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To: Torie
", and Dales is relying on just one poll apparently, and the last poll, and right now, what we are seeing is not the last polls, but polls two weeks out"

Nope. As a matter of fact, I ignored the last poll (due to the fact that Gallup tries to allocate undecideds in their last one). I looked at it from both a month out and the second to last poll for that writeup, and again later (not written) for other timeframes such as two weeks.

What I found is that the undecideds at any of those periods either 1) break for the incumbent in a substantial way, 2) break evenly, or 3) break ever so slightly towards the challenger-- and the times that #3 was the case happened to be in races that were already blowouts.

101 posted on 10/19/2004 8:50:01 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

It wasn't a blowout in 1980 two weeks out was it?


111 posted on 10/19/2004 8:54:00 PM PDT by Torie
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