Gallup Polls Internals [October 29-31]

Gallup News Service ^ | October 31, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	49
% JOHN KERRY	49
% RALPH NADER	1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004 Based on Likely Voters
View complete trend

[RWR8189]

LV:

 

Date	% George W. Bush	% John Kerry
2004 Oct 29-31	49	47
2004 Oct 22-24	52	46
2004 Oct 14-16	52	44
2004 Oct 9-10	48	50
2004 Oct 1-3	49	49

RV

 

Date	% George W. Bush	% John Kerry	% Ralph Nader
2004 Oct 29-31	49	49	1
2004 Oct 22-24	51	46	1
2004 Oct 14-16	52	44	1
2004 Oct 9-10	48	49	1
2004 Oct 1-3	49	49	1

LV

Date	% George W. Bush	% John Kerry	% Ralph Nader
2004 Oct 29-31	49	49	1
2004 Oct 22-24	51	46	1
2004 Oct 14-16	52	44	1
2004 Oct 9-10	48	49	1
2004 Oct 1-3	49	49	1

RV

Date	% George W. Bush	% John Kerry	% Ralph Nader
2004 Oct 29-31	46	48	1
2004 Oct 22-24	49	47	1
2004 Oct 14-16	49	46	1
2004 Oct 9-10	48	48	1
2004 Oct 1-3	49	47	1

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry Based on Registered Voters

Oct 29-31

Oct 22-24		Oct 14-16		Oct 9-10
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	47	48	49	46	50	48	48
Gender
Men	46	50	44	54	40	56	44	53
Women	50	44	51	45	51	44	52	43
Race
Whites	42	53	42	55	40	56	41	55
Non-whites	73	22	70	26	69	23	74	20
Age
18-49	49	47	47	51	45	51	47	48
50-64	48	48	48	48	46	50	48	49
65+	48	44	49	44	48	45	50	48
Region
East	56	39	55	43	54	42	55	42
Midwest	48	45	49	46	44	50	43	52
South	45	51	40	56	41	56	45	51
West	47	49	49	49	47	49	50	46
Education
Post-graduate	52	45	55	44	54	42	61	36
College graduate	41	55	44	55	35	63	47	51
Some college	45	51	45	52	43	52	44	51
High school or less	52	40	48	47	49	46	46	50
Income
$75,000 or more	41	57	40	58	43	55	41	55
$50,000-$74,999	42	54	45	53	39	60	39	58
$30,000-$49,999	50	46	49	47	47	48	51	47
Less than $30,000	59	34	56	39	54	39	59	36
Ideology
Conservative	25	71	25	73	19	79	24	73
Moderate	59	36	57	39	54	39	54	43
Liberal	83	14	90	8	85	11	84	10
Partisanship
Republicans	6	93	5	94	9	89	6	92
Independents	48	40	49	44	48	45	50	42
Democrats	91	7	88	9	85	11	90	8

Demographics -- Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader Based on Registered Voters

October 29-31

October 22-24			October 14-16
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	48	46	1	47	49	1	46	49	1
Gender
Men	46	49	*	43	54	1	40	54	2
Women	49	44	1	50	44	1	50	44	1
Race
Whites	41	53	1	41	55	1	40	56	1
Non-whites	72	22	1	69	26	1	67	21	4
Age
18-49	48	47	1	47	51	1	45	50	2
50-64	47	48	1	47	48	2	45	49	2
65+	48	44	*	49	44	*	48	44	1
Region
East	55	39	1	55	42	*	54	41	1
Midwest	47	45	1	49	46	*	44	49	1
South	44	51	1	39	55	2	40	56	1
West	47	49	*	47	49	2	45	48	3
Education
Post-graduate	51	45	1	55	44	*	53	41	2
College graduate	40	55	1	44	55	*	35	62	1
Some college	46	51	1	44	52	1	43	52	1
High school or less	51	40	1	47	46	2	48	44	2
Income
$75,000 or more	42	56	*	40	58	*	42	55	1
$50,000-$74,999	41	54	2	45	53	--	38	60	1
$30,000-$49,999	49	46	1	49	47	1	47	47	2
Less than $30,000	59	34	1	55	39	3	54	37	2
Ideology
Conservative	25	71	1	25	73	*	19	79	*
Moderate	58	36	1	56	39	1	54	38	2
Liberal	82	14	1	88	8	2	85	9	3
Partisanship
Republicans	6	93	--	5	93	1	9	89	*
Independents	46	40	3	47	44	2	47	42	5
Democrats	91	7	*	88	9	--	85	11	--

