Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EVAL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182 1,179,187 N/A 42,417 56.8% 41.7% 15 HI 247,879 244,345 N/A 12,621 49.1% 48.4% 4 ID 362,351 166,987 N/A 16,371 66.4% 30.6% 4 IL 2,323,137 2,833,602 N/A 52,088 44.6% 54.4% 21 IN 1,540,899 1,103,327 N/A 40,267 57.4% 41.1% 11 IA 840,978 807,271 20,224 16,853 49.9% 47.9% 7 KS 749,881 481,248 22,917 19,097 58.9% 37.8% 6 KY 1,086,136 742,069 16,738 14,879 58.4% 39.9% 8 LA 1,117,209 887,256 14,245 16,280 54.9% 43.6% 9 ME 364,288 393,337 19,628 7,851 46.4% 50.1% 1 3 MD 990,427 1,261,588 27,576 18,384 43.1% 54.9% 10 MA 1,136,961 1,780,242 N/A 74,800 38.0% 59.5% 12 MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17 MN 1,343,268 1,323,920 55,279 41,459 48.6% 47.9% 10 MS 693,712 470,733 7,079 8,258 58.8% 39.9% 6 MO 1,394,513 1,270,676 N/A 26,921 51.8% 47.2% 11 MT 313,797 184,004 13,031 10,425 60.2% 35.3% 3 NE 524,723 278,425 12,356 8,237 63.7% 33.8% 5 NV 405,026 367,773 11,889 7,926 51.1% 46.4% 5 NH 302,590 308,228 9,397 6,265 48.3% 49.2% 4 NJ 1,584,417 1,751,378 44,296 27,259 46.5% 51.4% 15 NM 397,722 367,128 11,767 7,845 50.7% 46.8% 5 NY 3,072,429 4,198,490 111,860 74,574 41.2% 56.3% 31 NC 1,860,069 1,575,506 N/A 34,703 53.6% 45.4% 15 ND 211,063 119,914 6,931 8,664 60.9% 34.6% 3 OH 2,904,354 2,743,956 N/A 80,199 50.7% 47.9% 20 OK 869,148 512,002 N/A 13,951 62.3% 36.7% 7 OR 800,537 854,582 N/A 33,778 47.4% 50.6% 7 PA 2,636,463 2,679,419 N/A 53,696 49.1% 49.9% 21 RI 209,236 307,165 13,378 5,351 39.1% 57.4% 4 SC 958,439 660,879 13,152 11,508 58.3% 40.2% 8 SD 217,057 147,183 4,460 2,973 58.4% 39.6% 3 TN 1,327,809 1,004,126 16,539 14,176 56.2% 42.5% 11 TX 4,569,221 2,822,166 N/A 74,660 61.2% 37.8% 34 UT 614,659 255,056 18,025 13,519 68.2% 28.3% 5 VT 135,032 174,215 9,715 4,857 41.7% 53.8% 3 VA 1,693,700 1,481,988 N/A 32,078 52.8% 46.2% 13 WA 1,258,821 1,399,302 41,318 55,091 45.7% 50.8% 11 WV 394,177 342,568 6,732 4,488 52.7% 45.8% 5 WI 1,500,290 1,431,138 45,099 30,066 49.9% 47.6% 10 WY 129,249 67,079 3,068 5,113 63.2% 32.8% 3TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227
50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%
You can dream about it.
The Washington Fredskins lost their last home game
before the pres election and in so doing, that seals
Bushman's fate. Look to be singing "Hail to the
Chief" to JFnK.
Every cloud has a silver lining. At least we
don't have to face Hitlery until 2012 if ever.
MV
Worst case/Best case, using margins of 1.1% or less, results in values of 297/353.
In the Worst case, Bush wins...with some room to spare.
Best case...it's an EC landslide.
All in all, the CAMEC projections look reasonable and supportable. We'll know just how "reasonable and supportable" by Wednesday morning.
Well if'n it wuz dun on a kumputer den it must be tru........
Global warming was proved with computer analysis too.....
Josh, I really like your style and I think you may have this election done within the MOE.
That being said: if the great Zog, Ras et. all go belly up Tuesday and you are proven right, I would like to invest heavily in CAMEC!
Not often that I get "ground floor" opportunities here in Hawaii.
That's what I'm thinking. And NH brings it to 360. No way Bush will get there unless its really a blowout, so I'll happily settle for 311.
I've found cross-overs to be about even, slightly leaning Bush, but almost deadheat. (More Gore voters voting for Bush than Bush voters voting for Gore), About 54-46 in Bush's favor, but it varied from state to state (higher in New York, New Jersey, California[arnie effect]).
There are also a decent number of "dormant" voters. People who've voted in the past, but neither in 1996 or 2000, that will be voting for Bush. There is a clear lean towards Bush in this category, around 60-40.
New registers are breaking about even.. varying from state to state.
We still have a chance at redemption on Tuesday...otherwise, I fear that us PA Freepers will be banished and only permitted to post in our own forum, and then, we will only be able to discuss Snarlin' Arlen, and PHast Eddie Rendell. Oh the humanity...
Sure... that was the pre 9/11 world. I don't think a ball game decides a weighty matter like the Presidency and I'm not one to attach undue importance to superstitions. :)
Rumor is kerry wants her to be a Supreme and Bill will run the UN.
Rumor is kerry wants her to be a Supreme and Bill will run the UN.
Thank you. I've been very curious about the number of cross-over for Bush.
How did it do backtested against the 2000 race?
Smart little bugger ain't he?
Yep. It goes without saying you and PAMom will have to watch out for Fast Eddie's steals. Keep the champagne on ice until you know for sure the Keystone State turns Red.
FWIW, the President will be in Pennsylvania tomorrow night. I turned down free tickets to see him because I need to make sure my work is caught up so Mrs. Vigilaneman and I can work election day. Please pray for PA. The President can win without us, but a victory here would help the nation flush the johns early on election night.
Yeah I think its a very realistic projection of the state by state plays. It puts the Big Boys in the polling world to shame.
Forget the 'Skins...The Cowboy wins.'
Well, Brian Baldinger says that's the way it is
and you cannot refute it!
Even Chris Berman has been harping it all night
on ESPN.
On the fun side, the Skins did score a go-ahead
TD w/ 2:30 left in the game but the the ref called
a motion penalty (there was no motion!! It was BS).
I have been in DC for 20 yrs and Fredskin fan
since 73 and today was the first time I heard
of this indicator.
Bush's goose is cooked. Berman & Bladinger cannot be
wrong.
MV
"How is it possible Gallup could have Mr Bush up by 8 in FL just 6 days ago while today they say he is down by 3?? I just don't believe it. Gallup's national poll also shows Bush way ahead among men while the Fox poll says he is trailing. Makes me think none of these things is accurate."
By definition someone is wrong. I was just hoping at the end at least Ohio and Florida would be looking good in all the polls. We'll see.
Good luck on your prediction
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