Posted on 10/20/2004 8:15:30 AM PDT by HardHat
Am I the only one who smells some Kerry-favor spinning here? Suddenly a NEW way to look at likely voters? Me thinks they wanted the headline to be not all that damaging for Kerry and decided a "new formula" might just do the trick... Let's see how RCP posts it. Check it out:
Bush Leads by Eight Points - or Two - Depending on Definition of Likely Voters
Race Appears Tighter in Swing States
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- With only two weeks to go before the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry, but the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters. And in 17 swing states -- in which votes for President Bush and Vice President Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections -- Senator Kerry is doing better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead. However, the sampling error on this sub-sample in the swing states is substantially higher than for the nationwide sample. These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between October 14 and 17, 2004. Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which case it would be wrong to exclude them. Adding to the confusion about how to define likely voters (and Harris Interactive(R) has not yet decided which definition to use in our final predictions) this poll suggests that Senator Kerry may be doing better in the swing states, in which the battle for electoral college votes will be decided. In 17 swing states (where the total popular vote was tied 48% to 48% in the 2000 election) this poll shows Senator Kerry with a seven-point lead using one definition of likely voters (51% to 44%) and a tie using the other definition (47% each). While these numbers should be treated with caution because of the small sample sizes, they suggest the possibility that the popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they did in 2000. This poll also confirms that most likely voters (86%) believe they have made up their minds and will not change them. Bush supporters are more likely than Kerry supporters to say this. However, Kerry supporters (45%) are a little more likely than Bush supporters (39%) to believe that the result of this election will make a great deal of difference to them or their families -- which may increase their likely turnout. Another pair of questions shed light on the reasons why people are supporting the two candidates. Most voters for Bush and for Kerry say they are voting more for their choice rather than against his opponent. However, 40 percent of Kerry supporters say their vote is more a vote against Bush than for Kerry, while only 17 percent of Bush supporters say they are voting mainly against Kerry.
TABLE 1 BUSH VS. KERRY
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused": Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters (1) (2) % % George W. Bush 48 51 John Kerry 46 43 Ralph Nader 1 1 Other 1 1 Not sure/Refused 4 4 Bush Lead 2 8
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=820). Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in 2000 (n=755).
TABLE 2 BUSH VS. KERRY IN 17 SWING STATES
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused": Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters in Swing States Likely Voters Likely Voters (1) (2) % % George W. Bush 44 47 John Kerry 51 47 Ralph Nader * * Other 1 1 Not sure/Refused 4 4 Bush Lead -7 -
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=319). Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in 2000 (n=293). NOTE: This table is based on only 319 and 293 likely voters with a larger sampling error (plus or minus 6 percentage points) than for Table 1. * = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 3 MADE UP MIND OR MAY CHANGE IT
"As far as your voting in the presidential election on November 2nd, have you...?" Base: Likely Voters Likely Election Preference: Voters Bush Kerry % % % Firmly made your decision and won't change your mind 86 91 84 Made a decision but still might change your mind 7 6 9 Not made up your mind yet 7 4 6
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
TABLE 4 HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE RESULT WILL MAKE
"How much difference do you think the result of the election for president will make to you and your family -- a great deal of difference, quite a lot, not much, or no difference at all?"
Base: Likely Voters or Already Voted Likely Election Preference: Voters Bush Kerry % % % A great deal of difference 43 39 45 Quite a lot 30 30 31 Not much 19 23 19 No difference at all 6 5 4 Not sure/Refused 1 2 *
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=828 for Likely Voters or Already Voted). Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. * = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 5 ARE BUSH VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST KERRY?
"Is your support for President George Bush more a vote for George Bush OR a vote against John Kerry?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer George W. Bush Total % For George W. Bush 82 Against John Kerry 17 Not sure/Refused 1
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=428 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Bush).
TABLE 6 ARE KERRY VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST BUSH?
"Is your support for Senator John Kerry more a vote for John Kerry OR a vote against George Bush?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer John Kerry Total % For John Kerry 58 Against George W. Bush 40 Not sure/Refused 2
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=383 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Kerry).
Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 14 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016 adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The two definitions of likely voters are based on samples of 820 and 755, and the two samples of likely voters in swing states are 319 and 293. In theory, with a probability sample of this size (820 or 755), one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Statistical precision for the likely voters in swing states samples (319 and 293) is plus or minus 6 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J22300 Q439, Q440, Q441, Q442, Q443, Q445
About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com) is a global research firm that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and application. Well known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Rochester, New York-based Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help its clients around the world achieve clear, material and enduring results. Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through its U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com), Paris-based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, recently acquired U.S.-based WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com) and through a global network of affiliate firms. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
Keep repeating what to myself? I am not sure what you mean.
