How did it do backtested against the 2000 race?
I've molded the current formula up against the last two elections. The only difference from the actual 2000 results, is New Mexico and Wisconsin.. This current formula had Bush narrowly (by less than 1 percent) winning both of those two states (where he narrowly lost them).
I also had him with slightly bigger leads in a few other states (Florida being one).
Nader's support collapsing on election day may have caused it, but there was also a slight underperformance of the GOP turnout.
All indications are there that GOP Turnout is going to be stronger this year.