Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	49
% JOHN KERRY	49
% RALPH NADER	1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004 Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

[puroresu]

I agree. Kerry won't make it over the top! The Rats' behavior today shows that they're nervous.

[jwalsh07]

Well there were 12 male members of my family in the Poconos this weekend for a party for my Uncle. We're all voting Bush as are, I might add, all the wives and children of age.

[RWR8189]

Its not one poll, its the majority of the polls showing the race within MoE, its the fact that they can only steal it if its close.

[Zechariah11]

Not just in this thread. If you've watched the board -- SIX threads on this one Gallup Poll -- some started by/pushed by newbies; some out to discourage Freepers, you'd see why I had one out just to complain about this hype.

They are acting like Gallup is Holy Writ.

[thecanuck]

Not if your support was weak to start with and all polls suggest Kerry voters are less committed then Bush's.

[Merlin_Guy]

These polls are meaningless. They are national numbers, we do not have a national election. We do have a series of state elections that add up to a national winner. Kerry can get millions of extra votes in NY, MA, CT, CA which drives his national poll numbers up but they add zero to his electoral count. In my view this is exactly what is happening, Kerry is running very strong in the core blue states so his national percentages look good. And this gives the MSM a chance to say the race is close.

[dogbyte12]

I just think people don't want the overconfidence from 2000. We loved the polls back then, and 4 million evangelicals sat home and didn't vote. I am actually happier with ties in the latest polls. These fake polls will just encourage people that their vote counts.

[oceanview]

I agree, but that is the part I don't get. I have to cast my vote in NY - where I know Bush will lose. Yet I, and my family, and the republicans I know here will be going out and voting.

there seem to be some freepers who see a slight lead, even a tie, as so depressing that I worry that their next post is going to be "why bother". they ought to live in NY like I do. what should I be saying?

[AFPhys]

Bookmark and note to self to check this for accuracy after election.
/

[MaryJaneNC]

Yes...that is apparent.
It is not 49/49

[ModelBreaker]

long faces at headquarters

Probably shouldn't say in public. DUmmies read this board.

[Cedric]

I live in CA. I'd be willing to call some folks in PA if that's what the GOP needs. Can you provide a link?

[kesg]

You know Gallup probably better than anyone, so let me ask you the following question: how good is their track record in state by state polling? If Gallup says that Bush now leads nationally by only two points among LVs, I can accept that (although I think that the actualy lead is probably closer to three points). But I am not so sure about their state by state polling, especially when compared with the Mason Dixon polls. I would appreciate your thoughts. TIA.

[fortheDeclaration]

Thank you for well reasoned view!

The Polls are in 'bed' with the MSM and are greatly underestimating the Bush vote.

[conservativepoet]

Forget the daily tracking polls: Fox Bush +5 last Thurs or Friday, Newsweek Bush +6 this weekend, Mason-Dixon (state polls) good news for Bush yesterady, Bush has 15pt. lead in early voting, Karl Rove said yesterday that Kerry has to win all the mid-westeran states to win.

[Cableguy]

My quick and dirty analysis shows for party ID:

Republicans 33%
Democrats 39%
Independents 28%

I am going to try to run dvwjr's more accurate program.

[God luvs America]

thanks for the input...if I need help I'll be sure to Freep mail you first...

[conservativepoet]

Sorry, spelling atrocious tonight.

[Elvis van Foster]

You're right about the election being a series of state elections. But look at the internals posted above. In the white states (tossup), Bush's approval ratings dropped like a stone and 52% of the voters are Kerry's there.

Now, that hurts if you put a lot of stock into this poll. I don't. It includes some states that aren't close (WA, for example).

[KeatsforFirstDog]

One thing I noticed right off the bat is that it shows Bush leading by only four points among men. That's baloney! It sounds to me like they got a bad Friday night sample like FOX did. The FOX poll showed Kerry leading Bush by two among men.

I totally agree...AND look at the part where Bush is BARELY up in the South (6 pts??). No way he's ot up by at least 15-16 pts in the South. The men and South internals are messed up...gotta be high school football on Friday and college on Saturday, lol.