Posted on 10/25/2004 10:33:48 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK
Monday,October 25 2004 ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.
In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.
As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.
As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.
Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. J. McIntyre 11:28 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend
I know theoretically it is possible: and I do think Bush is going to win WI, NM, and IA, but I don't see Bush winning without either FL or OH, nor do I think that will be necessary. I haven't seen anything to suggest that we aren't looking at a 320 EV Bush victory.
Balderdash to all you gloom and doomers.
Florida is not going to go to Kerry. Remember how Terry McAuliffe vowed to send a message to W. by promising Jeb would voted out as governor in 2002? He sent a message alright, but it wasn't the kind that should inspire confidence in Democrats.
Look at the rally in Jacksonville over the weekend - Bush spoke before an estimated 50,000 at Alltel Stadium. John Edwards was in town the night before, and spoke to a whopping 2,500 in Metropolitan Park.
One more thing: God forgive me for saying anything nice about Al Gore, but he was a much stronger candidate than John Kerry ever was. Voters knew where Gore stood. Kerry has left them unclear on many issues. That in itself is bad, but during a war, it's fatal.
All this said, get yourself and every W. supporter you know to the polls and vote.
President Bush will WIN Ohio.
That's because he was up, and comfortably, with a week to go. The DWI revelation and premature FL call changed all that.
Bullhockey. Back that assertion up with some facts.
Look at the rally in Jacksonville over the weekend - Bush spoke before an estimated 50,000 at Alltel Stadium. John Edwards was in town the night before, and spoke to a whopping 2,500 in Metropolitan Park.
YEAH, and Rosie and Cher have a "handful" at their speeches.....Florida, I feel will go Bush...they are tired of the Dems rhetoric and Bush has done a great job in their state!!!
Are you ALWAYS completely pessimistic in the face of good news?
But are you and others prepared emotionally for when the lamestream media tells you Kerry has closed the gap and it's a dead heat?
I'd rather have them tell us it's a dead heat and then BLOW their socks off next Tuesday by winning 8-10 pts!
50,000 in Jax, 25,000 in Melbourne on the same day for the President, right??
FL will go for President Bush.
(both in FL)
I just called the superintendent of elections in my county in northern NJ to check that my registration was received. She said yes, I'm all set. But what she then volunteered bothered me a bit: 1) they accepted faxed applicatons this year because 2) the volume of registrants was so high.
I am suspicious--normally the rats are involved in election fraud to some degree (see 1960 Illinois presidential race) but this year it is wholesale.
Those numbers make me VERY happy! :o)
Completely agreed. When will the doom and gloom folks stop. Some of these people have been posting for years...
I went to the Jax rally on Saturday and let me tell you with a base like that BUSH IS NOT LOSING FLORIDA -- GET OVER IT. I just talked to a jazz college professor who said he voted for Gore in 2000 but now he is for W. (This is in FL). Another dem for Bush. There, FL is for W.
Haven't you people been listening anyway? The race has tightened in Hawaii! Kerry's losing. We have the momentum, we have the lead in WI, IA, NM, maybe even MN - FL is for W, and I think OH is, too. Who cares about the Dow indicators -- hasn't anyone realized this is an election like no other. But maybe we'll start blaming Bush for the high gas prices, too. I'll give you an indicator --
Kerry is losing ground and defending Gore states.
Bush is fighting for Gore states.
Florida is energized.
No incumbent has ever lost after the debates with a lead.
Bush has doubled the black vote from 2000.
Bush has closed the gap on the women vote from 2000.
Bush has a fired up conservative Christian/Catholic base that will be out in arms like they weren't in 2000.
W IS FOR WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!
So keep working hard for W, get out the vote, cast your vote either by early voting, absentee, or on Nov 2, and relax as you watch Dan Rather implode on the election night when he announces that W has won by a much larger margin than thought possible!!!
Jeb was lucky though that his opponent pretty much flubbed one of their last debates. He sank after that. Still the Dem was well financed and the Dems threw everything they could at Jeb.
Repubs also did well in '02 though because GWB's approval ratings were very high. So it is tough to see many parallels between then and now. We just have to hope the American people show good sense.
I'll believe this when it actually happens.
The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has overturned the rulings by Clinton appointed judges forcing Ohio and Michigan to use provisional ballots.
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