Key State Breakdown

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Based on National Adults

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
Bush (Red) States
2004 Oct 29-31	59	36	5
2004 Oct 22-24	59	38	3
2004 Oct 14-16	64	34	2
2004 Oct 11-14	55	42	3
2004 Oct 9-10	54	43	3
2004 Oct 1-3	58	40	2
2004 Sep 24-26	62	35	3
2004 Sep 13-15	56	39	5
2004 Sep 3-5	57	41	2
2004 Aug 23-25	57	38	5
2004 Aug 9-11	63	34	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	54	43	3
2004 Jul 19-21	57	37	6
2004 Jul 8-11	54	42	4
2004 Jun 21-23	54	42	4
2004 Jun 3-6	53	45	2
2004 May 21-23	53	42	5
2004 May 7-9	50	47	3
2004 May 2-4	54	42	4
2004 Apr 16-18	63	35	2
2004 Apr 5-8	62	35	3
2004 Mar 26-28	55	42	3
2004 Mar 5-7	54	41	5
2004 Feb 16-17	61	37	2
2004 Feb 6-8	55	42	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	57	41	2
2004 Jan 9-11	68	28	4
2004 Jan 2-5	66	31	3
Gore (Blue) States
2004 Oct 29-31	41	55	4
2004 Oct 22-24	46	51	3
2004 Oct 14-16	41	58	1
2004 Oct 11-14	42	56	2
2004 Oct 9-10	44	52	4
2004 Oct 1-3	43	56	1
2004 Sep 24-26	47	52	1
2004 Sep 13-15	45	53	2
2004 Sep 3-5	46	50	4
2004 Aug 23-25	41	56	3
2004 Aug 9-11	42	55	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	39	57	4
2004 Jul 19-21	39	59	2
2004 Jul 8-11	42	57	1
2004 Jun 21-23	42	56	2
2004 Jun 3-6	44	54	2
2004 May 21-23	40	56	4
2004 May 7-9	41	56	3
2004 May 2-4	44	53	3
2004 Apr 16-18	43	54	3
2004 Apr 5-8	41	58	1
2004 Mar 26-28	48	49	3
2004 Mar 5-7	45	53	2
2004 Feb 16-17	45	51	4
2004 Feb 6-8	47	49	4
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	46	53	1
2004 Jan 9-11	51	47	2
2004 Jan 2-5	55	38	7
Up For Grab States
2004 Oct 29-31	43	52	5
2004 Oct 22-24	46	51	3
2004 Oct 14-16	48	50	2
2004 Oct 11-14	48	48	4
2004 Oct 9-10	44	52	4
2004 Oct 1-3	48	50	2
2004 Sep 24-26	50	48	2
2004 Sep 13-15	52	44	4
2004 Sep 3-5	50	49	1
2004 Aug 23-25	49	49	2
2004 Aug 9-11	46	49	5
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	48	48	4
2004 Jul 19-21	49	48	3
2004 Jul 8-11	45	50	5
2004 Jun 21-23	45	51	4
2004 Jun 3-6	49	49	2
2004 May 21-23	46	51	3
2004 May 7-9	47	51	2
2004 May 2-4	47	51	2
2004 Apr 16-18	47	48	5
2004 Apr 5-8	51	45	4
2004 Mar 26-28	54	44	2
2004 Mar 5-7	47	51	2
2004 Feb 16-17	46	52	2
2004 Feb 6-8	53	42	5
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	44	52	4
2004 Jan 9-11	57	40	3
2004 Jan 2-5	59	37	4

