Posted on 10/29/2004 2:02:47 PM PDT by RWR8189
Bush 50% Kerry 47%
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Nope, no coincidence at all IMO. Just shows what Jonah Goldberg and others have said, that Kerry is a smart man but totally lacking in political instincts. He let himself get co-opted by the Clintonistas, who actually never won a two-man election.
I agree. I think if Kerry was going to have a chance he would have had to made a significant move in the polls by today. If the media's avalanche of negativity can't dissuade voters, then he is screwed because he doesn't have a coherent message to do it himself.
exactly
You forgot to add in all of the religious conservatives that stayed home after the DUI story broke a few days before the 2000 election. Bush Wins! :-)
i hope you remembered to go thru the decontamination chamber
I wish it were true. I know many Bush '00 voters who have switched to Kerry...far more than have switched the other way.
do you work at a mental institution or a prison? are you around alot of gay people? i can safely say the mentally ill, the convicts, and the homers probably are switching to kerry, but not normal people.
PRESIDENT BUSH WILL MAKE A STATEMENT ON THE UBL TAPE SHORTLY ON FOX NEWS.
Check out the internals on the WP web site !! They have gone to a "5 day poll" (Sunday to Thursday) to suppress Bush's numbers for today. With the one-day spike for Kerry from Sunday still included (Sunday to Thursday) it is Bush 50 - 47.
When Sunday's spike rolls off tomorrow, Bush's numbers will surge BIG TIME !!!!
That's right. Gallup, Battleground, Fox all Bush +5. Also, Time is Bush +5.
All 51-46 except Fox which is 50-45.
Also, Harris' last poll was Bush +5 spread at 49.5-44.5.
I expect that if Newsweek polls again it will be similar.
And all of this is very similar to Cheney's prediction of a 52-47 victory last Sunday.
Now, will Rasmussen, Zogby, WaPost/ABC, IBD/TIPP tracking polls all come to conform with this over the weekend, or will they be joining LA Times, AP/IPSOS, Reuters, NBC/WSJ, Pew in saying "Its a tie!"
Can you post that here? And if they have the last 6 days results, post them too. Folks here are able to derive the daily results if they have enough data.
Read carefully....
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10/29: 2,047 likely voters; 2,488 self-identified registered voters Oct. 25-28.
10/28: 1,747 likely voters; 2,145 self-identified registered voters Oct. 24-27.
10/27: 1,709 likely voters; 2,107 self-identified registered voters Oct.23-26.
10/26: 1,666 likely voters; 2,084 self-identified registered voters Oct.22-25.
10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.
10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.
10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.
10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Note the likely voter numbers: 1200+ is a 3-day, 1600+ is a 4-day, and 2000+ is a 5-day sample. Last Friday and Saturday were 3-day polls. Since Sunday it has been a 4-day poll, and now TODAY it is a 5-day poll !!!!
So tomorrow we are looking at a breakout !
More calculations will follow in my next post...
yesterday they changed from a 3-day rolling track to a 4-day.
LOL...NOW its a 5 day ???? that should tell people all they need to know about where this race is.
Wow, I thought for sure the missing explosives would move the polls toward Kerry. The MSM has no pull. Ain't it beautiful?
Thanks.
do we know anything about weights in this poll ?
Numbers from this past week:
Friday, October 22 Bush 50-46
Saturday, October 23 Bush 50-46
Sunday, October 24 Bush 49-48
Monday, October 25 Bush 48-49
Tuesday, October 26 Bush 48-50
Wednesday, October 27 Bush 48-49
Thursday, October 28 Bush 49-48
Friday, October 29 Bush 50-47
With 5 days in hand (Sunday was approximately Kerry +5), Bush still leads Bush +3. Do the calculations and you have a Monday to Thursday total of approximately Bush +17. So we really have a Bush +4 or Bush +5 sample for the past 4 days !!!!
this is notable....on hannity's radio show just now..Mike Barnicle,also from Mass and a long-time personal friend of kerry just predicted a Bush win. hehe
They "partially" weight by various categories such as party identification, gender, and race. Somewhere between Zogby and Gallup in their methodology (closer to Gallup than Zogby).
i meant do we know what the exact weighting was they used ?
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