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Posted on 10/19/2004 7:39:42 PM PDT by TBBT
When asked - Frank said that the President has the momentum at the moment in the national polls. However, the race is really close in the Electoral College.
He said that due to increased voter registration and the last remaining undecided voters - who tend to break towards the challenger - he believes that Bush will need at least a 3 point lead in the popular vote (national polls) to win enough battle ground states to win the electoral college.
He states that conventional wisdom says it's one thing to register a lot of new voters, but it’s another to get them to the polls. However, he said he thinks this year is going to be different and therefore he is predicting a record turn out. He says this factor will favor Kerry, making up ground for Kerry by about 0.5%. He says that the remaining undecided voters breaking for the challenger will give Kerry another 2.5%.
Regarding the broken glass thing, I heard on the radio that 75% of the electorate thinks this election will have a material effect on their lives, up from about 50% or less in previous elections. That portends a high turnout. Iraq is what is generating it I suspect, along with the stressing of lower middle class incomes and purchasing power after tax.
Yeah, very odd. But odder still are the polls showing Bush ahead with women and tied with men. Somebody is gonna be very surprised come election day.
Some day when I get to know you better I'll tell you what the Army said my IQ is. :-}
Thanks, I posted my view above. Dales' most excellent chart needs refinement, and commentary.
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Freeper Dales did the chart.
I think most pollsters say they do. Zogby has and Charlie Cook has said so too. I have heard people here say they don't but I have never seen any backup.
1944 election poll offers some interesting parallels.
HAVANA, Oct. 19, 2004 -- A multitude of unlikely volunteers is working the phones for Sen. John Kerry in the swing state of Florida. His campaign is unaware of the support, as the volunteers do not live in the United States, but in Communist-run Cuba.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250398/posts
Think of it this way. There are many cross conflicted voters in this election, and they are susceptible still to changing their mind. Obviously not my brothers and nephew (who think Bush is a clear and present danger) or I - and in my case I already voted, so if I go nutter, and need to be taken away in a strait jacket, it is too late for me to flip to the dark side as to my silly little meaningless vote in California.
Bush is up nationally because he is winning by landslide margins in the South, but he could still lose the electoral college.
So Luis, what will be Bush's percentage of the Cuban vote in Florida this time? Just post the percentage.
Good to see you back by the way. I get withdrawal pains when my pals have to take involuntary leaves of absence.
Give me the six numbers for the Lotto while I type out my answer.
Could be true. The anti-Bush media is pouring it on. ABC's Nitghtline right now doing a show on Kerry accusing Bush of war mismanagement followed by visual argument saying Kerry is dead on correct.
Yeah well...my absence didn't improve Alan's poll numbers, so they let me back in.
011351 - birthdate.
Cuban vote for Bush 2004--89%
He was already up by landslide margins in the South prior to the debates. The bump in polling numbers will translate into a bump in the electoral college in the next week.
Interesting, but in November 1944 the war was going splendidly. The Battle of the Bulge had not yet happened. The headlines were all Patton.
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