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Gallup poll accuracy...good news for Bush.
Gallup online. ^
Posted on 10/29/2004 3:17:38 PM PDT by kyperman
Check out the accuracy of Gallup polls since 1936, they have been close most years and even a little low. That means to me that Bush wins. Gallup has bush up 51 to 46. That tells me that Bush wins by 53 to 45.
2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1 Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4 Nader 4.0 2.7 +1.3
1996 Clinton 52.0 49.2 +2.8 Dole 41.0 40.7 -0.3
Perot 7.0 8.4 -1.4
1992 Clinton 49.0 43.3 +5.7 Bush 37.0 37.7 -0.7 Perot 14.0 19.0 -5.0
1988 Bush 56.0 53.9 +2.1 Dukakis 44.0 46.1 -2.1
1984 Reagan 59.0 59.2 -0.2 Mondale 41.0 40.8 +0.2
1980 Reagan 47.0 50.8 -3.8 Carter 44.0 41.0 +3.0 Anderson 8.0 6.6 +1.4 Other 1.0 1.6 -0.6
1976 Carter 48.0 50.1 -2.1 Ford 49.0 48.1 +0.9 McCarthy 2.0 0.9 +1.1 Other 1.0 0.9 +0.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gallup; galluppolls; pollaccuracy; polls
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1
posted on
10/29/2004 3:17:38 PM PDT
by
kyperman
To: kyperman
There is one last Gallup poll coming out this weekend. That is the one we should be paying attention to. We'll see.
2
posted on
10/29/2004 3:19:08 PM PDT
by
merzbow
To: kyperman
Good news but people still got to show up and vote. If we coast, we CAN lose. Go W!
3
posted on
10/29/2004 3:20:15 PM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
To: kyperman
4
posted on
10/29/2004 3:20:43 PM PDT
by
MaryFromMichigan
(Freeper-ette formerly known as Tooters)
To: kyperman
Good news, but we all need to get out and vote NO MATTER WHAT!!! No complacency!
5
posted on
10/29/2004 3:21:48 PM PDT
by
PilloryHillary
(John Kerry: Still a traitor after 33 years! johnfkerrysucks.com)
To: merzbow
Basically, whatever Gallup comes up with this weekend is how the election will turn out. Whoever is up has a 9 in 10 chances of winning (going back to 1930). Could be good, could be bad. Accept the outcome.
6
posted on
10/29/2004 3:21:52 PM PDT
by
mlbford2
("Never wrestle with a pig; you can't win, you just get filthy, and the pig loves it...")
To: MaryFromMichigan
Mary, were are you from in Michigan, how does it look by you? I live in West Michigan, we are gonna go Bush...but the east side of the state is gonna go Kerry.
7
posted on
10/29/2004 3:22:26 PM PDT
by
kyperman
(Hows this for a face you love to hate.)
To: kyperman; Howlin; Miss Marple; JohnHuang2; Tumbleweed_Connection; kayak; bushbabe; All
To: mlbford2
When is their final poll coming out?
9
posted on
10/29/2004 3:23:01 PM PDT
by
kyperman
(Hows this for a face you love to hate.)
To: kyperman; Howlin; Miss Marple; JohnHuang2; Tumbleweed_Connection; kayak; bushbabe; All
To: kyperman; Salvation; redlipstick; texasflower; seamole; Doctor Stochastic; MegaSilver; BlueAngel; ..
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
11
posted on
10/29/2004 3:23:06 PM PDT
by
RWR8189
(Its Morning in America Again!)
To: kyperman
Here this is easier to comprehend:
 |
| Quick Links |
 |
|
|
Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
|
|
| Year |
Candidates |
Final Gallup Survey |
Election Result |
Gallup Deviation |
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
| |
| 2000 |
Bush |
48.0 |
47.9 |
+0.1 |
| |
Gore |
46.0 |
48.4 |
-2.4 |
| |
Nader |
4.0 |
2.7 |
+1.3 |
| |
| 1996 |
Clinton |
52.0 |
49.2 |
+2.8 |
| |
Dole |
41.0 |
40.7 |
-0.3 |
| |
Perot |
7.0 |
8.4 |
-1.4 |
| |
| 1992 |
Clinton |
49.0 |
43.3 |
+5.7 |
| |
Bush |
37.0 |
37.7 |
-0.7 |
| |
Perot |
14.0 |
19.0 |
-5.0 |
| |
| 1988 |
Bush |
56.0 |
53.9 |
+2.1 |
| |
Dukakis |
44.0 |
46.1 |
-2.1 |
| |
| 1984 |
Reagan |
59.0 |
59.2 |
-0.2 |
| |
Mondale |
41.0 |
40.8 |
+0.2 |
| |
| 1980 |
Reagan |
47.0 |
50.8 |
-3.8 |
| |
Carter |
44.0 |
41.0 |
+3.0 |
| |
Anderson |
8.0 |
6.6 |
+1.4 |
| |
Other |
1.0 |
1.6 |
-0.6 |
| |
| 1976 |
Carter |
48.0 |
50.1 |
-2.1 |
| |
Ford |
49.0 |
48.1 |
+0.9 |
| |
McCarthy |
2.0 |
0.9 |
+1.1 |
| |
Other |
1.0 |
0.9 |
+0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
posted on
10/29/2004 3:23:14 PM PDT
by
aft_lizard
(Actually i voted for John Kerry before I voted against him.)
To: kyperman
OBL sprung his October suprise. Love to see how that will affect the polls.
To: kyperman
Based on their error of having the winner win by MORE than they predicted it would actually be Bush 49, Kerry 47. But still Bush...
Just pray for the electoral votes.
14
posted on
10/29/2004 3:24:51 PM PDT
by
69ConvertibleFirebird
(Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.)
To: kyperman
15
posted on
10/29/2004 3:24:57 PM PDT
by
RWR8189
(Its Morning in America Again!)
To: Semper Paratus
16
posted on
10/29/2004 3:25:10 PM PDT
by
mlbford2
("Never wrestle with a pig; you can't win, you just get filthy, and the pig loves it...")
To: kyperman
17
posted on
10/29/2004 3:25:36 PM PDT
by
mlbford2
("Never wrestle with a pig; you can't win, you just get filthy, and the pig loves it...")
To: kyperman
> Check out the accuracy of Gallup polls since 1936 ...
In which of those elections did we have:
* a major enemy figure take sides in the election, or
* finally see some evidence that one of the candidates
had an Other Than Honorable Discharge from the Navy
(could yet happen)
* other OctoSurps made possible by media velocity
that simply didn't exist for those historical elections
18
posted on
10/29/2004 3:26:11 PM PDT
by
Boundless
(bin Laden is running an IQ test next Tuesday. Score high on it.)
To: kyperman
Looking at RealClearPolitics.com, there hasn't been a single major poll in over a week that has shown Kerry with a nationwide lead. A couple of the recent polls have it tied, but all the others show Bush with a lead of anywhere from 2-5 points. Furthermore, it looks as though Kerry has run into a ceiling of around 47-48 percent, whereas Bush's ceiling goes up to 50-51 percent.
Bush is going to win the popular vote, but of course it all really comes down to the battleground states. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will most likely decide this election.
19
posted on
10/29/2004 3:26:56 PM PDT
by
jpl
(How do you ask someone to be the next innocent civilian to die from a "nuisance"?)
To: aft_lizard
What's the deal with the Florida election results from 2000...I thought Bush won.
20
posted on
10/29/2004 3:27:20 PM PDT
by
rhombus
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