Posted on 10/30/2004 11:02:17 AM PDT by FairOpinion
Just announced on FoxNews
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
You're right.
This is so crazy,,they were comparing one from wed and thur and the second one from thru and fri. I saw it twice, is it possible we are seeing two different polls.
::sigh:: I so look forward to the end of this election.
We could take out all the comments in this thread, replace them with old poll commentary, and it would be exactly the same.
Up, Down. Landslide, crushing defeat.
I have expectations this election. I'm now upping them to include the hope this election will destroy the illusion these polls are oracles. They are used to affect people's perception of the race. That, in its way, is as dishonest as all the MSM collusion that has taken place with the DNC.
Not that I am against polls, but I am against them being used as horoscopes to influence the race by the MSM.
BTW, look for the polls to tighten all through the weekend. Then they might show an uptick right before Nov. 2nd, depending on if they can be adjusted not to overwhelmingly reflect weekend polling. No, I have no insider information, this has only been my prediction for the last few months and, so far, seems to be proving accurate.
Hugh Hewitt--God bless him--is now saying the only bigger loser than John Kerry on Tuesday will be the MSM. He has fearlessly offered the possibility of Kerry winning 40 states, and as events unfolded this week, maybe 45. I can't find this kind of confidence in many other places. Hope he's right. (And I sure miss listening to him.)
I presume you mean Bush and NOT Kerry...
I think you mean Bush.
Anyway my 2 cents worth. Saturdays have to be the least watched TV day of the week and not focusing on the elction and people are not at home, especially this Saturday.
I feel kinda of like Eddie Murphy in Trading Places saying this but here it goes. Mothers and Fathers are going nuts right about now getting their kids Halloween costumes ready for trick or treating tonight and young adults are going nuts getting their costumes correct.
Well the gist of this is that people have made up their minds and the best thing to do is not get discouraged especially since the polls are "even" and go vote for Bush on Tuesday.
Given the internals found in the pdf.
1200 likely voters results in 47%B 45%K 8%Other
367 rep + 400 dem + 433 ind = 1200 voters
It smells like a manufactured poll to me.
The numbers are too nice.
Oops! Yes, I did mean BUSH winning 40 or 45 states. I'll post this and then go wash my hands.
I dont buy this poll for a sec...he was up 49-42, and 50-45 in the last 2 FOX polls.and nothing has happened since to cause him to lose points.......and theres no way Bin Laden adds points to Kerry.....Just BS, very skeptical of this poll.
also a much bigger number of undecideds in this result.
I was freaking out when I first heard this.
horrible News.....
THEN.....I realized it was basically a rush poll to get something out about the OBL reaction. And, Dems were oversampled since they did not take as much care as usual to be pretty good with this.
I won't worry too much over this one. Especially with the good ABC poll for Bush today.
However, if two more polls or so start to show Kerry movement between now and Monday, then I might get concerned....but, it will have to be more than the normal weekend bump....it will have to be a clear shift.
Not just Michigan. Detroit of all places.He had Detroit locked up while he was in Viet Nam in the 70's.
All these tracking polls are from yesterday and before. WP said Kerry polled well yesterday and that we should see it in the WP Poll tonight...we are still getting the static of the explosives today and won't see any movement until tomorrow on what the Osma tape has done...but the Democrats have told AP"s Fournier who is covering the campaign( just 1 hour ago.)that they have seen in their daily tracking poll...meaning today... a lift for the President as does the republican insiders also .....see Kerry Spot...sp don't panic until this gets out which takes time...its not like the country is glued to this like we are.....patience...go read Kerry Spot...then the AP news piece...you will feel better....
I went to the writeup of the 47-45 poll. It is dated October 30 (today), but clearly states that the polling was done on October 27 and 28 in the evening. Here is a link:
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/103004_poll.pdf
But I have to tell you that now I am a bit confused. If you go to the Fox newsite, the writeup there says that the poll was conducted October 28 and 29, although most of the October 29 interviews were conducted prior to the UBL tape being released. Here is a link to the article:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137139,00.html
Incidentally, I have to say that my experience with most tracking poll is that they are usually almost always a full day behind the day on which they say they polled. Tomorrow is the first day that we should be noticing any impact from the OBL tape.
Ah, the voice of reason. I thought my eyes were lying! If half on Fri saw the tape, they are ahead of me, as I have not seen anything but clips of it. Has anyone seen the tape and seen the translations. The reader of the translation on the tape is no Edward Murrow, I can barely undrstand him.
Thanks for the post, it is clear now.
I don't mean to be gloom and doom but this scares me! Just imagine if Bin Landen speaks and America listens. He only had to tell us how to vote and we did it like stupid scared sheep walking to the slaughter house. I can believe America could be this dumb!!!!!
This Fox poll did not show any Kerry movement.
What time is the WashPo poll released?....it's been reported that skerry'd cat had a good day yesterday.
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