If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

Based on Registered Voters

	Kerry	Bush	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Bush (Red) States
2004 Oct 29-31	39	58	*	*	3
2004 Oct 22-24	40	57	*	*	3
2004 Oct 14-16	34	62	2	--	2
2004 Oct 9-10	41	55	2	--	2
2004 Oct 1-3	38	60	*	1	1
2004 Sep 24-26	34	62	2	--	2
2004 Sep 13-15	39	56	2	*	3
2004 Sep 3-5	42	55	2	*	1
2004 Aug 23-25	41	55	2	--	2
2004 Aug 9-11	39	58	1	*	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	41	55	1	--	3
2004 Jul 19-21	41	54	1	--	4
2004 Jul 8-11	45	50	1	*	4
2004 Jun 21-23	43	51	2	1	3
2004 Jun 3-6	44	48	3	*	5
2004 May 21-23	43	51	1	1	4
2004 May 7-9	48	46	4	*	2
2004 May 2-4	41	54	2	1	3
2004 Apr 16-18	35	61	2	*	2
2004 Apr 5-8	41	53	*	2	4
2004 Mar 26-28	40	53	3	*	4
2004 Mar 5-7	45	52	1	*	2
2004 Feb 16-17	39	58	2	--	1
2004 Feb 6-8	44	54	*	--	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	41	56	2	--	1
2004 Jan 9-11	32	66	1	--	1
Gore (Blue) States
2004 Oct 29-31	55	39	1	*	5
2004 Oct 22-24	53	44	1	--	2
2004 Oct 14-16	59	38	*	*	3
2004 Oct 9-10	53	44	1	--	2
2004 Oct 1-3	55	41	3	--	1
2004 Sep 24-26	49	49	1	--	1
2004 Sep 13-15	52	44	1	1	3
2004 Sep 3-5	52	45	2	*	1
2004 Aug 23-25	57	39	1	--	3
2004 Aug 9-11	56	40	1	*	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	58	39	1	*	2
2004 Jul 19-21	59	36	3	--	2
2004 Jul 8-11	58	39	2	*	1
2004 Jun 21-23	53	39	5	1	2
2004 Jun 3-6	57	37	3	*	3
2004 May 21-23	55	38	4	--	3
2004 May 7-9	58	35	3	1	3
2004 May 2-4	52	43	2	1	2
2004 Apr 16-18	57	40	1	*	2
2004 Apr 5-8	57	35	5	*	3
2004 Mar 26-28	57	40	1	*	2
2004 Mar 5-7	57	39	3	--	1
2004 Feb 16-17	57	39	2	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	57	39	2	--	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	42	1	--	4
2004 Jan 9-11	46	50	3	--	1
Up For Grab States
2004 Oct 29-31	52	42	1	1	4
2004 Oct 22-24	49	47	2	*	2
2004 Oct 14-16	47	47	1	--	5
2004 Oct 9-10	50	45	2	1	3
2004 Oct 1-3	51	46	2	1	*
2004 Sep 24-26	43	50	3	--	4
2004 Sep 13-15	43	54	2	--	1
2004 Sep 3-5	50	45	3	*	2
2004 Aug 23-25	47	46	4	--	3
2004 Aug 9-11	47	45	3	2	3
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Jul 19-21	48	44	4	*	4
2004 Jul 8-11	51	41	4	*	4
2004 Jun 21-23	53	44	1	--	2
2004 Jun 3-6	49	44	3	*	4
2004 May 21-23	50	45	2	*	3
2004 May 7-9	46	48	3	--	3
2004 May 2-4	49	45	2	*	4
2004 Apr 16-18	48	47	4	*	1
2004 Apr 5-8	47	47	4	*	2
2004 Mar 26-28	42	52	3	*	3
2004 Mar 5-7	50	43	4	*	3
2004 Feb 16-17	57	40	2	--	1
2004 Feb 6-8	47	49	1	--	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	57	39	1	--	3
2004 Jan 9-11	43	53	2	--	2

[RWR8189]

Big Gallup Ping

[Perdogg]

What does all of this mean?

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

THE story that
ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, NBC, NY Times
DON'T WANT AMERICA TO KNOW!

John Kerry's Discharge
He won't sign Form 180
What is he hiding?

"There is overwhelming evidence that the Navy gave John Kerry either a dishonorable discharge
or an undesirable discharge – which is the equivalent of a dishonorable discharge
without the felony conviction – and that, as a result of such discharge,
he was stripped of all of his famous but questionable Navy awards and medals.

And the kicker? The evidence is on his website!"

http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41200

BUT
ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, NBC, NY Times
made sure you knew about the "Bush" documents.

Q) Why did
ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, NBC, NY Times
NOT ask Kerry about why he wouldn't sign Form 180?

