Is There a National/State Polling Disconnect?

Daly Thoughts (for data) ^ | 10/27/04 | Me

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Some are claiming there is a disconnect between national and state polls. The table below projects the turnout for this election based on state-by-state population growth available from the US Census. I then multiply this turnout prediction by the latest credible State polls (i.e. Mason-Dixon; Gallup; Quinnipiac; Marist; Strategic Vision; etc. - not ARG; Zogby; Lake, Snell, Perry; LA Times; etc.) shown on Freeper Dales "Daly Thoughts" Blog, tally up the state-by-state totals for each candidate, and divides them by the total predicted turnout.

Results? Bush 48.8%, Kerry 45.4% in the national tally.

Compare to the numbers on Real Clear Politics:
Head-to-Head - Bush 49.0%, Kerry 46.4%
Three-Way - Bush 48.4%, Kerry 46.1%, Nader 1.3%

If there is any disconnect, it is the national polls OVER predicting Kerry's tally.

More importantly, Bush currently has 331 Electoral Votes, giving the tie in New Jersey to Kerry.

The data:

	Census	Estimate	Projection	Turnout	Predicted	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Predicted
State	2000	2003	2004	2000	Turnout	Percent	Percent	Tally	Tally	Margin
Alabama	4,447,100	4,500,752	4,518,636	1,672,551	1,699,456	56%	32%	951,695	543,826	407,869
Alaska	626,932	648,818	656,113	285,560	298,852	57%	30%	170,345	89,656	80,690
Arizona	5,130,632	5,580,811	5,730,871	1,534,113	1,713,591	50%	45%	856,795	771,116	85,680
Arkansas	2,673,400	2,725,714	2,743,152	921,781	945,831	51%	46%	482,374	435,082	47,292
California	33,871,648	35,484,453	36,022,055	10,965,856	11,662,044	44%	53%	5,131,300	6,180,884	-1,049,584
Colorado	4,301,261	4,550,688	4,633,830	1,741,365	1,876,006	52%	45%	975,523	844,203	131,320
Connecticut	3,405,565	3,483,372	3,509,308	1,459,525	1,503,986	44%	50%	661,754	751,993	-90,239
Delaware	783,600	817,491	828,788	327,622	346,515	38%	45%	131,676	155,932	-24,256
District of Columbia	572,059	563,384	560,492	201,894	197,812	11%	78%	21,759	154,293	-132,534
Florida	15,982,378	17,019,068	17,364,631	5,963,110	6,478,836	51%	43%	3,304,206	2,785,900	518,307
Georgia	8,186,453	8,684,715	8,850,802	2,596,804	2,807,541	57%	40%	1,600,298	1,123,016	477,282
Hawaii	1,211,537	1,257,608	1,272,965	367,951	386,607	46%	45%	177,839	173,973	3,866
Idaho	1,293,953	1,366,332	1,390,458	501,621	539,033	59%	30%	318,029	161,710	156,320
Illinois	12,419,293	12,653,544	12,731,628	4,742,123	4,861,383	41%	53%	1,993,167	2,576,533	-583,366
Indiana	6,080,485	6,195,643	6,234,029	2,199,302	2,254,839	56%	40%	1,262,710	901,935	360,774
Iowa	2,926,324	2,944,062	2,949,975	1,315,563	1,326,195	50%	46%	663,098	610,050	53,048
Kansas	2,688,418	2,723,507	2,735,203	1,072,216	1,090,875	59%	30%	643,616	327,263	316,354
Kentucky	4,041,769	4,117,827	4,143,180	1,544,187	1,582,932	56%	39%	886,442	617,343	269,098
Louisiana	4,468,976	4,496,334	4,505,453	1,765,656	1,780,068	59%	31%	1,050,240	551,821	498,419
Maine	1,274,923	1,305,728	1,315,996	651,817	672,816	39%	50%	262,398	336,408	-74,010
