Posted on 10/25/2004 10:33:48 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK
Monday,October 25 2004 ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.
In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.
As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.
As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.
Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. J. McIntyre 11:28 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend
Believe what you like. We had none other than Bob Beckworth on Fox this morning admitting that Kerry has a lot to do to coax the black vote. A recent poll showed it very much up for Bush, too, from 9% in 2000 to around 18%. Even if he increases it a couple points from 2000!! HE's also closed the women vote gap, and obviously he is holding strong as ever with men. W is for winner!
If their own campaign is admitting it...
I remember the same things being said about Gore in 2000.
Great news. I heard this on Fox this morning. This should prevent quite a bit of Rat fraud in those states.
The writing is on the wall. Read it.
So, why is sKerry spending tons of $$ in Mass. on TV and radio ads? That's a sign that buoys GOP hopes.
I read on the Kerry Spot that the latest Rassmussen poll was a push poll with the first question asking if the person supported the draft.
Great article!
Are you talking about the 8% on this Web site that think Kerry will win?
I agree, per the last Rasmussen FL poll on Oct 15 Bush had a 56% favorable opinion rating. He will win big in FL just like Jeb who has an 81% favorable.
I thought it was that provisional ballots in OH--and last week for FL--could not be used in districts other than the one in which the voter resided. That in itself is a major victory. I had not heard about Michigan. Good news.
Yep....
W did have good numbers in 2002, and yes, I agree that played a factor in Jeb's winning re-election. But by a landslide?
The Dems spent a ton of money trying to get him out.
We'll need at least 2-3% just to overcome voter fraud.
Tack on another percent or two just to show that litigation is NOT the freakin' answer, or that it won't have an effect.
If it is close again and Kerry sues, the MSM will be screaming "You see, Bush is trying to steal the election AGAIN! And look who is going to 'pick' it again!"
I'm hoping for him to pull away, but even if he does, DON'T GET COMPLACENT. Not until November 3rd.
And I still say, let's shock 'em all on Election Night and give New Jersey to Bush!! (not gonna happen unless we try to make it happen!)
TS
thanks for the post. your concern is well founded. there is a margin of error in the election process, which those involved in systems theory call noise, which runs from about .25% to .5% if memory serves me correctly. some democrats i know and republicans i know (these are elected officials or those supporting their parties) feel that the system is skewed toward democrats by .5% to 1.5%, for a variety of reasons, some involved cheating, and some involving the skewing of noise toward the democrats.
personally, i think the tables against the republicans has been skewed by less than 1%, but this year things seem to be ugly. my greatest hope is that there are enough people out there in charge of voting that are professionals that things will not get out of hand.
i have not personally studied this, but do have degrees in math and have significantly studied statistics, so i am capable of looking at data and drawing second hand conclusions.
Has anyone noticed that Bush is kicking A$$ in Hawaii? Hmm, weren't they the first state to enact a DOMA bill? Is Gay Marriage an issue? Just imagine "Chief Justice Margaret Marshall".
YES...Bush is winning Hawaii.....heck there might more surprises by the election days...I am hoping for a Bush landslide....if you're gonna dream, dream BIG!!!
Hawaii ( 4 Electoral Votes)
>> Results from 2000 Election: Bush 37.5, Gore 55.8, Nader 5.9 (Gore +18.3)
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/13 - 10/20 - - 44.7 43.8 - Bush +0.9
SMS Research | 10/17-20 612 LV 4.0 46 45 - Bush +1
Honolulu Advertiser| 10/13-18 600 LV 4.0 43.3 42.6 - Bush +0.7
All Hawaii Polls | Nader: OFF the Ballot - In Court
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