A) Because they are AFRAID of the REAL story!

Don't let ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC
try to "give" the election to Kerry
like they did Gore in FL

http://tonkin.spymac.net/votefraud.html

Spread the word on the internet!

Post on internet boards AND e-mails!

Kerry's October Surprise (Missippi Press)

http://www.gulflive.com/opinion/mississippipress/index.ssf?/base/opinion/109904493874180.xml

THE Next Smoking Gun - the "proof"

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/proof.htm

Kerry's Military Discharge. What's Kerry Hiding?

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/blog-buzzcut.php?range=10/24/2004+-+10/30/2004

Kerry's Dishonorable Discharge

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/markalexander/ma20041023.shtml

Editorial Comments about Kerry's Discharge

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/dischargeeditorials.htm

Kerry Military Discharge Deception, look at the online documentation!

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/discharge2.htm

Mystery Surrounds Kerry's Navy Discharge

http://www.nysun.com/article/3107

The original article, posted 9/24/04

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/discharge.htm

The whole 42:09 Stolen Honor online FREE right now! E-mail it NOW!

Stolen Honor nails Kerry and the VVAW
and how they lied at Winter Soldier.
And how Kerry lied to the US Senate in 1971
And how Kerry and his pack of liars caused our POW's to suffer!

Kerry and the DNC cannot stop
EVERYONE on the internet from seeing this!

http://stolenhonor.com/documentary/watch-video.asp

E-mail the FREE xxcerpts clips to everyone NOW!

http://stolenhonor.com/documentary/program-excerpts.asp

LATEST SWIFT BOAT VETS AD!

http://humaneventsonline.com.edgesuite.net/unfittolead.html

Swift Vets and POW's
We Have Questions
Free Videos!
http://www.swiftvetsandpows.com/

Hanoi Approved of Role Played By Kerry and VVAW

http://www.nysun.com/article/3756

Timeline of John Kerry
http://www.archive-news.net/Kerry/JK_timeline.html

Click Here for
All the Latest Swift Boat Vets Ad!
http://www.swiftvets.com/

Click Here for
All the Swift Boat Vets Ads!
View for FREE!
http://www2.swiftvets.com/index.php?topic=Ads

Free online version of
John Kerry and the VVAW
"The New Soldier"
Banned by the DNC!
You can read it online right now.
http://ejsmithweb.com/fr/newsoldier/

The Swiftvets news conference on C-SPAN can be found here.
AND other valuable Video and Audio links.
http://www.peteandrews.net/media.htm

The Children of Viet Nam Veterans Video (Not an easy one to watch)

Please remember the 58,000 + Names on the Wall on Nov 2

Please watch this video

Thank You

http://kerrylied.com/otherdocs/flash.htm

Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick

[fortheDeclaration]

Big Gallop-ho hum,

49-49?

Yea, right.

[RWR8189]

Honestly, I'm the less optimistic right now than I have been the whole campaign.

[RKV]

It is the setup for massive voter fraud by the RATs in the swing states is what it means.

[Perdogg]

Gee, that's nice.

[Callahan]

The 49-49-1 is registered voters, not likely.

[southohio]

I guess Zogby's sauce is about right

[fortheDeclaration]

What does all of this mean?

It means that no poll is going to come out with a poll showing Bush well ahead of the margin of error as not to surpress the Democrat turnout.

[jwalsh07]

Are the latest numbers on the left or right in the demographics?

[Callahan]

What do you mean?

[RW1974]

It would be much more helpful if Gallup provided the internals for their likely voter model. The internals for registered voters aren't much help at all.

[Bungarian]

49 to 47 LV.

Gallop gives the indecides to Kerry to make it 49 49

[Zechariah11]

Sorry to hear that. Gee whiz.

[Antoninus]

At this point, the polls are meaningless. Make it happen...

Democrats for Bush Flyer -- Print it, copy it, distribute it

[RWR8189]

I just double checked the website and it says the same thing I posted.

[puroresu]

One thing I noticed right off the bat is that it shows Bush leading by only four points among men. That's baloney! It sounds to me like they got a bad Friday night sample like FOX did. The FOX poll showed Kerry leading Bush by two among men.

[jveritas]

Do not be.

President Bush will win Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa.