Posted on 10/19/2004 7:39:42 PM PDT by TBBT
When asked - Frank said that the President has the momentum at the moment in the national polls. However, the race is really close in the Electoral College.
He said that due to increased voter registration and the last remaining undecided voters - who tend to break towards the challenger - he believes that Bush will need at least a 3 point lead in the popular vote (national polls) to win enough battle ground states to win the electoral college.
He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.
Nope. As a matter of fact, I ignored the last poll (due to the fact that Gallup tries to allocate undecideds in their last one). I looked at it from both a month out and the second to last poll for that writeup, and again later (not written) for other timeframes such as two weeks.
What I found is that the undecideds at any of those periods either 1) break for the incumbent in a substantial way, 2) break evenly, or 3) break ever so slightly towards the challenger-- and the times that #3 was the case happened to be in races that were already blowouts.
091351-birth date
I sure hope and pray it will.
My fear is Bush will lose his lead in the last week. Losing a lead this narrow would give Kerry the win for sure.
Man, I can't wait until November gets here. :)
No erosion I see, indeed maybe even an accretion. Keep the faith baby. Of course, Bush would not be ahead by a couple or three percent in Florida if there was a massive erosion. The small Bush accretion among Jews would not be enough.
By the way, on that topic, who is your wife voting for this time?
Castro has organized phone banks for Kerry.
Post #89
Bush.
YEAH!!!!!!
Did he say he was factoring in the Cartoon Dems and the Fairytale contingency. Marry Poppins was heard earlier today saying don't count them out.
It wasn't a blowout in 1980 two weeks out was it?
Well, that "means" Bush in on track maybe for 25% of the Jewish vote, maybe 30% if he gets lucky.
I detest Nightline.
I will review, but I don't think Veeps count, and this election does have a slight chance of reflecting the 1980 situation, although only in direction, not degree. That is the most analogous election in my view - potentially.
Luntz is trying to account for the 3% vote fraud you will see from the Democrats, just like in 2000. He can't *say* that - but that's what he's talking about. The rest is just blather.
My dad was at his doctor's office yesterday, as he said "sittin' there with a bunch of old people" (all Cuban-Americans) when he struck up a conversation with one of them.
He started talking about the coming election, and everyone chimed in, until Dad said that he was voting for Kerry.
He said that the room went dead quiet, and everyone started glaring at him, withe the exception of one old guy.
Then Dad said that he was joking, and everyone relaxed and started talking about how they had to support Bush, except the old guy who had not glared at him earlier.
He shoved his face into a newspaper until his name was called by the nurse.
According to Dad's "survey"...90% Bush.
rw, don't go squishy! Fear not. Greater is He that is in you than he that is in the world.
They had a Presidential debate one week before the election. According to pollsters at that time, it changed things mightily and there was no time afterwards for Carter to bounce back.
Unusual circumstances breed unusual results.
There is little trouble in the States you reference for Bush. Bush will win handily in each and most polls have consistently had him winning. There is no way he will win the national polls and lose quite the contrary. In addition, he is poised to take as many as five to seven of Gore's states and will do very well in the ones he loses.
The Greatest generation votes RAT so its exit is a plus for Bush. Polls show Bush leading all other age groups including Boomers.
This will either be a blowout for Bush or a 2-3% victory.
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