Maryland	5,296,486	5,508,909	5,579,717	2,025,480	2,133,793	39%	56%	832,179	1,194,924	-362,745
Massachusetts	6,349,097	6,433,422	6,461,530	2,702,984	2,750,850	36%	50%	990,306	1,375,425	-385,119
Michigan	9,938,444	10,079,985	10,127,165	4,232,711	4,313,086	46%	47%	1,984,020	2,027,150	-43,131
Minnesota	4,919,479	5,059,375	5,106,007	2,438,685	2,531,151	47%	44%	1,189,641	1,113,706	75,935
Mississippi	2,844,658	2,881,281	2,893,489	994,926	1,012,005	51%	42%	516,122	425,042	91,080
Missouri	5,595,211	5,704,484	5,740,908	2,359,892	2,421,343	51%	45%	1,234,885	1,089,604	145,281
Montana	902,195	917,621	922,763	410,997	420,367	57%	36%	239,609	151,332	88,277
Nebraska	1,711,263	1,739,291	1,748,634	697,019	712,241	61%	32%	434,467	227,917	206,550
Nevada	1,998,257	2,241,154	2,322,120	608,970	707,667	49%	47%	346,757	332,604	14,153
New Hampshire	1,235,786	1,287,687	1,304,987	569,081	600,948	48%	45%	288,455	270,427	18,028
New Jersey	8,414,350	8,638,396	8,713,078	3,187,226	3,300,380	46%	46%	1,518,175	1,518,175	0
New Mexico	1,819,046	1,874,614	1,893,137	598,605	622,986	50%	42%	311,493	261,654	49,839
New York	18,976,457	19,190,115	19,261,334	6,822,451	6,924,871	38%	56%	2,631,451	3,877,928	-1,246,477
North Carolina	8,049,313	8,407,248	8,526,560	2,911,262	3,083,872	51%	43%	1,572,775	1,326,065	246,710
North Dakota	642,200	633,837	631,049	288,267	283,262	62%	33%	175,622	93,476	82,146
Ohio	11,353,140	11,435,798	11,463,351	4,705,457	4,751,135	50%	46%	2,375,568	2,185,522	190,045
Oklahoma	3,450,654	3,511,532	3,531,825	1,234,229	1,263,262	61%	28%	770,590	353,713	416,876
Oregon	3,421,399	3,559,596	3,605,662	1,533,968	1,616,581	46%	50%	743,627	808,291	-64,663
Pennsylvania	12,281,054	12,365,455	12,393,589	4,913,119	4,958,139	49%	47%	2,429,488	2,330,325	99,163
Rhode Island	1,048,319	1,076,164	1,085,446	409,112	423,601	35%	56%	148,260	237,216	-88,956
South Carolina	4,012,012	4,147,152	4,192,199	1,383,777	1,445,925	57%	39%	824,177	563,911	260,266
South Dakota	754,844	764,309	767,464	316,269	321,557	55%	36%	176,856	115,760	61,096
Tennessee	5,689,283	5,841,748	5,892,570	2,076,181	2,150,366	53%	41%	1,139,694	881,650	258,044
Texas	20,851,820	22,118,509	22,540,739	6,407,637	6,926,631	60%	37%	4,155,979	2,562,854	1,593,125
Utah	2,233,169	2,351,467	2,390,900	770,754	825,193	69%	21%	569,383	173,291	396,093
Vermont	608,827	619,107	622,534	294,308	300,934	40%	53%	120,374	159,495	-39,121
Virginia	7,078,515	7,386,330	7,488,935	2,739,447	2,898,283	50%	44%	1,449,142	1,275,245	173,897
Washington	5,894,121	6,131,445	6,210,553	2,488,745	2,622,356	45%	51%	1,180,060	1,337,401	-157,341
West Virginia	1,808,344	1,810,354	1,811,024	648,124	649,085	49%	44%	318,051	285,597	32,454
Wisconsin	5,363,675	5,472,299	5,508,507	2,598,607	2,668,776	49%	45%	1,307,700	1,200,949	106,751
Wyoming	493,782	501,242	503,729	218,351	222,749	65%	29%	144,787	64,597	80,190
Total	281,421,906	290,809,777	293,939,067	105,417,258	109,888,611	48.8%	45.4%	53,664,958	49,914,183	3,750,775

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Good news!

Must read for the nattering nellies and phuddy duddies here.

[flashbunny]

I can't wait for this to be over.

No more polls
No more annoying ads
And hopefully after novermber 2nd, no more kerry on to watch, hear, or read about.

[Naspino]

This will be very interesting to reference after the election.

[COEXERJ145]

I can't wait for this to be over.

You and me both. I'm just about polled and "electioned" down to nothing.

[Perdogg]

How many EV for Bush??

[grey_whiskers]

His article, above the chart, said 331 EV to Bush,
giving the tie in NJ to Kerry.

[flashbunny]

And if I see another tradesports or Iowa electronic markets vanity posts when their boards hiccup, I'm going to lose it.

[zahal724]

Well, only if it's a LANDSLIDE. Oh, but don't worry, it will be.

[TNCMAXQ]

Even if we lose, I will be relieved this is all over. Then our battle to bring down President Kerry begins. :(

In any case, I will have some kind of withdrawal. This campaign has lasted like a year and a half and for several months it really has consumed me. I've been spending hours on FR every day. I will miss it when it's over! ;-)

[ken5050]

Suggestion, if I may. If you haven't seen it, on MSNBC's website..under electgion central..that have an interactive EC map..you can click ont he states to allocate the EV's to either Bush or Kerry..as YOU feel..lets you easily model all the possible scenarios..IT looks very good for Bush..he can easily win even if he loses BOTH Ohio and PA..

[Jet Jaguar]

Bush currently has 331 Electoral Votes, giving the tie in New Jersey to Kerry

per the article

[Jeff Head]

The only poll that counts will be held next Tuesday. It will reveal what the disconnetcs are...and I believe the MSM has manufactured several of them

[Merry]

I feel that Daly is right. The polls are reflecting the way the pollsters want to make you think the election is going. They aren't showing internals so they could be interviewing all the Kerry staffers for all we know. I have never trusted the poll by I trust Daly.

[Thickman]

On November 3 John F. Kerry can return to the back bench of the U.S. Senate and we won't have to listen to his constant droning any longer.

[Ronzo]

According to these numbers...

From New York state north to Maine, the whole northeast is solid Kerry territory...

California, Oregon & Washington are solid Kerry territory...at least those part of those states closest to the great Pacific Ocean, which must cause tremendous brain damage to those who live near it...

and (sadly) Illinois is solid for Kerry...at least those parts closest to Lake Michigan and the Mississippi River...(something about being close to water must make people vote Democratic...someone needs to do a study...)

I bet if we were to see a county-by-county poll, it would look alot like the final results for Bush-Gore in 2000.

[COEXERJ145]

And if I see another tradesports or Iowa electronic markets vanity posts when their boards hiccup, I'm going to lose it.

Amen to that. At least twice a day someone has to start a thread that "Bush is crashing" and/or "Kerry is surging" in one or both of the markets. Or any thread with news that is either pro-Kerry or anti-Bush someone has to tell us that This is the Story that is crashing Bush in the markets.

[reformedliberal]

And we're the political junkies!

We were encountering this when surveying the base in September. By October, identified solid Republicans were not answering or were hanging up. This is one part of the ground game that needs refining. We were only speaking to a fraction of identified Republicans, as it was, due to cells and call screening/answering machines.

My volunteers' favorite word was "cranky".

[PadreL]

I can't wait for all this to be over. I too am spending hours on FR digesting all the information and trying to figure out what the outcome will be. I did early voting today...what a great feeling to vote for W!

Keep praying, keep the faith and keep GOTV.

[Teslas Pigeon]

There is a problem with bringing Kerry down. The economy is doing good now, I am sure Kerry will try to mess it up, but it should be doing great in 4 years. Iraq will be seeing elections in a few months and in 4 years, after all of the hard work by GWB and the military, Iraq might be in good shape. Kerry will claim he caused all these good things, will have accomplished a lot in office, most importantly appointing 2 or 3 Ruth Bader Ginsburgs to SCOTUS. The MSM will agree with the "Kerry wonders" and he will be re-elected. That is why we MUST stop him now!

[rwfromkansas]

Love it: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6028629/?ta=y

Bush has a lot more options to win.