WASHINGTON POST POLL: Bush 50%, Kerry 46%

Washington Post ^ | October 17, 2004

[West Coast Conservative]

Bush 50%, Kerry 46% (Kerry -1% from yesterday)

[Notwithstanding]

RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	10/13 - 10/16	49.0%	45.0%	1.7%	Bush +4.0
ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)*	10/14 - 10/16	50%	46%	2%	Bush +4
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	52%	44%	1%	Bush +8
Zogby (1211 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	46%	44%	1%	Bush +2
TIPP (786 LV)	10/13 - 10/16	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
Time (865 LV w/leaners)	10/14 - 10/15	48%	47%	3%	Bush +1
Newsweek (LV)	10/14 - 10/15	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/11 - 10/14	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5

[madison46]

Well the weekday polls were MORE in favor of Bush.

[LS]

Hearing from my Mont.County (OH) chairman that the "internals" number on Bush in OH he's hearing is +8. That jibes with two other "internals" reports I've heard, one from the Voinovich campaign doing separate polling.

[LS]

It would have to be a helluva lot of fraud to beat an 8-point spread and higher voter turnout for GOP, and that's the numbers I'm hearing from BC04 internally here in OH.

[Mister Mellow]

What's an "internal" report? And does that mean Bush is really up by 8-pts??

[goldstategop]

Its really more like 53% B - 46% K, which sounds about right. The polls tend to inflate the Democrat's level off support which is why you have to add a few points to get the correct numbers. The final outcome is going to be something approaching this stat. For the next two weeks the partisan media will tell you their findings are all over the place but when you cut through the noise, you'll find the internals are consistent. This election will offer no surprises except to Lefties who believe the country hates Bush as much as they do.

[TitansAFC]

This worries me because I consider a tie a Kerry win due to the Democrats not having any respect for the law. A tie goes Kerry's way due to vote fraud. To me, it's that simple. Bush needs to pull ahead in Ohio, and lately it seems he is instead falling behind.

Losing Ohio, despite what everyone says about WI and IA, would probably mean a concession speech from Bush by 11:00 p.m. EST. It is essential that Bush keep Florida and Ohio, I just can't see the math working out any other way. Yes, I know that taking WI and IA would make up for it, but that means Bush can't lose any of NV, AZ, NH, etc. etc...

To be frank, I just can't really see Bush winning without Ohio, despite the theoretical models out there.

Bush needs Ohio. OH and FL should be priorities #1 and #2 from here on out.

I am worried, but as always, cautiously optimistic (also read: guardedly concerned, but hopeful).

[LS]

Internal polls from the campaign. It means exactly what I said. Bush is leading by 8 according to two sets of internal polls.

[Notwithstanding]

[Aim Higher]

I'm a Boston Conservative. My husband and I registered to vote last week. As we were filling out our forms, I told him that even though sKerry will win Mass, it's important that we get our votes for Bush on the record.

Jenya....This is just wonderful to hear. What a true and loyal conservative, and supporter of our President, you and your husband are. I, too, feel passionately that it is important to get every single vote for George W. Bush on the record. Bravo to you and your husband!

[Mister Mellow]

If you avg the Bush pt-leads over Kerry it give Bush a 4.33% lead and you have to take the MSM-spin factor into account. So yeah, maybe there will be a windfall on Nov 2 in the tune of 53% Bush...

[edwin hubble]

Tradesports is headquartered in the UK.

I think they lag somewhat in getting their news read and analyzed.

European media is going to give a different impression,
and they probably aren't looking at the RCP site.

Iowa Market had Bush higher by about 4 points.
A someone skilled in arbitrage could make money here.

[traderrob6]

Have some pricy Bush contracts eh Ironclad?....Don't worry, be happy they will payoff

[goldstategop]

Bush will OH and he will win FL. I dunno about PA but it'll depend on turnout there. You can be sure though, that if PA IS called for Bush, election night will be a short one.

[Mister Mellow]

Bush is not losing AZ.

[madison46]

If NJ is called for Bush, then it could be start of something special

[comebacknewt]

It would have to be a helluva lot of fraud to beat an 8-point spread and higher voter turnout for GOP

That is precisely what I expect. A helluva lot of fraud. I don't think we can even imagine how much the RATs have planned.

Great to hear about those internals BTW.

[xzins]

Caution.

Rassmussen still has it fluctuating between 2 and 4.

He has consistently run lower numbers through September when the MSM was trying to create a "comeback" for Kerry in October.

They were saying 7 to 11 and Rasmussen kept his regular, plodding 2-4 percent lead.

Complacency is the enemy.

Better safe than sorry.

[goldstategop]

Looks like we're in agreement about the ballpark figure. Its not a blowout but its a decent win and it gives Bush a mandate. That's going to be a slap in the face to the Left which has been arguing for the last four years Bush was the "accidental" President, appointed by Rehnquist and Scalia due to all the votes not being counted in FL. If the Left can't stand Bush now, wait til you see what the next four years are going to be like for them - they'll probably grow even angrier, bitter, and unlikeable.

[rodguy911]

I heard Turezzuhs's income story several times.

The story I heard was even though she is worth

somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion

bucks she only showed income of 5 million. How you

do that I don't know. Her taxes paid were supposedly

$600,000 putting her roughly in the 12% bracket,

but it's o.k. cause she's a liberal.