Face it. No one has a good idea of who is going to show up and vote this year but most seem to agree that turnout is going to be much higher than in 2000 or 1996. Interest in the race is much higher. People are actually choosing to watch the debates over Championship Baseball Series. I dont think the old conservative way of defining likely voters is correct this year. I think we ought to treat these polls as entertainment and work like we were five points behind.
So, using the changing percentages, the numbers polled, and the different definitions between "likely" voters, I find that 8 Bush supporters said they were absolutely certain they were going to vote, but didn't bother to vote in 2000, whereas 53 Kerry supporters said they were absolutely certain they were going to vote, but didn't in 2000. It seems to me, this is more an indication of the honesty of the two parties than anything. If Bush supporters weren't sure they would vote, they said so, but a lot of Kerry supporters would say, "Yeah, I'm definitely gonna vote", but probably couldn't tell you what day of the week November 2 is.
For as long as I can remember, "likely voters" was deemed the most valuable predicter, portrayed as more accurate than "registered voters". And that made sense, didn't it?
This year for the first time, (unless I'm listening with my brain turned off), the talking heads seem to be putting more stock in "registered voters. I specifically heard Ed Henry of The Hotline doing it on C-Span the other morning, and Judy Woodruff as well. In both instances, the "likely voter" results they cited were more favorable to Bush, the "registered voter" results more favorable to Kerry.
I don't know the logic the MSM is using...my eyes glaze over at an article like this...but on the surface, it sure seems an effort to downplay Bush's lead.
Very possibly because they cant understand why so many polls can come out that are so different. One of the biggest differences beween the polls is how the define likely voters.
Bush Leads by Eight Points - or Two - Depending on...whether the "Likely Voter" is dead or alive.
It's weird because I have seen a numbers of polls where RV were more likely for Bush than LV. That is completely against the conventional wisdom. IIRC, the Ohio poll that showed Kerry up was that way and the Fox News Opinion Dynamics poll released yesterday was also that way.
Bush can be doing better in the states that Gore carried in 2000, especially the large ones like NY, NJ, IL, and CA and be doing more poorly in states like Ohio which he carried last time. Rassmussen and others who have shown BAttleground state composite polls have shown them to be more tight than national polling. Even when Bush was up by four or five points nationally in Rassmussen he was tied in the Battleground states.
What no one is saying is that if this is real (I haven't seen it on Real Clear Politics yet)then:
1) Fox, Gallup and Newsweak look more and more like the real deal.
2) We've got us a major trend.
Harris is reputable and bigtime. As opposed to say, Newsweak.
I think Harris was the only one to predict Reagan would win big, and take over 50% of the popular vote, in 1980. Some say polling has gotten better since then. I don't know. With cell phones and caller ID I have to wonder if they can ever get an accurate reading.
No way Bush is up 8 nationally and down in the swing states UNLESS the majority of swing states are Gores. And just how small is that same??
Bush is up..and that is the trend
However you interpret this poll, there's one thing about it that's bad for us without question. It shows that in terms of registering brand new voters, the Democrats have us beat badly, so much so that it makes a 6 point difference when you include them. Whether these people show up to vote or not remains to be seen.
A 5% margin of error in a single state poll is suspect.
If Bush is up by 8, the swing states are Maryland and New Jersey...
A 6% MoE?????????? Gads this is a joke.
national poll = no matter
IA,FL,MN,NM,OH,PA,WI = polls matter (all of these have 1 or more polls showing a kerry lead)
that is where kerry has been campaigning, scaring the seniors, blacks, college kids, etc.
Bush should be ahead and has to be substantially ahead (6+ pts) on November 1st in those states if he is going to be able to overcome voter fraud, etc.
I agree 100%. Kicking butt in the popular vote won't matter unless we can firm up the president's Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin numbers. They need to wins out of the range to be affected by fraud and lawsuits.
The 'swing states' invlude states that I dont really think are swing states such as MI, WA and PA. Huge populations that skew the results of a swing state poll towards Kerry.
sorry :(
i guess i am a pessimist at heart.
BTW - i've been a loyal Freeper for years
The one thing I do not understand is how if Kerry had one, he could totally keep it secret for all these years.
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