I dunno, I haven't studied the '44 headlines. Have you?
Is it just me, or does it seem like Bush has a "natural" lead of about 4 to 5 points? What I mean is Bush's numbers go down on Kerry attacks, debates, events in the news... but once the effect of those events taper off, Bush begins to drift back toward his "natural" lead...
Based on prior turnout models, the center of gravity in the popular vote, is about Bush +3%. Be very afraid when you see polls with Bush running well in New Jersey, Maryland, and California. Granted if Bush really wins by 3% in the popular vote, the odds are about 90% that he will win the electoral college. The big unknown now is turnout models. Who will show up to the polls? I tend to discount this theory that a massive number of evangelicals will show up to the polls for Bush, who did not vote previously by the way.
Well I know the headlines were good about the war in November 1944. Victories everywhere, every day.