the fray—or Schumer reverse his decision to concentrate on his job as New York’s senior senator—everything changes. And of course, there’s the Hillary factor.”
Zogby International conducted interviews of 613 likely voters chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from 11/16/04 through 11/17/04. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
I'm surprised Zogby is still in business, who would actually pay to sponsor his poll?
(arab terrorist) zogby's agenda is not over... never.
If SPITZER wins in 2006, the next DEMOCRAT nominee will be from NEW-YORK. Guess who? (Hint: it's not going to be Hitlery Bin-Rotten)
What a total waste of time and money. Any poll two years out will have an accuracy rate of zero.
If the guy is wrong on the day of the election, what is he 2yrs. prior?
I'm surprised Freepers are still posting his crap to begin with.
They are using Kerry's campaign money...
As a conservative, I'd love to see Pataki lose.
Too bad Zogby has him losing, otherwise I would have thought he'd lose.
You are irrelevant. If you were any more irrelevant, you'd be inane. Hell, if I was half as irrelevant as you, I'd be irrelevant.
So please shut the hell up and stick this asinine nonsense in the ash heap already. Sheesh!
Sincerely,
Joe American
"Now fix me a chicken pot pie, b*tch."
IMO, Pataki is vulnerable.
Or, that was my opinion.
Since Zogby is now stating Pataki is vulnerable, I may have to re-consider that conventional wisdom in favor of Pataki.
If the GOP puts a REAL Republican up it might boost their chances of winning.
He call the swing states for bush yet?
Fear not. The only way anyone even *wants* to poll something this far ahead of an election is to make someone appear a credible candidate. Wouldn't surprise me if Spitzer paid for the poll.
While Zogspit's rep is somewhat in tatters (so take his numbers with a grain of salt), what the numbers really represent are 1) Blue state backlash against Bush's victory and 2) People have had six years or so to come up with reasons they aren't satisfied with Pataki as the figurehead of state government. The GOP has many many months to reshape the debate.
What really is eye-opening is the poor numbers Hillary gets in her own very liberal state. Does that look like numbers to base a run for president on? She better worry about '06 before she thinks about '08, particularly if Rudy becomes her challenger (which I hope he does).
Who is this Zogby character?
I do not particularly believe any polls to begin with. Now we are polling for an election 2 years away?
This is a waste of time.
Who is Zogby?
The most consistently wrong pollster in the business. Also a Democrat shill. He should've been discredited after 2002, but FReepers still post his crap for some inane reason.
Can we please lay off the polls at least until January 20? Come on, FR was poll hell the past 18 months.
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