[wireman]

If he's doing better in liberal bastions like California, Illinois, and New York, why would he be faring poorly in traditional Republican states like Ohio?

I just don't buy it. The pollsters are trying to make it a closer race than really exists. When the race is over, they're done for four years. They want to seem relevant right up until the end.

[Dave S]

If he's doing better in liberal bastions like California, Illinois, and New York, why would he be faring poorly in traditional Republican states like Ohio?

Because Dems are spending more on ads and get out the vote efforts in those states than ever before. The battle is in the battleground states.

[Tennessean4Bush]

If he's doing better in liberal bastions like California, Illinois, and New York, why would he be faring poorly in traditional Republican states like Ohio?

You have broken the code. You are right in your instincts. Is there anyone that can say with a straight face that Bush might win the popular vote by 6-8% and still lose a republican leaning state like Ohio by 2-3% (an 8-11% swing). No way that FL or Ohio varies that much from the national average. in fact, if Bush wins nationally by 6% he will win Ohio and FL by at least that much, 5% at the least.