Electoral College Update-Commentary from RealClearPolitics.com (Great news for Bush)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/25/2004 | J. McIntyre

[IndianPrincessOK]

Monday,October 25 2004 ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.

In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.

As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.

While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.

Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.

While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.

As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.

Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. J. McIntyre 11:28 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend

[EDINVA]

*** low audience should equal low votes ***

if you can't get your base out for an in-person appearance by one of the people at the top of the ticket, how do you get them out to stand in line to vote?

[No Blue States]

Exactly, if they wont show up for free entertainment it does not bode well for a boring voting line to wait in.
(heheheheheheheheheh)

[MplsSteve]

You're right.

But I think we all agree that the formula for 270 EV's is a lot simpler and less gut-wrenching than having to do it the other ways.

Having said that, I'm going to the B-C'04 office in St Paul again tonight...and do GOTV work.

I wanna make Minnesota a red state!

[WOSG]

Quit the doom and gloom ... yes, these are all concerns, but the fact is, Kerry is a lousy candidate, Bush is the better man and Bush is winning.

BUSH IS UP 3%-5% in national polls, and as pointed out
BUSH LEADS IN IA, NM, WI, and MN!!! That plus Bush's
solid states is about 259 electoral votes.

He is also up in Florida. GAME OVER.

It's this simple: If the election were held at *any* day since labor day, Bush would have won. If the election were today or tomorrow, Bush would win ... we dont just see history though, WE MAKE HISTORY.

Dont spread doom and gloom. Spread a message of SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BUSH!

[Ciexyz]

Let's keep working, fellow FReepers, to push Bush over the finish line with a bangup win.

[Ciexyz]

Voters knew where Gore stood.

Good point. Voters considered Gore a boring, droning speaker who hugged trees, but they knew what they were voting for.

All we know for sure about Kerry's positions is that he'll give away the store...after taking it out of our pockets first.

[Coop]

Having said that, I'm going to the B-C'04 office in St Paul again tonight...and do GOTV work.

I applaud your extra effort to help the campaign, and I hope others are inspired to join you!

[Coop]

The writing is on the wall. Read it.

I remember reading things like that in 2000 as well. History repeating itself...

[fortheDeclaration]

Rush is always a pessmist.

[chesty_puller]

I'm also getting tired of the Doom and Gloomers here

I'm gettin tired of discovering that on Mondays I become one. By Wed I'm just happy as a pig in $hit.

[Mister Mellow]

Fine. We'll see on Nov 3 who is right and who is the pessimist.

[Mister Mellow]

I agree. I just don't like pessimism when there's reason for optimism. I believe that pessimism ultimately does nothing but suppress voter turnout. I believe in critical optimism. That's why I say stay confident of W's victory and, at the same time, continue to work hard to GOTV for W.

[Coop]

So if I'm right, then you're the pessimist?

[Remember_Salamis]

306 - 352 EV for Bush!

[Remember_Salamis]

"There are way too many numbers that W has to overcome, that have NOT been overcome by anyone in the past. Dow is low since Labor day, that by itself is a powerful predictor. Right Track vs Wrong Track numbers are increasingly getting worse. However, even if those two cases were ignored, Liberal Cheating appratus is better placed this year than ever before. So much so that even RNC Chairman is pointing it out and for the first time EVER, the Voter Fraud Issue is being discussed in media. If Pubs show backbone for next 4 years and make election reform their priority, than things could change, but it is TOO LATE for this election cycle."

-- Here are my refutations point-by-point:

1. The "reflective market theory" is in play on Wall Street. A study done at AEI has found that there is almost an exact correlation between Kerry in the polls and the market's movement:

2. Right Track-Wrong Track is highly misleading. The poll includes those who feel America is moving too far to the LEFT! How many disgruntled republicans have you ran into on this board that are upset about the president's spending spree, immigration policy, and campaign finance reform? How many of these people are uninformed and see things like "gay marriage", "under god being removed from the pledge of allegiance", "rampant voter fraud", and other headlines sprawled across their newspaper? It a totally misleading poll, and Bushies Matthew Dowd has said so before. It's a myth, just like the myth that undecideds ALWAYS break for the challenger (that is only true in congressional races, nowhere else!). It is a poor indicator of who somebody is going to vote for. 3.

[MaryJaneNC]

I agree with you. He will break 300.

[prophetic]

why not 400+ ?

[The_Republican]

Good Points. However, one more number, that is equally bad and brand new wound for W is today's 'Consumer Confidence Index', lowest since March. This index is 5 points away from where Jimmy Carter was before his re-election campaign.

Point is that ALL of this bad news and ALL the cheating that has already taken place and WILL take place, CAN NOT be overcome by just W's 'Likeability'.

The ONLY thing that is keeping W barely afloat (actually he is drowning but we can still see his head above water - cheating would take him out) is that Kerry is such a hopeless loser that electorate doesn't know if he would only make things worse or not.

I think that during the final weekend, Libs would introduce just ONE more piece of bad news (most likely to be a lie), and it would NOT leave the electorate enough time logic out that Kerry is worse choice as the latest 'bad news' would be on their mind, and they are bound to go to voting booth and put F'ing ahead.