I agree, except that the first debate got Kerry back in the game, and gave him his 40% chance of winning back, which was eroding away. So the debates did matter. It gave Kerry back his base, and energized it. And it will mean a higher turnout than otherwise, from the wrong precincts.
So if you are talking about perceptions, you are probably correct.
If you are talking about measurables, then the debates had no lasting effect.