Its not one poll, its the majority of the polls showing the race within MoE, its the fact that they can only steal it if its close.
Forget the daily tracking polls: Fox Bush +5 last Thurs or Friday, Newsweek Bush +6 this weekend, Mason-Dixon (state polls) good news for Bush yesterady, Bush has 15pt. lead in early voting, Karl Rove said yesterday that Kerry has to win all the mid-westeran states to win.