Posted on 10/17/2004 2:05:36 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Bush 50%, Kerry 46% (Kerry -1% from yesterday)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
worked on the Bush Campaign in 2000 and I am working on it this year and I can tell you the difference is astounding. Working in Maine, the 2000 campaign had NO ground game at all. The headquarters in Bangor had a couple of older ladies, nice, but not very go get em attitudes. One phone for calls and that was it. This year is 180 degrees different. Phone banks, 72 Hour Campaign. Door to door...etc...this IS how to run a ground game and win. I am very happy with the level of organization.
I think you called it right
According to the polls, 2/3 of the audience was offended. I've yet to find anyone in the 1/3 that wasn't.
Kerry's comment exposed the real John Kerry.
I believe the comment will impact the race significantly as it is confirms what voters already suspected-- kerry is a rank opportunist. john kerry will always do what is good for john kerry--everyone else be damned--which explains his pathologic flip-flops.
Voters will necessarily conclude that kerry cannot be trusted in these perilous times.
Are your parents democrats?
The state polls are reflecting the polls from 1-2 weeks ago where it was a tied national race. If the national race is tied, it is highly likely close states like OH, FL, WI, NM etc are tied. However, Bush is up 2-8 pts nationally, with the lower range coming from pollsters who expect turnout to be as bad for the GOP as it was in 2000, so realistically OH, FL, and WI should show W leading and the next round of polls should confirm.
Actually, W is leading in FL, but we're just waiting for a reputable state pollster to come in with OH and WI numbers.
The trend from October 1st and then just after the last debate clearly shows that it favors the President. State polls always lag the national polls but I would have to say that the President is probably pretty happy right now. Getting back to the trend that I was talking about one can see this trend showing up in all the polls now.
If it ever really existed. The polls will become more accurate now as the election approaches. Polling firms will want their last few polls to be as close to actual results as possible. The accuracy (or truthfulness) of earlier polls, however, can never be known.
My parents are Republicans, but they don't normally vote or get into politics. But this year, they are really fired up. My father owns a small business, so he hates Kerry to the max with all his anti-business policies. My mother hated Jimmy Carter and she thinks Kerry is another Carter. She just mentioned to me today that her friends at her church are all voting for Bush, especially after that lesbian comment. Her comments really made my day, since I have been asking her to try to convert them to Bush. But it looks like Kerry did the work for me.
I'm more into the "rigging" theory on the discrepancy than anything else. What happened to the GWB contract since the first debate has made no sense to me, first, with respect to the fundamentals (like MSM bias - which is well known) of the contract, and second relative to the state contracts.
I'm suspicious. In other words, if some smart people who knew GW was going to win could convince a bunch of saps he wouldn't win by driving down the price, and they then bought up a bunch of contracts cheap the last two weeks before the election...???
I personally thought Bush tied #1, won #2, lost #3 (except for the lesbian comment). If you look at who won the debates, you really need to look at state by state. Check out these polls. Each state seems to have picked a different winner, with blue choosing Kerry, red Bush, and swing states mixed.
http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/Prez3DebateWinnerLoserPartyID041014.html
Someone on the tube today claimed that Kutnruns internals for Ohio showed him in front. Here in Iowa, unfortunately, my gut suggests W is down. I know folks that claimed they voted W last time and will not this time. So far no effort to inspire a big church turnout. Biggest and most enthusiastic effort I ever saw here was when Robertson was in the primary. That year was huge. W can still do it--but he needs someone to make an effort to fire up the base. Just not happening yet. Bringing in a Rudy or Pataki just is not the ticket. Somebody has miscalibrated this thing in this state. Romney was just here but that too is a nonevent. Most have no clue who he is and he sure is not going to inspire anyone. Come on W staff--get on this now or write us off now. W is the headliner, but if he cannot show, then everyday we need to see Laura, or Jeb. An evening event is a must for turnout. W has yet to appear in anything other than midday--and then in a fairly small venue of a few thousand.
Now move out.
Did someone find a link to internals yet? According to CBS, this poll says Kerry has 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 battleground states.
The Oregon survey by Riley Research Associates shows Bush with 48%-43%. Bush had a 1% lead in the Sept. poll. 4% are undecided.
On the other hand, The American Research Group says Kerry leads 49-44 in Oregon.
Question for anyone trained in statistics…
Is the margin of error reduced by combining multiple polls? Isn’t the margin of error a result of sample size? Hypothetical example:
If sampling 500 people results in a 5 point margin of error, 1000 people 4 points and 1500 people 3 points, wouldn’t combining the results of 3 polls using 500 people have a margin of error of 3 points?
I say this because Democrats are insisting that the race is a “dead heat”, within the margin of error. But those margins of error are for a solo poll, and when all are combined, the Bush lead is beyond the margin of error.
BREAKING NEWS: DU on mass suicide watch. The site is down. Spiked cider is being served to all DU members, as they await the mothership.
We still don't have this election locked up by any means, but I sure wouldn't want to trade positions with the RATs. W is back in the driver's seat, and the power of the Presidency will allow him to drive the agenda down the stretch.
However, one thing to keep in mind is that if this were truly a tied race, we would see roughly an equal number of polls showing W ahead as we would showing Kerry ahead. Because of the margin of error, both results would be valid.
That is not what we have today, however. Virtually every single poll shows W with a lead. This suggests that W is indeed ahead. We just can't statistically determine exactly how far ahead he is.
That is great. Were those people democrats?
Could someone with some math skills take the polls that RCP uses in their average and compute a margin of error for the combined polls? I would guess that the 4 % Bush lead would be outside the computed MOE.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.