Posted on 10/20/2004 8:15:30 AM PDT by HardHat
Am I the only one who smells some Kerry-favor spinning here? Suddenly a NEW way to look at likely voters? Me thinks they wanted the headline to be not all that damaging for Kerry and decided a "new formula" might just do the trick... Let's see how RCP posts it. Check it out:
Bush Leads by Eight Points - or Two - Depending on Definition of Likely Voters
Race Appears Tighter in Swing States
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- With only two weeks to go before the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry, but the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters. And in 17 swing states -- in which votes for President Bush and Vice President Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections -- Senator Kerry is doing better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead. However, the sampling error on this sub-sample in the swing states is substantially higher than for the nationwide sample. These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between October 14 and 17, 2004. Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which case it would be wrong to exclude them. Adding to the confusion about how to define likely voters (and Harris Interactive(R) has not yet decided which definition to use in our final predictions) this poll suggests that Senator Kerry may be doing better in the swing states, in which the battle for electoral college votes will be decided. In 17 swing states (where the total popular vote was tied 48% to 48% in the 2000 election) this poll shows Senator Kerry with a seven-point lead using one definition of likely voters (51% to 44%) and a tie using the other definition (47% each). While these numbers should be treated with caution because of the small sample sizes, they suggest the possibility that the popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they did in 2000. This poll also confirms that most likely voters (86%) believe they have made up their minds and will not change them. Bush supporters are more likely than Kerry supporters to say this. However, Kerry supporters (45%) are a little more likely than Bush supporters (39%) to believe that the result of this election will make a great deal of difference to them or their families -- which may increase their likely turnout. Another pair of questions shed light on the reasons why people are supporting the two candidates. Most voters for Bush and for Kerry say they are voting more for their choice rather than against his opponent. However, 40 percent of Kerry supporters say their vote is more a vote against Bush than for Kerry, while only 17 percent of Bush supporters say they are voting mainly against Kerry.
TABLE 1 BUSH VS. KERRY
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused": Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters (1) (2) % % George W. Bush 48 51 John Kerry 46 43 Ralph Nader 1 1 Other 1 1 Not sure/Refused 4 4 Bush Lead 2 8
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=820). Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in 2000 (n=755).
TABLE 2 BUSH VS. KERRY IN 17 SWING STATES
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused": Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters in Swing States Likely Voters Likely Voters (1) (2) % % George W. Bush 44 47 John Kerry 51 47 Ralph Nader * * Other 1 1 Not sure/Refused 4 4 Bush Lead -7 -
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=319). Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in 2000 (n=293). NOTE: This table is based on only 319 and 293 likely voters with a larger sampling error (plus or minus 6 percentage points) than for Table 1. * = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 3 MADE UP MIND OR MAY CHANGE IT
"As far as your voting in the presidential election on November 2nd, have you...?" Base: Likely Voters Likely Election Preference: Voters Bush Kerry % % % Firmly made your decision and won't change your mind 86 91 84 Made a decision but still might change your mind 7 6 9 Not made up your mind yet 7 4 6
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
TABLE 4 HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE RESULT WILL MAKE
"How much difference do you think the result of the election for president will make to you and your family -- a great deal of difference, quite a lot, not much, or no difference at all?"
Base: Likely Voters or Already Voted Likely Election Preference: Voters Bush Kerry % % % A great deal of difference 43 39 45 Quite a lot 30 30 31 Not much 19 23 19 No difference at all 6 5 4 Not sure/Refused 1 2 *
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=828 for Likely Voters or Already Voted). Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. * = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 5 ARE BUSH VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST KERRY?
"Is your support for President George Bush more a vote for George Bush OR a vote against John Kerry?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer George W. Bush Total % For George W. Bush 82 Against John Kerry 17 Not sure/Refused 1
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=428 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Bush).
TABLE 6 ARE KERRY VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST BUSH?
"Is your support for Senator John Kerry more a vote for John Kerry OR a vote against George Bush?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer John Kerry Total % For John Kerry 58 Against George W. Bush 40 Not sure/Refused 2
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote (n=383 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Kerry).
Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 14 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016 adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The two definitions of likely voters are based on samples of 820 and 755, and the two samples of likely voters in swing states are 319 and 293. In theory, with a probability sample of this size (820 or 755), one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Statistical precision for the likely voters in swing states samples (319 and 293) is plus or minus 6 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J22300 Q439, Q440, Q441, Q442, Q443, Q445
About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com) is a global research firm that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and application. Well known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Rochester, New York-based Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help its clients around the world achieve clear, material and enduring results. Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through its U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com), Paris-based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, recently acquired U.S.-based WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com) and through a global network of affiliate firms. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
then put your shoes back on.
The Harris guys took one look at their LV results showing "W" romping away with an 8 point lead and said "HOLY SH&%! WHAT THE HELL DO WE DO NOW?? I know! Let's monkey around with the definition of likely voter!"
Harris has a remarkably accurate record in national polling.
4M+ evangelicals stayed home in 2000 due to the DUI smear and the rumor that Bush would not support life.
So, maybe Bush is up 10?
Not to make light, as I hate this, but typical rabid Dim supporter - he was not quite firing on all cylinders. A year ago he took his own life with a 12 guage placed under his chin.
Zogby claims that is a myth. On the other hand my wife cannot wait to vote and she has not voted since the 80's.
I noticed that too. Typical transparent sophomoric attempt.
Only thirteen days until we don't have to hear about Election 2004 polls anymore.
They do. They were closer than even Zogby in 2000.
I'd rather have the additional information they present, and to see what goes into their assumptions in analyzing the results, than for them to just come out and declare one set of numbers as being "correct". At least this way we can see the possible range of outcomes. The fact is no one really knows how best to define likely voter this year. Why should a pollster try to pretend that know any better?
Let me add, however, that a pollster who would release a poll with a 6 percent margin of error compromises his credibility.
I personally, within my circle of friends and family, know of about 8 people who didnt vote in 2000, that are going to vote for Bush.
If I know just 8 people who didnt vote in 2000, that will vote for Bush.. and I am just one person in Pennsylvania.. The statistics pretty much guarantee Bush is going to have bigger numbers compared to 2000.
The Kerry leading in Swings states polling is utter crap becasue of the states they count as 'swing states'. WA, OR, PA, MI are not the true swing states. They have a solid democratic base and have enormous populations. They skew the result of 'swing state' polling.
A little common sense applied here suggests that neither definition will likely prove completely correct.
Not everyone who says, "I ABSOLUTELY will vote on Nov 2," will actually vote.
But, some people who didn't vote in 2000, though they were eligible, will vote this time.
Considering how bitter this election has become, I think that number of new voters will be significant. I believe turnout will likely be higher than 2000.
Thus, some number of the folks who didn't vote in 2000, but could will vote this year. The obvious question is, "How many?" How many of those that could but didn't vote will vote this time?
The less obvious question is, how will their votes breakout? Harris is telling us that the majority of these voters are for Kerry. But that doesn't mean that a similar ratio of the individuals in this group WHO ACTUALLY DO VOTE ON NOV 2 will vote for Kerry. In fact, it may be that the individuals brought into the process mirror the voting patterns of existing voters.
The safest bet is to split the difference between the two results, yielding President Bush up by 5.
If President Bush takes the popular vote by a margin of 5%, all the hullaballoo about "battleground states" will be meaningless. No one loses the electoral vote in a predominantly two-way race with a 5% popular margin.
lol. Keep repeating it to yourself.
Agreed.
Please make sure your 8 friends turn out and vote! See my post #45. He was sure he'd vote, too. Although we Bush supporters actually have reasons and deep convictions.
more conflicting polling data.......bottom line it is too close to call. I think this election will be a surprise one way or another. It is hard for me to judge the nation being I am in LA and it is sKERRY here...! But I know this is Whacko Hollywood and I do not think the rest of the nation is supporting the M. Moore vision for America.
I can't believe we are being led by Actors, Propagandists and socialist writers in the press. I ask you how huge is this election. I cringe to think we would lose to the likes and pressures of Chiraq, UN and Deaniacs posing as Kerry supporters within our borders........
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