Posted on 10/19/2004 7:39:42 PM PDT by TBBT
When asked - Frank said that the President has the momentum at the moment in the national polls. However, the race is really close in the Electoral College.
He said that due to increased voter registration and the last remaining undecided voters - who tend to break towards the challenger - he believes that Bush will need at least a 3 point lead in the popular vote (national polls) to win enough battle ground states to win the electoral college.
He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.
LOL! To get your whole fifteen minutes of fame, you have to be very slow.
It sounds to me like Luntz is talking about voter fraud without saying the words. I hope Ashcroft sticks around long enough to fill all federal prisons full of Democratic operatives.
I agree, except that the first debate got Kerry back in the game, and gave him his 40% chance of winning back, which was eroding away. So the debates did matter. It gave Kerry back his base, and energized it. And it will mean a higher turnout than otherwise, from the wrong precincts.
RCP just updated the polls. I think several have improved. EV: Bush 227 - Kerry 210 .
So if you are talking about perceptions, you are probably correct.
If you are talking about measurables, then the debates had no lasting effect.
Just more bullsh*t from the liberal loons...all they can do is lie through their rotten teeth. They've seen the internal numbers...like I've said; the rat party is gasping for air...they're now working on saving the rat party...they all ready know they've lost this presidential election. ;o) By huge numbers. 320+
I dunno, I haven't studied the '44 headlines. Have you?
Is it just me, or does it seem like Bush has a "natural" lead of about 4 to 5 points? What I mean is Bush's numbers go down on Kerry attacks, debates, events in the news... but once the effect of those events taper off, Bush begins to drift back toward his "natural" lead...
I detest Nightline too. I despise Ted (commie) Koppel.
Based on prior turnout models, the center of gravity in the popular vote, is about Bush +3%. Be very afraid when you see polls with Bush running well in New Jersey, Maryland, and California. Granted if Bush really wins by 3% in the popular vote, the odds are about 90% that he will win the electoral college. The big unknown now is turnout models. Who will show up to the polls? I tend to discount this theory that a massive number of evangelicals will show up to the polls for Bush, who did not vote previously by the way.
Well I know the headlines were good about the war in November 1944. Victories everywhere, every day.
I got bored and hung up just reading your post so I can imagine how bad it must be for those who have even less interest.
my guess - based on the Nielsen debate ratings - is that turnout will be less than 1992, more than 2000. Somewhere in between...
The polls are biased. "Do you think my next call will be 2010 or so?" Only if you call them.
I can only speak for myself but here in Minnesota, we're fighting to give Bush our 10 electoral votes.
Right now, it's a dead heat and many of us are working hard to screw it up for Kerry.
All we can do is work hard for the next two weeks and hope it works out for the best.
The good news, if there is such a thing these days, is that the private polling by Republicans in at least our state (which has a history of being more accurate than nationally reported polling), has Bush with 6-8% lead, depending on the day. Zogby gives him +3 in our state, the rest +5. They are wrong. WE can already tell where Bush's coattails ARE and ARE NOT with out internals. If everyone is so wrong about one state, which is not currently a battleground, I doubt much of what has been reported in national polling. We battle two major city MSM markets plus one secondary city market. WE have major universities and industry but it is the outstaters--the small businessmen and farmers--not the students--who determine who runs our government. we also are 36% conservative Christian voters statewide, a little reported secret asset of the Bush campaign.
Barring a major surprise against Bush the last weekend (one like the DUI, not something terrorist), W. is going to carry our state big---and I KNOW he will others as well.
I hope that's Ohio you're talking about.
They reported on the local news here in Missouri tonight that in many counties, including the big ones like St. Louis County and St. Louis City there are more registered voters than there are residents of voting age. They said it may not be fraud so much as it takes more than four years to get someone off the voting lists when someone moves. I believe that is due to Federal law.
Bush 41 was behind in August after Dukakis convention. That lead was gone well before the debates. After the debates it wasnt even close. Dukakis lead was lost during the Summer, not two weeks before the election.
If only.....I'm in Missouri...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.