Electoral College Update-Commentary from RealClearPolitics.com (Great news for Bush)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/25/2004 | J. McIntyre

[EDINVA]

*** low audience should equal low votes ***

if you can't get your base out for an in-person appearance by one of the people at the top of the ticket, how do you get them out to stand in line to vote?

[No Blue States]

Exactly, if they wont show up for free entertainment it does not bode well for a boring voting line to wait in.
(heheheheheheheheheh)

[MplsSteve]

You're right.

But I think we all agree that the formula for 270 EV's is a lot simpler and less gut-wrenching than having to do it the other ways.

Having said that, I'm going to the B-C'04 office in St Paul again tonight...and do GOTV work.

I wanna make Minnesota a red state!

[WOSG]

Quit the doom and gloom ... yes, these are all concerns, but the fact is, Kerry is a lousy candidate, Bush is the better man and Bush is winning.

BUSH IS UP 3%-5% in national polls, and as pointed out
BUSH LEADS IN IA, NM, WI, and MN!!! That plus Bush's
solid states is about 259 electoral votes.

He is also up in Florida. GAME OVER.

It's this simple: If the election were held at *any* day since labor day, Bush would have won. If the election were today or tomorrow, Bush would win ... we dont just see history though, WE MAKE HISTORY.

Dont spread doom and gloom. Spread a message of SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BUSH!

[Ciexyz]

Let's keep working, fellow FReepers, to push Bush over the finish line with a bangup win.

[Ciexyz]

Voters knew where Gore stood.

Good point. Voters considered Gore a boring, droning speaker who hugged trees, but they knew what they were voting for.

All we know for sure about Kerry's positions is that he'll give away the store...after taking it out of our pockets first.

[Coop]

Having said that, I'm going to the B-C'04 office in St Paul again tonight...and do GOTV work.

I applaud your extra effort to help the campaign, and I hope others are inspired to join you!

[Coop]

The writing is on the wall. Read it.

I remember reading things like that in 2000 as well. History repeating itself...

[fortheDeclaration]

Rush is always a pessmist.

[chesty_puller]

I'm also getting tired of the Doom and Gloomers here

I'm gettin tired of discovering that on Mondays I become one. By Wed I'm just happy as a pig in $hit.

[Mister Mellow]

Fine. We'll see on Nov 3 who is right and who is the pessimist.

[Mister Mellow]

I agree. I just don't like pessimism when there's reason for optimism. I believe that pessimism ultimately does nothing but suppress voter turnout. I believe in critical optimism. That's why I say stay confident of W's victory and, at the same time, continue to work hard to GOTV for W.

[Coop]

So if I'm right, then you're the pessimist?

[Remember_Salamis]

306 - 352 EV for Bush!

[Remember_Salamis]

"There are way too many numbers that W has to overcome, that have NOT been overcome by anyone in the past. Dow is low since Labor day, that by itself is a powerful predictor. Right Track vs Wrong Track numbers are increasingly getting worse. However, even if those two cases were ignored, Liberal Cheating appratus is better placed this year than ever before. So much so that even RNC Chairman is pointing it out and for the first time EVER, the Voter Fraud Issue is being discussed in media. If Pubs show backbone for next 4 years and make election reform their priority, than things could change, but it is TOO LATE for this election cycle."

-- Here are my refutations point-by-point:

1. The "reflective market theory" is in play on Wall Street. A study done at AEI has found that there is almost an exact correlation between Kerry in the polls and the market's movement:

2. Right Track-Wrong Track is highly misleading. The poll includes those who feel America is moving too far to the LEFT! How many disgruntled republicans have you ran into on this board that are upset about the president's spending spree, immigration policy, and campaign finance reform? How many of these people are uninformed and see things like "gay marriage", "under god being removed from the pledge of allegiance", "rampant voter fraud", and other headlines sprawled across their newspaper? It a totally misleading poll, and Bushies Matthew Dowd has said so before. It's a myth, just like the myth that undecideds ALWAYS break for the challenger (that is only true in congressional races, nowhere else!). It is a poor indicator of who somebody is going to vote for. 3.

[MaryJaneNC]

I agree with you. He will break 300.

[prophetic]

why not 400+ ?

[The_Republican]

Good Points. However, one more number, that is equally bad and brand new wound for W is today's 'Consumer Confidence Index', lowest since March. This index is 5 points away from where Jimmy Carter was before his re-election campaign.

Point is that ALL of this bad news and ALL the cheating that has already taken place and WILL take place, CAN NOT be overcome by just W's 'Likeability'.

The ONLY thing that is keeping W barely afloat (actually he is drowning but we can still see his head above water - cheating would take him out) is that Kerry is such a hopeless loser that electorate doesn't know if he would only make things worse or not.

I think that during the final weekend, Libs would introduce just ONE more piece of bad news (most likely to be a lie), and it would NOT leave the electorate enough time logic out that Kerry is worse choice as the latest 'bad news' would be on their mind, and they are bound to go to voting booth and put F'ing ahead.