national poll = no matter
IA,FL,MN,NM,OH,PA,WI = polls matter (all of these have 1 or more polls showing a kerry lead)
that is where kerry has been campaigning, scaring the seniors, blacks, college kids, etc.
Bush should be ahead and has to be substantially ahead (6+ pts) on November 1st in those states if he is going to be able to overcome voter fraud, etc.
I agree 100%. Kicking butt in the popular vote won't matter unless we can firm up the president's Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin numbers. They need to wins out of the range to be affected by fraud and lawsuits.