Bush can be doing better in the states that Gore carried in 2000, especially the large ones like NY, NJ, IL, and CA and be doing more poorly in states like Ohio which he carried last time. Rassmussen and others who have shown BAttleground state composite polls have shown them to be more tight than national polling. Even when Bush was up by four or five points nationally in Rassmussen he was tied in the Battleground states.
I just don't buy it. The pollsters are trying to make it a closer race than really exists. When the race is over, they're done for four years. They want to seem relevant right up until the end.